after Renaissance she should have more vinyls in Europe. 

act ii: First Week Predictions

 

232K - satellites™

250K - Matangi

275K - sillycilla

300K - Armani?, Cbreezy, Jai, futuresuperstar2023

305K - PrettyHurts

315K - QueenB

320K - Starshine

330K - Lovett

335K - trainsskyscrapers

345K - Burn, luxurious, suneclipse121

350K - Massive_Teardrop, Beyle Street, ReneighIsHere

365K - Hallad173, Jon Snow, Aristotle

366K - kimberly

370K - Erotica

375K - Lose My Breath, YellowRibbon

385K - cuteboyzay

388K - benyonce

397K - Slamless

400K - Devin, QueenDiva, Havoc, SoundsandSongs, Punch, Mr. Specialist, Bey’Knight

401K - Redporus

404K - ShouldersSideways

410K - ToraeGilt

412K - Kristie Kuwa 

415K - Kalmanta

420K - SashaDevachelli

440K - V$

444K - Crayzik

450K - MrPiggyMoka, gisellecarter4, Space&Time

475K - cloudbusting

515K - Blue Rose

540K - PrudenceHCharmed

550K - Chris

 

1 minute ago, Devin said:

after Renaissance she should have more vinyls in Europe. 

She definitely does, and they're almost sold out (mainland).  I'm not sure about the UK though

33 minutes ago, luxurious said:

I’m hoping for a 50m+ debut on global Spotify but what I really want is stronger stability similar to SOS or eternal sunshine (so far). the fact that it’s coming out on Easter weekend basically destroys that hope though lol

 

I need her team to not drop the ball when it comes to promoting the right post album single in a timely manner (remember summer renaissance getting the playlisting alien superstar deserved) 

THIS!

 

That was so frustrating. It seemed like they wanted more of the album showcased, so “worked” a number of focus tracks on release (but mainly Summer Ren). But IMO, putting  all of the weight behind like an Alien would have been equally if not way more impactful. Like, sis, read the room and get your hits  when they’re calling for it. 
 

A good external example is Ariana Grande. I don’t even care for her newest single, but it’s objectively the most commercial on the album outside of her lead. It got mega playlisting along with the album release and is now largely carrying the whole project’s streams. 
 

I’m fairly certain there will be bops on the album (there always are). So I hope they work the right ones out of the gate as it will help everything from

jump. 
 

May the force be with them (and us because these eras are a rollercoaster, often for no needed reason lol)

I think some of yall overrate the Easter holidays - this is not a christmas situation. There are no easter-smashas a la AIWFCIY and its also not a season where radio drops anything that is easter-related

 

We'd obviously need data from 1-3 years ago to see if music consumption was indeed lower during those days, but I honestly highly doubt it

Edited March 16, 20242 yr by Kristie Kuwa

1 hour ago, Cbreezy said:

Thank you for this because it contextualizes a lot. 

 

I'm seeing a lot of feelings-based predictions, but this is data and data is hard to counter.

 

There's been a few "she's gonna do at least 400k because she's Beyonce"..."she's an album artist"..."she has a #1 smash single"...etc.

 

That all DOES factor in, but I'm not sure if it's to the extent y'all think it will. 

 

With Ren, she had the hype of it being her first solo album in 6 years and she maximized the preorder window, getting buzz buys before we even heard BMS.

 

With CC, we're less than two years removed from her last album, she has a #1 smash but one that is not her usual sound (and is more GP-driven which is never a guarantee for albums sales), and has a much smaller preorder window. 

 

To her benefit, of course, is that she has a bigger streaming presence and curiosity listens (which I think will benefit her streams more than pure sales).

 

So, while big sales aren't out of the question, I don't think it's as much of a given as some of y'all seem to be anticipating. 

 

FYI, I WANT her to do the big numbers some of y'all are throwing out. I'm just...cautious.

 

I'll have way less doubt if she goes all out with more variants, bonus tracks ala Taylor, retail store exclusives (Amazon, Target etc). Like, in her own way, she has to... work for it. 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Seeing the big predictions and the reasons why now makes all the pushback on the preorder debate make a bit more sense to me lol. 

A lot of y'all expect big sales "because" she's Beyonce and "always" sells a certain amount.

 

I guess my issue with that is that she has typically had to do all the things necessary to make that happen (outside of ST and Lemonade, which themselves had their own unique hype drivers with the surprise release and visual elements). Beyond that yesteryear Bey did all that promo and Ren Bey played the preorder/variants game well and arguably better than what we're seeing now. 

 

 

 

Thank you, finally someone with some common sense in here.

