4 minutes ago, Machete said:

I am REALLY hoping the 600K debut/3M in 3 months talk is being made up by HDD/tabloids and not coming from the mouths of Parkwood/Columbia execs on their expectations. Because when it obviously doesn't come close to happening, I hope that doesn't make them deter away from promoting the rest of the era...

I know Parkwood doesn’t have the audacity to throw these numbers out when they haven’t done anything to promote this album and they delayed the preorders 

it’s coming from tabloids for sure

4 minutes ago, Blue Rose said:

and they delayed the preorders 

Wait. Did I miss this? Are they not shipping out first week? 

5 minutes ago, Almost Home said:

I swear most of the time I see you posting about Bey it's some sort of concern trolling

 

Whatever that means...

4 minutes ago, Beyle Street said:

Even if the preorder numbers are much larger than we'd expect, 500-600k is...just not feasible. It's realllllllllyyyyy hard to get to those numbers unless you Taylor/Adele. Everything we've seen so far is setting up for a 200k+ debut which would be GOOD for Bey today. The 2016 chokehold that they and Hive chart pages got is mindblowing 

Why can't they just leave these prediction thing to Billboard or the label themselves; it's not their expertise.

I still think she's doing 500K+ idgaf

 

2 hours ago, ShouldersSideways said:

Someone told me they still count. It just waits until you're on wifi to register them

We need to get that figured out, because it makes NO sense that downloading a song to your device though AM would mean it’s no longer being streamed.

4 minutes ago, ShouldersSideways said:

I still think she's doing 500K+ idgaf

 

The only positive Hive 

I see her doing between 350k-500k. Bookmark me.

 

BMS video tomorrow since it's  days before the album.

 

 

If the album comes without any visual whatsoever how long before we freak out?

 

I would like to bump my 485k debut Prediction to 525k 

 

My prediction is 325-350k. 

2 hours ago, Beyle Street said:

I care for charts cause duh butttttttt I ain't doing all those extra miles just to get bragging rights on ATRL/Stan Twitter. Streaming parties and buying multiple copies of said song/album through loopholes? Leave that to the babies cause chile

Yeah I'm literally too old for that all that 

BMS staying in the top 10 for this long is enough for me. 

Bey still has mad GP appeal. If the music is likeable (which I know it will) it will take off on its own.

 

2 minutes ago, Devin said:

Bey still has mad GP appeal. If the music is likeable (which I know it will) it will take off on its own.

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

40 minutes ago, Daydream said:

BMS video tomorrow since it's  days before the album.

 

 

 

32 minutes ago, ShouldersSideways said:

If the album comes without any visual whatsoever how long before we freak out?

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

I honestly don’t know how the album will do opening week. We have no idea what the pre order numbers are (if they haven’t mentioned them they could be low or average). We don’t know if there will be any additional promo this week to build more hype for the album and single. I just want her to have her 7th consecutive number one and hopefully a number 1 single. 

We have no idea what Bey is capable of selling in this climate. That's her main metric of consumption as streaming grows.

 

She should be able to do 100k in pure sales and 150 million on demand at the minimum. And this is conservative after considering she's passed billion on demand streams in the US in 2022. She should be able match recent first weeks similar Future, Kendrick and Cole imho.

 

I just want longevity. She should not be sitting outside of the top 10 for a while. I hope she pushes this album. 

10 minutes ago, Planet Mars said:

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

 

As for sales, I'm gonna go with: 250k-350k.

 

Hopeful for more (or at the very least, the higher end of that range), but want to be conservative with estimate.  

 

I'm confident with traditional units given Bey's older audience and expect her sales pie to be mostly made up of traditional units. Much like Adele (600k of her 800k first week were pure units).

 

Streaming is the wild card.

 

The sheer number of tracks, in theory, should work to her benefit. But, at the same time, that typically works well streaming-wise when the songs are short.  Essentially loads of tracks that are quick to run through (and in turn run up the #s). Think what Chris Brown does with an 20+ track album of 2 minute songs. 

 

With Bey, her song-lengths are very meaty. A great thing for us, but makes me wonder if casual listeners will stick around listen all the way through. 

 

That said, all it takes is 30 seconds to count as a play on Spotify. So she'll be good I think. Even if the girls skim through.

 

In a way, her streaming performance will boil down to a) how much "world stop" buzz she can create around the arrival of the album and b) how savvy/all-out they go with on-platform marketing. Apparently Drake releases get the "ST iTunes treatment" on streaming e.g all the banners on Apple Music for Certified Lover Boy. I want that for Bey. Spotify also allow for sponsored playlists. Assuming it's allowed, imagine if Netflix sponsored Today's Top Hits playlist with links to the visual album. Circular promo. They've definitely sponsored it before for Stranger Things, I've seen it.

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hughmcintyre/2016/05/31/spotify-now-allows-brands-to-sponsor-targeted-playlists/?sh=78e298b35779

 

250k is lowest I'll "accept" and 350k would be great for where she is in her career and the general drop of sales industry wide. More would be the cherry on top.

 

Chart Hive in me is down for some kind of stunt. Imagine her announcing the tour early in release week and makes pre-sale access a matter of buying the album? A lot of acts do that and being the touring force she is, she stands to benefit the most.

Edited July 24, 20224 yr by Cbreezy

 

Anyway, I know the industry has changed, but Lemonade did what it did with no physicals, no pre-orders, no pre-saves, TIDAL only. I think you guys are lowballing her

11 minutes ago, ShouldersSideways said:

 

Anyway, I know the industry has changed, but Lemonade did what it did with no physicals, no pre-orders, no pre-saves, TIDAL only. I think you guys are lowballing her

It had the movie, we are unsure if she giving visuals on Friday or not

The closest I'll compare this to Happier Than Ever so the breakdown of it is;

153k pure (73k vinyls, 46k CDs, 10k cassette, 24k digital)
84k streams (113M on-demand streams) 

=  238k total units 

From what I can remember, Billie did pretty meh (for her standards) on Spotify and AM (5 songs in top 10 on Spotify but none of them reached top 3 and with AM, I think she only had like 3 in the top 10 but none reached top 2). HTE's first day US Spotify numbers was 12.4M and its overall streams for the tracking week were 60M. 16 tracks just like Renaissance. But keep in mind; Billie had already released 5 singles prior (My Future, Therefore I Am, Your Power, Lost Cause, NDA) that overall didn't do well before the GP decided they liked HTE the best

 

12,474,996-Day 1

22,153,544- Day 2

30,116,864- Day 3

38,836,002- Day 4

46,780,071 - Day 5

54,064,588 - Day 6

60,107,314- Day 7

 

I still can’t believe it only took her 2 weeks to record B’Day  I knew she would be a legend after serving us The Beyoncé Experience, she truly set the bar for a performer for me then