Do you see it happening?

400.000 ? This is big

Kinda hard to believe (this being almost double her last debut) but as long as she sells more than Olivia, I have to stan. Go Ari

Let me buy a copy

Is this better than Confessions II projections?

I am skeptical but would love for it to be true!

* according to gambling odds

how is this thread worthy. who gives a **** what some gambling site projects.

Is this better than Confessions II projections?

No

I don't see how that's possible when she couldn't even do that during her peak. He's probably jinxing it

Ariana, get that top female debut of the year, queen

On par with Olivia's initial predictions with a less passionate buying fanbase and likely a lesser streaming debut, I doubt it

Edited June 24Jun 24 by Billionaire

Just now, Billionaire said:

On par with Olivia's initial predictions with a less passionate fanbase and likely a lesser streaming debut, I doubt it

Even 300K would be a major win for Ariana.

I won't hold my breath she's not generally someone that does super huge first week numbers if I recall correctly, her strength is more in sustained streaming power over time

this is a set up i fear. 300k+ is possible tho

"Per Kalshi markets"

Ari has never cracked 200k pure with a debut before (iirc). I don't believe it, something drastic would've had to have changed for this to be possible IMO if eternal sunshine & positions are the precedent.

That would be wild.

When it actually ends up being 1M

I think she'll easily pass 300k+ I don't know about 400k.

Well, this isn't really according to TOTC. It's according to Kalshi and TOTC has posted about it. 400k+, while that would be incredible, is out of the realm, tbh. You never know, of course. But from the state of it, it is too high of a projection. Idk what the preorder numbers are. 400k would require a combination of very high streaming numbers and pure sales, or at least one of the two. And I think it falls on streaming more.

For now, I'm expecting it will do higher than ES (and Sweetener, coming for her second biggest first week). Spotify anywhere between 60–70M. 250K and anything above it is great.

This whole TOTC x Kalshi thing seems like just manipulation to benefit themselves.

Edited June 24Jun 24 by laqqinq

I don't see it happening but anything over 200k is a win tbh.

the set up, this is not happening

the goal is to outdo ES and Sweetener, and being ambitious it would be crossing the 300k mark, I see 100-120k pure and around 140k from SEA+TEA, a win tbh

The setup pls

her fans are saying it has 50k pre-orders