 

The Hive members predicting 400-500k numbers are in for a very rude awakening.

And this has nothing to do with downplaying the Queen or anything, I really couldn't care less about any numbers and I am always just here for the music.

But lets also not forget how the economic situation in early/mid 2022 was much better than now, 2 years later people are even struggling more....all factors that need to be included.

12 minutes ago, Devin said:

act ii: First Week Predictions

 

232K - satellites™

275K - sillycilla

300K - Armani?, Cbreezy, Jai, futuresuperstar2023

305K - PrettyHurts

315K - QueenB

320K - Starshine

330K - Lovett

335K - trainsskyscrapers

345K - Burn, luxurious, suneclipse121

350K - Massive_Teardrop, Beyle Street, ReneighIsHere

365K - Hallad173, Jon Snow, Aristotle

366K - kimberly

370K - Erotica

375K - Lose My Breath, YellowRibbon

385K - cuteboyzay

388K - benyonce

397K - Slamless

400K - Devin, QueenDiva, Havoc, SoundsandSongs, Punch, Mr. Specialist, Bey’Knight

401K - Redporus

404K - ShouldersSideways

410K - ToraeGilt

412K - Kristie Kuwa 

415K - Kalmanta

420K - SashaDevachelli

440K - V$

444K - Crayzik

450K - MrPiggyMoka, gisellecarter4, Space&Time

475K - cloudbusting

515K - Blue Rose

540K - PrudenceHCharmed

550K - Chris

 

add 250k - MATANGI

 

9 minutes ago, Lose My Breath said:

She definitely does, and they're almost sold out (mainland).  I'm not sure about the UK though

UK

White - 1524
Blue - 1056
Red - 1143
Black - 6777

26 minutes ago, Kingdom said:

so what exactly is your prediction?

I already shared it earlier. I'm saying 300k.

 

I think a little under that and a little over that are also plausible and still set her up for a Ren sales trajectory. 

 

I want way more and will gladly eat all the humble pie if she smashes way harder.

Just now, benyonce said:

UK

White - 1524
Blue - 1056
Red - 1143
Black - 6777

Thanks!  I'm so curious what she started with, any idea?   I wish we had the start for mainland, too.

 

1 minute ago, Lose My Breath said:

Thanks!  I'm so curious what she started with, any idea?   I wish we had the start for mainland, too.

 

No idea but I wish I didn't bother to learn how to check. Now I feel like I need to nab a red copy before it sells out. 

11 minutes ago, Kristie Kuwa said:

I think some of yall overrate the Easter holidays - this is not a christmas situation. There are no easter-smashas a la AIWFCIY and its also not a season where radio drops anything that is easter-related

 

We'd obviously need data from 1-3 years ago to see if music consumption was indeed lower during those days, but I honestly highly doubt it

Just checked: music comsumption is indeed by 5-10% lower on Easter Friday and Saturday than on comparative weekends. We are ******.

 

let me change my prediction to 302k instead of 412k 

Edited March 16, 20242 yr by Kristie Kuwa

3 minutes ago, benyonce said:

No idea but I wish I didn't bother to learn how to check. Now I feel like I need to nab a red copy before it sells out. 

I snatched the red yesterday here in the US.  I did the red shirt box, white and red vinyl, debating on the blue.....

 

 

Just now, Kristie Kuwa said:

Just checked: music comsumption is indeed by 5-10% lower on Easter Friday and Saturday than on comparative weekends. We are ******

I assumed as much lol....  It'll just make her rebound even better on Monday

 

 

1 hour ago, Cbreezy said:

Thank you for this because it contextualizes a lot. 

 

I'm seeing a lot of feelings-based predictions, but this is data and data is hard to counter.

 

There's been a few "she's gonna do at least 400k because she's Beyonce"..."she's an album artist"..."she has a #1 smash single"...etc.

 

That all DOES factor in, but I'm not sure if it's to the extent y'all think it will. 

 

With Ren, she had the hype of it being her first solo album in 6 years and she maximized the preorder window, getting buzz buys before we even heard BMS.

 

With CC, we're less than two years removed from her last album, she has a #1 smash but one that is not her usual sound (and is more GP-driven which is never a guarantee for albums sales), and has a much smaller preorder window. 

 

To her benefit, of course, is that she has a bigger streaming presence and curiosity listens (which I think will benefit her streams more than pure sales).

 

So, while big sales aren't out of the question, I don't think it's as much of a given as some of y'all seem to be anticipating. 

 

FYI, I WANT her to do the big numbers some of y'all are throwing out. I'm just...cautious.

