I have a question I have never asked myself before.

 

So, can we assume that the total Al actually is the Al of a certain song for an entire week?

How can you explain a song can go from 80M (CTTR for example) on the first week to like 200M two months later?

7 minutes ago, Squall said:

I have a question I have never asked myself before.

 

So, can we assume that the total Al actually is the Al of a certain song for an entire week?

How can you explain a song can go from 80M (CTTR for example) on the first week to like 200M two months later?

I think the overall AI is the AI a song got in past 7 days, if that makes sense?

Just now, Hurem said:

I think the overall AI is the AI a song got in past 7 days, if that makes sense?

Yeah but how can a song go from getting 80M airplay on the first week (which is already HUGE) to like 200M weeks later? It's so hard to understand how it's possible  

4 minutes ago, Squall said:

Yeah but how can a song go from getting 80M airplay on the first week (which is already HUGE) to like 200M weeks later? It's so hard to understand how it's possible  

that 80M doesn't mean 80M unique people heard it, it just means that it had 80M listeners. So if you hear a song on the radio 30 times a week, you account for 30 of that 80M, at least in theory. AI numbers are mainly estimation.

Edited February 19, 20179 yr by bjnono001

Just now, Squall said:

Yeah but how can a song go from getting 80M airplay on the first week (which is already HUGE) to like 200M weeks later? It's so hard to understand how it's possible  

wait...

 

26 minutes ago, bjnono001 said:

that 80M doesn't mean 80M unique people heard it, it just means that it had 80M listeners. So if you hear a song on the radio 30 times a week, you account for 30 of that 80M, at least in theory. AI numbers are mainly estimation.

That still makes no sense to me, why does it keep being bigger each week, I don't know, this makes me confused

8 minutes ago, Squall said:

That still makes no sense to me, why does it keep being bigger each week, I don't know, this makes me confused

More stations pick it up, and stations already playing it play it more. Basically, just because you've already heard the song a previous week, you can hear it again the current week and be counted as part of the audience number for last week and this week.

5 minutes ago, bjnono001 said:

More stations pick it up, and stations already playing it play it more. Basically, just because you've already heard the song a previous week, you can hear it again the current week and be counted as part of the audience number for last week and this week.

But still, why are there no exceptions in which you have something like:

 

Week 1: 80M

Week 2: 110M

Week 3: 105M

Week 4: 120M

 

etc.

 

That would make sense since the calculation is based on 7 days.

47 minutes ago, Squall said:

But still, why are there no exceptions in which you have something like:

 

Week 1: 80M

Week 2: 110M

Week 3: 105M

Week 4: 120M

 

etc.

 

That would make sense since the calculation is based on 7 days.

Because radio grows in a fairly predictable way.

 

The numbers we're dealing in (tens/hundreds of millions of impressions) are so large that it always averages into a steady rise, peak, and then steady fall. Basically it wouldn't make sense to go 110 --> 105 --> 120 unless there was an extremely rare reason for it to fall in that middle week.

2 hours ago, YR. said:

Do you see this **** right here @umich ?

Only this time radio won't be able to hide the fact that the song is a bomb

 interscope is not playing.

6 minutes ago, Fruity said:

Because radio grows in a fairly predictable way.

 

The numbers we're dealing in (tens/hundreds of millions of impressions) are so large that it always averages into a steady rise, peak, and then steady fall. Basically it wouldn't make sense to go 110 --> 105 --> 120 unless there was an extremely rare reason for it to fall in that middle week.

I just struggle to understand how songs are able to keep on growing every week. I mean, if we consider a 1-day radio deal brought 28M al to CTTR, if we multiply that number by 7, it gives 196 million. So, it means that songs at their peaks are stronger (or just as much) than a huge radio deal on 7 days.  

3 hours ago, Mr. Adele said:

Super Bowl, SNL, AMAs, Victoria Secrets Fashion Show, X Factor UK, Alan Carr, Carpool Karaoke... How many songs had all of those? Specially the first 2.

100 million radio audience every week is much bigger promotion than any of that but maybe the Super Bowl. And that's just the one time.

Edited February 19, 20179 yr by goethe

15 hours ago, Marioland said:

So songs that get promoted cannot be slow burners on radio? We'll see I guess today's update and the others in future!

