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jakeisphat

ATRL Member
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Everything posted by jakeisphat

  1. Wellโ€ฆ he's either talking about Harris or AOC cuz he definitely ain't referring to Big Gretch.
  2. That article did say that several of her former aides think she will not run, but I'm taking that with a grain of salt because all of them acknowledged that she has been secretive and not disclosed her plans with anyone. While Harris is often viewed as a bad politician, I believe that's really only when it comes to her reliance on advisors for policy. But when it comes to strategizing a good launch or marketing herself, I think she's actually more capable than people think. When she launched her campaign in 2020, she had more endorsements than any candidate going into the primary but was unable to differentiate herself from others on the policy front. And when she learned she was a finalist to be Biden's running mate, she spearheaded a media campaign to put out hit pieces on the other girls he was considering. Then for 2024, she did everything right when it came to selecting a running mate, using social media, and fundraising - but once again fell flat on policy because she listened to Biden's advisors purporting that shifting right was needed to win. I think privately, she is planning to run, but she's so overly cautious that I think she's waiting until the midterm results are in so that she can decide which type of campaign to run. If the progressives smash at the ballot box - I see her running a left campaign since that is what will be popular. If the progressives fail and moderates perform better, then I think she'll run another centrist campaign sans trying to court republican swing voters like 2024. Unlike the other candidates, she has so many connections from being veep that she can formulate a primary campaign much faster than someone that has only run for statewide office.
  3. I know it is speculated that Jon is just saying this so that he doesn't come off as power hungry for 2026, but I actually believe him. Realistically speaking, it's not easy for a candidate on the ballot in a swing-state November midterm campaign to then have a presidential primary campaign compiled and ready to go in 2027 when candidates begin launching (unless they plan on entering way late like Deval Patrick did in Nov. 2019). That was the exact reason Harris didn't run for governor because she knew it would require her to drop her 2028 hopes. I didn't realize it but he has said now 4 times on television since spring that he has zero interest in running for president in 2028. It would come off as disingenuous to claim so often that he is focused on the people of Georgia, only to be sworn in for a second senate term in January 2027 and then immediately launch a presidential campaign within 90 days so that he can qualify for the debates. He hasn't even been visiting primary states like the other people are. I think he wants to show that his election in 2021 wasn't just a pandemic fluke so that he can market himself as a Democrat that can win purple states in a post-2028 presidential election. As of right now there are 9 people that have been campaigning in or visiting 5 or more states outside of their home territory in 2026: AOC (12): AL, CA, FL, KS, LA, MI, MO, MT, OK, PA, TX, WV Beshear (5): IA, MI, NH, SC, TX Buttigieg (12): AZ, GA, IA, MT, NC, NE, NH, NV, OK, PA, SC, WI Emmanuel (5): MI, MS, NH, SC, WI Harris (16): AR, AZ, CO, GA, IN, LA, MI, MS, NC, NV, NY, OH, SC, TN, VA, WI Kelly (10): AK, GA, IA, KS, NC, NH, NV, NY, OH, SC Khanna (6): MI, MN, NV, OH, PA, SC Moore (6): GA, MA, MI, NV, NY, SC Newsom (12): AL, AZ, FL, GA, MA, MI, NC, NH, NV, NY, SC, TN Jon Ossoff and Josh Shapiro have not visited any states outside of their home states in 2026. If they are gearing up to launch 2028 campaigns in the next 6 months, they will be starting off with a major disadvantage compared to the others. Sure it can be done... but it's very rare for a serious contender to not pack their schedule with 10+ visits prior to their campaign launch. Obama visited 30 states in 2006, Clinton visited 25 states in 2014, and Biden visited 31 states in 2018.
  4. This album is so good. I'm so glad she was on my Spotify mix otherwise I would have never discovered her.
  5. He doesn't want the smoke because he knows Kamala plays dirty. She probably knows all of his dirt since they've been running in the same circles since the 90s. If he holds to this though... Harris 2028 is really not that far-fetched. Before Newsom had buzz, she was consistently polling above 30%, so I think he split a lot of her support. If he sits out, I can see most of his supporters turning back to her. Kind of hard to believe she's not running when she's going to spend the next month campaigning in the sunbelt where she knows most of the other candidates would struggle.
  6. Over the past 6 months economists have predicted a brewing recession due to: the Iran War, Trump's tariffs, inflation, and a bad labor market. Recessions occur every 6-10 years on average with the last one being just over 6 years ago... Do you foresee another by 2028? Why or why not?
  7. Not anymore. He was a breath of fresh air in the beginning and I do believe he is very talented. However, after his debut, he fell into the trap of using gimmicks to get people to pay attention to him. All of his videos were purposely meant to be controversial because he clearly thought that was the key to staying power. But it wasn't. Had he went into a new direction after his debut, he'd have shown off how versatile he could be instead of purposely trying to incite publicity. People quit taking him seriously because he came off as an attention-*****. When you have a mental health crisis and the GP can't tell if it's authentic or a publicity stunt - you know the GP is over it. I'm glad he's doing better though in spite of his personal struggles.
  8. I can't with these former AGs running like Paxton that refuse to debate. Like ***** y'all were the top prosecutors in your state and you're too afraid to make arguments in front of an audience? Embarrassing af.
  9. I know people who are really into social media and tech that want some huge ass phone but tbh, to me that **** looks ugly af. It reminds me of 2013 when my gay ass had an LG Lotus which was just wide and extra and annoying looking for no reason. If I saw someone using this duo monstrosity closed, I'd think it was a new kindle or something. Like... no *****.
  10. 333 - Tinashe Traumazine - Megan SOS - SZA It Was Good Until It Wasn't - Kehlani Renaissance - Bey Tunnel - Lana Public Displays of Affection - Muni Long ST - Tyla Short n' Sweet - Sabrina After Hours - The Weeknd
  11. My forever pop bible
  12. The post paired with that Ari pic is sending me
  13. Lil' Kim: Hard Core - 11 months Notorious K.I.M. - 4 La Bella Mafia - 7 The Naked Truth - 9 9 - 23 Tinashe: Aquarius - 18 Nightride - 20 Joyride - 22 Songs for You - 23 333 - 25 BB/Ang3l - 27 Quantum Baby - 28 Popstar - 30 Meg: Good News - 24 Something for Thee Hotties! - 25 Traumazine - 26 MEGAN - 28

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