Another year, another publication predicting based on hopedictions and vibes than actual voting patterns Lux absolutely deserves AOTY but it's fighting for a nomination at this point, let alone a win I think The Cure has a better shot in SOTY and ROTY than others are giving it credit for since it can accrue more rock and alternative votes than Olivia's previous song submissions, but I think it's an outside choice rather than frontrunner I'm a fan of Ella so this is no shade, but I think people are overestimating Texas a bit in the song categories. Country has historically not done well in ROTY and SOTY (only two to three wins ever apiece, to my knowledge, one of which was the Chicks' historic sweep with a unique narrative.) It takes a lot of crossover appeal to voting blocs that might be hostile towards country to win, and also heavy vote-splitting between pop-leaning nominees (like when Lady A won for Need You Now.) Since Texas is a pretty straightforward country song, I think that Olivia Dean is more likely to overcome votesplitting here with jazz and traditional pop voters than Ella is For right now, an Olivia Dean sweep is what makes the most sense logically, but it's hard to predict when we don't know the nominees and how the votes will split. I'm pretty certain she's winning at least one, but we'll have to see how much support people like Bruno, Taylor, and Olivia R get in nominations to have a better idea