 

I'll have way less doubt if she goes all out with more variants, bonus tracks ala Taylor, retail store exclusives (Amazon, Target etc). Like, in her own way, she has to... work for it. 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Seeing the big predictions and the reasons why now makes all the pushback on the preorder debate make a bit more sense to me lol. 

A lot of y'all expect big sales "because" she's Beyonce and "always" sells a certain amount.

 

I guess my issue with that is that she has typically had to do all the things necessary to make that happen (outside of ST and Lemonade, which themselves had their own unique hype drivers with the surprise release and visual elements). Beyond that yesteryear Bey did all that promo and Ren Bey played the preorder/variants game well and arguably better than what we're seeing now. 

 

 

 

Exactly! The most logical conclusion. 

2 minutes ago, Lose My Breath said:

I assumed as much lol....  It'll just make her rebound even better on Monday

 

 

I see CC having more potential for longevity and that's all that matters in the end. Country music in general seems to have more longevity on the charts than lgbt-centric house music and she's going into it with a recognisable global smash viral on tiktok this time.

1 hour ago, luxurious said:

I’m hoping for a 50m+ debut on global Spotify but what I really want is stronger stability similar to SOS or eternal sunshine (so far). the fact that it’s coming out on Easter weekend basically destroys that hope though lol

 

I need her team to not drop the ball when it comes to promoting the right post album single in a timely manner (remember summer renaissance getting the playlisting alien superstar deserved) 

Yes I agree, longevity is way more  important but tbh that's exactly where I expect them to drop the ball. Never has a clearance for a huge second hit been as obvious as AS and they managed to kill it. Longevity and great holds come with a good single post album : Sour, Eternal Sunshine, SOS are good proof of this.

 

I find the predictions a bit high for now. I thought the reason for the hold up on pre-orders was something big. I will wait to see if that something big is coming or she has a plan before placing mine, for now I am not that confident it can get above Ren tbh. 

Rennie

 

121k CD 
43k Digital
26k Vinyl
142k Streaming
-332k debut

 

I kinda see Cowboy Carter doing

 

70-90k CD (2 box sets, but maybe people find 2 sets more appealing than buying all 4 Renaissance sets)
50k Digital (this era is doing well digitally)
50-60k Vinyl (more variants)
150-160k Streaming
-320k to 360k range 

 

16 minutes ago, Matangi said:

Thank you, finally someone with some common sense in here.

 

The Hive members predicting 400-500k numbers are in for a very rude awakening.

And this has nothing to do with downplaying the Queen or anything, I really couldn't care less about any numbers and I am always just here for the music.

But let’s also not forget how the economic situation in early/mid 2022 was much better than now, 2 years later people are even struggling more....all factors that need to be included.

Those of us with more safe predictions have factored a lot. 

 

14 minutes ago, Cbreezy said:

I already shared it earlier. I'm saying 300k.

 

I think a little under that and a little over that are also plausible and still set her up for a Ren sales trajectory. 

 

I want way more and will gladly eat all the humble pie if she smashes way harder.

I’m sticking with my 275k-300k. I’m not seeing any higher without a push.

THE needs a visual or performance. That’s just the truth. And the album sale/longevity will absolutely depend on the caliber of the second single. Whoever made that observation was spot on. We all know they don’t have the best track record at choosing singles and playlist placements.

beyonce is not doing less than 300k and some of you need to know that....LMAO

I honestly think she’s gonna have more success globally this era than in the U.S. 

 

Europe seems to be absolutely loving this new sound from her, and I think the REN tour did something for her celebrity status there (she’s always been a global A lister). Which, hey I’m here for! 

8 minutes ago, Bears01 said:

I honestly think she’s gonna have more success globally this era than in the U.S. 

 

Europe seems to be absolutely loving this new sound from her, and I think the REN tour did something for her celebrity status there (she’s always been a global A lister). Which, hey I’m here for! 

The tour felt huge there when I was travelling around, far bigger than it did for the FWT. I think there would be more demand for an Act II tour there than there would be another in the US right now.


Can someone from the US please update the stock numbers? 

the discourse in here.

16 minutes ago, Bears01 said:

I honestly think she’s gonna have more success globally this era than in the U.S. 

 

Europe seems to be absolutely loving this new sound from her, and I think the REN tour did something for her celebrity status there (she’s always been a global A lister). Which, hey I’m here for! 

I mean not really surprising, House/EDM/Dance has always been way bigger in Europe than in the US. To this day, we have Renaissance themed gay parties here in Europe. Its definitely huge and has reignited a lot of love towards Bey