Debuting at #1 used to be a rarity, an accolade that was huge and quite unachievable unless you had high demand. And this was the case even in the early years of the streaming era (2013-2019)

But then we entered 2020, and everyone went into lockdown, and all of a sudden, it seemed as though every #1 song began its chart life at the top. The month of May 2020 started a chain reaction that we will probably feel forever. Between May 9 2020 and June 6 2020, the Hot 100 saw FIVE new number one singles back to back - The Scotts, Say So, Stuck Wit U, Savage and Rain On Me. At the time, this was unusual, but now it can be seen as a glimpse of what has become the new normal. In the year 2026, if you have a big enough name and a strong fanbase, with some versions, there's a 90% chance that your single will debut at #1; whether that song sticks around depends on pure luck and hope.

But why do you guys think there was such a sudden shift in the rise of #1 debuts from 2020, especially? It was not this severe even in 2019, what happened?

Hits are measured by how much streams you have, not peak positions

There are countless of huge hit songs that charted on lower half or in some cases didn't chart at all, but have big numbers and people know them at festivals

The same reason why vinyl sales shoot up.

" Marketing"

It was specifically easy in 2020 because digital and physical single sales were a lot healthier than right now, radio was weakened due to quarantine and it losing its main demographic (working people listening to the radio while commuting to work) and streaming was also slightly weaker. It was pretty easy to debut at #1 with pure sales alone.

Right now, pure sales are in the absolute pits right now, so nobody (except Taylor) has the means to debut very easily at #1, without the song actually being a bonafide streaming smash out of the gate.

IMO, it's because modern hits are just less ubiquitos and universal, and therefore it's easier for new songs to "dethrone" the current hits.

It doesn't require many points to get a number one song these days, most of the year, and streams drastically boost the « sales » of a song.

As long as you're a streaming artist it's almost hard to miss a top 3 debut at worst these days, which is why they are so meaningless and so many of them feel unknown.

Edited yesterday at 01:42 PM1 day by Erreur2 La Nature

Because the gp is not involved anymore. Charts have turned into a battle of fanbases and niches.

The counting methodology is wrong and overinflates streaming +bots +farms and algorithm it makes it easier and fake

Edited yesterday at 01:47 PM1 day by LittleStarmen

Taylor and fraud

Radio no longer holds power.

Weak competition

The #1 debuts have become like one of those fan voted awards

It doesn't mean much anymore

same reason there's songs getting Diamond certs every other month now, the streaming era made things very different and seem infinitely less impressive than what they used to tbh

billboard lost all credibility when that nicki and 69 collab went no1 a few years ago, which is currently getting 30k daily streams.

Edited 23 hours ago23 hr by Mocha

You speak the truth...obviously Covid started it.

Here is the count of Billboard Hot 100 songs that debuted at #1 (on their first week on the chart), by calendar year of the chart debut date, from 2010 through 2026 (as of the chart dated October 10, 2026):

• 2010: 2

• 2011: 2

• 2012: 1

• 2013: 1

• 2014: 1

• 2015: 2

• 2016: 2

• 2017: 2

• 2018: 4

• 2019: 3

• 2020: 12

• 2021: 11

• 2022: 6

• 2023: 9

• 2024: 9

• 2025: 4

• 2026: 8 (through October 10, 2026)

  billboard.com

Notes:

• 2020 holds the record for the most in a calendar year (12).