chessguy99

He ran a fairly effective campaign. He pointed out many of the terrible shortcomings and decisions of the Bass administration. He never had a chance, but the effort he put in helped to keep the electorate focused on how bad Bass has been and may contribute to Raman winning the runoff.

Both are regular Democrats and have won state legislature elections. Both relied on overwhelming support in their home areas. Not all progressives are DSA types, in fact most aren't.

The past month has been terrible for the Chicagoland area. We are at the top of the omega block high that has been frying Texas. This means storm systems skirt around the block. So, we've been getting hit every other week with high energy storms that have spawned a number of small tornados and some high(80 mph plus) wind events. Areas with older trees have been getting hit with extreme tree damage, which has caused these outages. Some areas need two or more days to just clear the debris so the electrical workers can get in to restring the lines.

M4A is going nowhere until it gets universal support from the labor unions. As it is, there is just to much opposition within organized labor.

The local nickname for where Penn State is located is Happy Valley. I guess we now know why.

This has nothing to do with economic policy, and more to do with American cattle production. Cattle production is an asset heavy business with very thin profit margins. The US has been in a megadrought since the start of the 2000, with this being one of the driest 25 years is US history. This has put substantial pressure on smaller operations; less productive grazing land, higher feed prices. Many people have just got out the cattle production business, thus we have US cattle production at a 75 year low. These plants are closing because there just isn't adequate numbers of cattle to process.

It's called covering all your bases. If he wins you don't look like a sore loser and he'll owe you for your next camapign. If he loses, you probably get a clean no real opposition primary in 2032.

I blame Cambridge. They wouldn't even entertain any questioning when it came to Arday. Sort of set him up for this.

Primary turnout is only an indication there were competitive races at the top of the ballot. Michigan's turnout was a record for midterms. Wisconsin's was the highest in for a midterm over 20 years. But, they both pale to the totals generated in presidential election years.

For those wondering about the kidnapping charges, he was charged by US DOJ not by Missouri. Kidnapping was the only federal charge that could be used for the unlawful restraint. The kidnapping charges when joined with the sexual abuse charges would have probably gotten him a life sentence if it went to trial. Federal life sentences have no provisions for parole.

Not so much the acts, but there were also allegations of him doing photos of men in public restrooms. He also had hundreds of photographs of DL/ID of men on his phone, including some high school IDs. Definitely a failure on the part of NCPC in the psychological testing during the hiring process.

Hong was the prefered opponent. The main issue she had with universal appeal was the AI center moratorium, Tiffany isn't pro-AI centers so the issue is a wash. Medicare for All is not a state issue, unless Hong was going to propose a state run universal healthcare solution. Crowley was also a highly effective leader in Milwaukee county, thus has a proven executive record to run on. I looked at the counties with historically high Republican primary vote numbers, ones where you'd expect an organize Republican cross vote to occur, and Hong won some of those. Enough that is was pretty much a non-factor. I think the main reason Hong lost was the inability of her campaign to negotiate a withdrawal by Roys. Roys is a Madison progressive who had previously campaigned statewide, third to Evers in the 2018 primary. I find it interesting that Roys didn't withdraw after the regular dems cleared out things for Crowley, which would have evened the playing field. With her out, Hong would have had a convincing win.

That's part of being a progressive. They are absolutists, their message is what it is, and they will not soften any aspect of it to sound less confrontational. That makes them easy targets. It's also why they have difficulty in races with a wide and diverse electorate. They don't even want to try and understand why their message isn't universally accepted.

Hong didn't lose due to lack of endorsements. She lost because her campaign was inept, they didn't try to negotiate Roys into suspending her campaign and endorsing Hong.

Main reason is a good number of labor unions still oppose it.

That's a very effective ad. It hits on two concerns of low to mid income families; housing and education. It's very effective in that it links the housing costs to a lack of people trained in the building trades. The last forty or so years the US education industry has built its profits on the college degree. Schools dumped programs intended to train students for the building trades in favor of STEM. People have found in these past few years that the college degree isn't all that they were initially sold. This type of ad will resonate with low to mid income voters who are more concerned with their children's' futures than what's going on in the middle east.

I was wondering why Hong wasn't plus double figures in Dane county. That's just poor organization, the regular Dems neatly trimmed the field for Crowley.

This is the exact reason Hong lost. The regular party mobilized and came through to defeat her.They narrowed the field. They sent out vote reminder calls , something not typically done in primaries. I would imagine they had substantial numbers of drivers out getting older people to the polling places. They treated this like a general election, not a primary.

Actually it's more that the regular party mobilized to beat her. The vote totals far surpass any Wisconsin Democratic primary, and look to be 50% more than the last contested Wisconsin Democratic governor primary back in 2018. So, it isn't that polls were off on Hong's support, but that they didn't see the turnout being so large.

Because the vast majority of people voting tomorrow are only doing so because they heard on the news today there was a primary election. You would be surprised in the lack of political awareness the general public has in the US. Many of the voters who are really interested, have most likely already early voted. As it is the total votes counted for this primary will probably be far less that half the registered voters in Wisconsin.

It's the exact same thing they did back in 1980, when they sunk the Carter re-election bid. They waited until the 20th and handed over the hostages to Reagan. And don't be so sure Trump will give in. He'd gut Iran before that happens. Can't sell oil if all your facilities are smoldering ruins.

Primary is way different then the general election. The total voters in both the primaries isn't even half of what was cast in the last Michigan mid-term general. He'll need a minimum of three times the votes he got in the primary to win.

Perhaps he knows he's cooked and wants to go out with a bag of money. The investor groups would be very grateful if he gets this through.

The company is a respected regional polling firm. They have always shown Peters beating El-Sayed, but near even with either female Democrat, McMorrow or Stevens. They do state their polling are snapshots, so very dependent on when they happen. This most likely may have been before the debate.

Actually this looks about right if the pollster went with a pool that actually voted in 2024 general election.