A lot of the promo that Million Reasons got was before it was even a single sooooo what are people complaining about?

Million Reasons is obviously promo and discount fueled hit. But still a hit and she and her team did a very good job making it a hit  because it looked hopeless after the first bunch of promo didn't help much

11 hours ago, Squall said:

I just struggle to understand how songs are able to keep on growing every week. I mean, if we consider a 1-day radio deal brought 28M al to CTTR, if we multiply that number by 7, it gives 196 million. So, it means that songs at their peaks are stronger (or just as much) than a huge radio deal on 7 days.  

Every radio station has a playlist. When a new song comes out they spin it a few times outside of that to test if listeners like it, but slowly. If the reaction seems positive the songs gets put into more of a consistant rotation, but then it takes a couple more weeks to get put into power rotation which are the ~5 songs that that station knows nearly everybody wants to hear right now.

That process if different in speed from station to station, but still the same process. 

And if you get dropped by a couple of stations because the listener reaction doesnt seem positive or people are over that song you will very likely get dropped by the other stations soon too. 

 

13 hours ago, Squall said:

I just struggle to understand how songs are able to keep on growing every week. I mean, if we consider a 1-day radio deal brought 28M al to CTTR, if we multiply that number by 7, it gives 196 million. So, it means that songs at their peaks are stronger (or just as much) than a huge radio deal on 7 days.  

The main reason is because the US is an absolutely massive country with probably thousands of radio stations being included in the airplay figures.

 

In smaller countries you actually do see audience figures fluctuate from week to week. That's because in smaller countries there can be large stations which alone can have a noticeable influence on the audience figures for songs (for example in the UK with BBC Radio 2). In the UK if Radio 2 plays a song 10 times one week, then 4 times the next week, then 8 times the week after, it will cause a huge decline in the AI for the song, even when it's a "growing hit", then an increase the next week.

 

But in the US, that simply doesn't happen. To get week-to-week fluctuations in the US it would require dozens, or maybe hundreds of radio stations to all decide to play a song less than the previous week, in the SAME WEEK, and then the week after all to increase the airplay again. It's just not going to happen. It's too much of a coincidence for it to ever happen. And that's not even taking into account that most stations usually stay to their strict playlists anyway and aren't going to vary what music they play drastically from week to week.

 

Songs in the US are almost always going to have a gradual climb to peak AI then a gradual decline. That's why you'll hardly ever see the pattern from week 2 to week 4 like in your example. If you look at individual stations, or a small group of stations you would see fluctuations occasionally though.

 

And it wouldn't surprise me that songs at their peak are as big as songs with radio deals. Unfortunately. Radio overplays songs to ridiculous levels. :( They're just trying to make money I guess, but it's unfortunate.

Edited February 20, 20179 yr by Tsuko

2 hours ago, simmnfierzig said:

Every radio station has a playlist. When a new song comes out they spin it a few times outside of that to test if listeners like it, but slowly. If the reaction seems positive the songs gets put into more of a consistant rotation, but then it takes a couple more weeks to get put into power rotation which are the ~5 songs that that station knows nearly everybody wants to hear right now.

That process if different in speed from station to station, but still the same process. 

And if you get dropped by a couple of stations because the listener reaction doesnt seem positive or people are over that song you will very likely get dropped by the other stations soon too. 

 

1 hour ago, Tsuko said:

 

The main reason is because the US is an absolutely massive country with probably thousands of radio stations being included in the airplay figures.

 

In smaller countries you actually do see audience figures fluctuate from week to week. That's because in smaller countries there can be large stations which alone can have a noticeable influence on the audience figures for songs (for example in the UK with BBC Radio 2). In the UK if Radio 2 plays a song 10 times one week, then 4 times the next week, then 8 times the week after, it will cause a huge decline in the AI for the song, even when it's a "growing hit", then an increase the next week.

 

But in the US, that simply doesn't happen. To get week-to-week fluctuations in the US it would require dozens, or maybe hundreds of radio stations to all decide to play a song less than the previous week, in the SAME WEEK, and then the week after all to increase the airplay again. It's just not going to happen. It's too much of a coincidence for it to ever happen. And that's not even taking into account that most stations usually stay to their strict playlists anyway and aren't going to vary what music they play drastically from week to week.

