theres a science to grammy votes even if they look rigged and crooked. last year they had an excellent political and cultural choice in bad bunny, which was rallied for the overall message a full spanish album winning AOTY would give but, looking at the votes strategically, pop voters (the majority) were split into MAYHEM and Man's Best Friend, which i'm sure were really close runner ups. This year there really is no album people are going to rally behind. Olivia Dean is the front runner yet pop voters will probably prioritize Rodrigo over her, and LUX will definitely take the older "intellectual" voters off Dean if Madonna can actually form a narrative around her (how has the queen of pop never won AOTY?) i really wouldn't count her out.