Bad Bunny won't have to deal with vote-splitting but Grammy voters have been prejudiced against non-English music in past in the GF.
 

Kendrick has two more rap albums to vote split with than anticipated (and Chromakopia looks like strong competition especially) but he has a successful album + strong narrative.
 

Gaga has MBF to vote-split with (which was predicted and I don't think Swag is too much of a threat tbh) but she also has a successful album + strong narrative. 
 

That's the state of the AOTY race right now. 

The fact LG6.5 Harlequin got nominated (love that for her ) but  LG4 ARTPOP is her only album not getting any Grammy love. 

9 minutes ago, Before the Dawn said:

No Andrew in Songwriter of the Year either...

That's only for non-producing and non-performing people, unless he had written songs for others without having contributed to production, he wasn't eligible 

Disease getting a nom shows some love from the pop voters. 

T O T A L L Y  D E S E R V E D 

 

Abracadabra missing both VMAs Video of the Year and Grammy for Best Music Video?

i wanted Killah as a grammy nominated song too 

tbh the fact Mayhem is only gonna split a fraction of it's votes with Sabrina since they are the only two females nominated with pop albums is actually a good sign seeing as Man's Bestie was actually underwhelming overall and Mayhem is considered a return to form for Gaga and truly a rebirth among critics....there's also the narrative around Gaga being a veteran in the industry now still pushing the boundaries. + Tyler, Bad Bunny and Kendrick will likely split some votes among them. GNX is STILL her biggest threat but I actually REALLY think she has a shot at winning big. 

 

That said, if she wins Pop album earlier in the night it means they aint giving her album of the year which would be a true crime and I could see them doing that as Pop Album is often seen as a reconciliatory award for those that should have won album of the year.....

Edited November 7, 2025Nov 7 by IBeMe

21 minutes ago, GipJo said:

Not him making mends with Grammys this year only for him to getting snubbed again next year

Human Fly ha power!

It was a humiliation ritual  

Abracadabra was the wrong video to submit. After you get over the return to form narrative, it's just a choreography video in a warehouse.

 

Disease MV on the other hand, is an art house masterpiece and should have been submitted. I guess they thought the commercial success voters would support Abra, though. 

14 minutes ago, Aston Martin said:

3 rap albums getting into AOTY is good for us (vote-splitting). Of course Mayhem has to contend with this too (Swag and MBF) but they were largely already predicted whereas Chromakopia and LGSEO were not. Of course Gaga and Kendrick have the strongest narratives and Bad Bunny is also a strong contender as predicted. We shall see. 
 

Another interesting tidbit is that some of the larger voting blocs (rock, country, ect.) don't have an album in AOTY. So it'll be interesting to see where there votes are allocated. Even though she didn't get any noms in rock this year, I feel like a decent bit of those voters may lean Gaga. MBF is the most country-adjacent album though so that may also be something worth considering. 

The country conservative voters will be interesting because neither Carpenter nor Gaga are the conservative blonde female singer trope they love.

If only Gaga had time to do some campaigning ugh. Really wish she'd do that Xmas Bowl. 

Gaga better start campaigning HARD this time. 

I better she a Netflix documentary and a Tiny Desk concert next month. 

She needs to attend and perform at the Billboard Music Awards. 

Also can't wait for the Netflix Christmas Halftime Show. 

She needs to do everything and MORE this time. 

She has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win big at the Grammys. 

She deserves it but needs to fight for it 

1 minute ago, DarkGa said:

Abracadabra was the wrong video to submit. After you get over the return to form narrative, it's just a choreography video in a warehouse.

 

Disease MV on the other hand, is an art house masterpiece and should have been submitted. I guess they thought the commercial success voters would support Abra, though. 

Again, it's not voted. If it's voted do you seriously think they would nominate I Got A Kick Out of You back then??

7 minutes ago, Aston Martin said:

Bad Bunny won't have to deal with vote-splitting but Grammy voters have been prejudiced against non-English music in past in the GF.
 

Kendrick has two more rap albums to vote split with than anticipated (and Chromakopia looks like strong competition especially) but he has a successful album + strong narrative.
 

Gaga has MBF to vote-split with (which was predicted and I don't think Swag is too much of a threat tbh) but she also has a successful album + strong narrative. 
 

That's the state of the AOTY race right now. 

When Swag wins AOTY 

4 minutes ago, Universo said:

i wanted Killah as a grammy nominated song too 

They were dumb not to submit it ugh

I'm prepared to k-word myself if Abra doesn't win in her categories

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, opbranden said:

I'm not an expert with the Grammys, do we have a pattern in the noms that could tell us if the academy liked MAYHEM enough to give it some love in the general fields? 

- Disease getting in Pop Solo shows that she has huge support from the pop field

- Cirkut getting in Producer of the Year is a good sign 

- Abra getting both GF noms is a good sign

- Abra getting snubbed in MV doesn't matter, it has a committee 

- Mayhem missing Engineered Album would've been a bad sign but none of the other nominees got in either so it evens out

- PC missing its rock categories was expected, doesn't mean much

 

On the other hand:

 

- No Mayhem writers in Songwriter of the Year

- Sabrina could split the Pop support with her in AOTY

- Chappell and Billie are also in SOTY/ROTY

 

Overall I think she is in a good position, but I'm not confident it will be enough to overcome Kendrick and Bad Bunny in AOTY at least.

I bet she's over the moon right now. 

I'm so proud of mother. 

I always believed in you, Disease. 

Get in and celebrate before it gets merged or locked

 

 

5 minutes ago, ctlp27 said:

The country conservative voters will be interesting because neither Carpenter nor Gaga are the conservative blonde female singer trope they love.

Joe Germanotta is campaigning for her on Fox News 24/7

 

4 minutes ago, ctlp27 said:

The country conservative voters will be interesting because neither Carpenter nor Gaga are the conservative blonde female singer trope they love.

True. I really can't predict who'd they for in AOTY. Maybe Gaga's team needs to start airing reruns of MR performances and the SBHT show to sway them

tbf Gaga got in everywhere she needed, mv snub doesn't count since f** juried

 

-Pop Solo was the iffiest since its usually the biggest hits minus Aunt, voters actually searched her name

 

-w Harlequin, her collabs with Tony shows she's earned enough goodwill with the bloc to be nom for her own solo work despite being attached to a panned film 

2 minutes ago, Before the Dawn said:

- Disease getting in Pop Solo shows that she has huge support from the pop field

- Cirkut getting in Producer of the Year is a good sign 

- Abra getting both GF noms is a good sign

- Abra getting snubbed in MV doesn't matter, it has a committee 

- Mayhem missing Engineered Album would've been a bad sign but none of the other nominees got in either so it evens out

- PC missing its rock categories was expected, doesn't mean much

 

On the other hand:

 

- No Mayhem writers in Songwriter of the Year

- Sabrina could split the Pop support with her in AOTY

- Chappell and Billie are also in SOTY/ROTY

 

Overall I think she is in a good position, but I'm not confident it will be enough to overcome Kendrick and Bad Bunny in AOTY at least.

Thank you so much!!!