 

Songs in the US are almost always going to have a gradual climb to peak AI then a gradual decline. That's why you'll hardly ever see the pattern from week 2 to week 4 like in your example. If you look at individual stations, or a small group of stations you would see fluctuations occasionally though.

 

And it wouldn't surprise me that songs at their peak are as big as songs with radio deals. Unfortunately. Radio overplays songs to ridiculous levels. :( They're just trying to make money I guess, but it's unfortunate.

Thank you, it definitely makes sense now.

 

Too bad we don't have numbers here in France, I would definitely see the difference.

I'm not trying to start a confrontation, but based on the gains it has every day last week, I really thought CTTR would've regained at least 10 million of its AI by now. After losing nearly 20 M with Saturday's roll, it's only regained a little over a million back each day. Admittedly a small part of that loss was falling out of the Rhythmic Top 50. But if it's reentered there (which I think it has), then that genre boost would account for one of those one million. CTTR was gaining 7-8 million a day, even after its initial promotion day. I'm not the biggest Katy Perry fan, but I had hoped the opening song from her first new album in over 3 years would do better than this. 

3 hours ago, Tsuko said:

 

And it wouldn't surprise me that songs at their peak are as big as songs with radio deals. Unfortunately. Radio overplays songs to ridiculous levels. :( They're just trying to make money I guess, but it's unfortunate.

Yeah, and this overplaying of certain songs significantly narrows and reduces a station's playlist. Back in 2000, when "Smooth" had the biggest week of the year at around 8,800 spins, Top 40 played a much wider variety of songs than they limit their listeners to today. 

Shining debuted on pop today!

 

50

--

DJ KHALED

Shining f/Beyonce & Jay Z

485

--

484

--

4.884

Edited February 20, 20179 yr by Lose My Breath

35 minutes ago, brianc33616 said:

I'm not trying to start a confrontation, but based on the gains it has every day last week, I really thought CTTR would've regained at least 10 million of its AI by now. After losing nearly 20 M with Saturday's roll, it's only regained a little over a million back each day. Admittedly a small part of that loss was falling out of the Rhythmic Top 50. But if it's reentered there (which I think it has), then that genre boost would account for one of those one million. CTTR was gaining 7-8 million a day, even after its initial promotion day. I'm not the biggest Katy Perry fan, but I had hoped the opening song from her first new album in over 3 years would do better than this. 

Um. What? The 7-8 million daily from last week are rolling out now. 

The updates are very good so far.

50 minutes ago, brianc33616 said:

I'm not trying to start a confrontation, but based on the gains it has every day last week, I really thought CTTR would've regained at least 10 million of its AI by now. After losing nearly 20 M with Saturday's roll, it's only regained a little over a million back each day. Admittedly a small part of that loss was falling out of the Rhythmic Top 50. But if it's reentered there (which I think it has), then that genre boost would account for one of those one million. CTTR was gaining 7-8 million a day, even after its initial promotion day. I'm not the biggest Katy Perry fan, but I had hoped the opening song from her first new album in over 3 years would do better than this. 

and you're a 30 year chart expert?

27 minutes ago, spree said:

and you're a 30 year chart expert?

Well I've followed BB since July 1984, and I remember the change to electronic tracking in late 1991, though we didn't have all of the component data until much more recently. This is why I don't understand why CTTR is only regaining 1-1.5 M/day, compared to other songs that have gone back to picking up 3-4+ M/day after rolling (Shape Of You, Hello, Shake It Off, and others I can't remember right off the top of my head).

Why did Republic lock the site? I loved checking the news there

 

http://republicplaybook.com/genre/top-40/

 

 

 

41 minutes ago, brianc33616 said:

Well I've followed BB since July 1984, and I remember the change to electronic tracking in late 1991, though we didn't have all of the component data until much more recently. This is why I don't understand why CTTR is only regaining 1-1.5 M/day, compared to other songs that have gone back to picking up 3-4+ M/day after rolling (Shape Of You, Hello, Shake It Off, and others I can't remember right off the top of my head).

Well SOY and those others did way better than CTTR on sales and streaming.

 

SOY 10th day

18 +1 ED SHEERAN Shape Of You  75.824 +3.737  11784  +814

 

CTTR 10th day

21 +1 KATY PERRY Chained To The Rhythm 66.590  +1.870   11377  +557

 

Radio will not be the problem