lukascharts

Are we forgetting that TeamSabrina said "Espresso is close to #1" and promoted it extensively and that Sabrina also promoted Espresso too? Clearly Sabrina and her team's goal was to get a #1. Not trying to drag Sabrina either, all artists would care about getting a #1 if they're close. But denying Sabrina and her team wanted it is wrong. They just messed up by promoting the wrong song to surpass Post/Morgan.

Remember that this is the streaming era. Labels cannot be complacent and talk about how "there's always next week" because songs can blow up and debut or jump to #1 at any moment. Remember when SZA's team decided to not push "Kill Bill" until after Anti-Hero's eighth week at #1? Then Flowers blew up immediately after, and later Last Night, resulting in SZA's team having to push the song for three months, until it finally went #1 because of a remix with another A-list artist. And yeah TOTC significantly underestimated how many streams Please Please Please needed on the last three days to go #1. But I think most of the other public sources said Please Please Please was going or challenging #1, so overall misinformation all around.

charts_sabrina on Twitter claimed 7K physicals so it would only add 7 extra points anyways. Also TeamSabrina recently shifted to promotiong PPP (at least that's what people are saying).

Btw according to the current people running TOTC they think Please Cubed will get 5M US Spotify streams tomorrow, which I assume is what they're using in their prediction. So I'm not sure where ChartPredicts is getting that Please Cubed is challenging for #1, that's nowhere near guaranteed. Then again they predicted U My Everything to debut top 15 and it debuted in the 40's.

Not necessarily, drops are already taken into account.

Amazon is way more influential for Christmas songs' streams than Spotify is. It all depends on how many raw streams it gets from Amazon. Mariah probably goes #1 next week unless Jack increases again.

No, his streams will be increasing. He rose in streams on Spotify during basically the entire tracking week. But yeah, as mentioned above, this is kinda a moot point now. Drake likely takes the #1 next week unless he underperforms.

Even if it misses #1 on the Hot 100 this week, with how fast it's rising on streaming it could go #1 next week.

I think they're accounting for this in earlies already. Like it stayed at #11 on predictions despite the drop on Saturday.

Honestly, I felt like it was fairly obvious it wasn't gonna challenge #1 when it did even worse than 3D on streaming platforms. The last day (when all of their remixes get boosted due to panic buying) they couldn't even get ahead of the country songs that got boosted due to CMA's

I mean it's fine, outside of debuts and close songs nothing much is really going to change. They only did top 10 for a reason. Although yeah I see your point, Jack could go #1 if he increases a bunch in streams tomorrow.

Nobody's overlooking that possibility. If they couldn't push 3D to even the top 2, they aren't pushing this to #1. Standing Next To You is doing worse on streaming than 3D is and is likely doing less physicals. Like Crazy only debuted #1 because of website sales, which were deleted later that year. None of the versions can even surpass The Beatles' song, which is reported to have not done well in sales on Friday (hence why it's not predicted top 10) and might be even lower now. All of the new versions are probably selling 5K max this week, which is only 40K extra sales (and 40 extra points on the Hot 100). And given those were already factored into the #6 prediction, safe to say a push is basically impossible. (And yes, this does mean the original is selling less than The Beatles is).

It's because people have made fake preds about The Beatles going #1 and Lip is pretending they're true for some reason. As long as they're off the TOTC account it doesn't really matter. Cause then you know if a prediction is true (if it's posted publicly on there).

It's honestly not any different from HITSDD posting early unit projections for the Billboard 200 on Saturday (which usually end up needing to be changed later). Not saying they're saints or immune to criticism either, but the same energy needs to be kept for both entities. As for your other point, TOTC hasn't gotten worse at early predictions. In fact, on most stable weeks, their early predictions are usually very accurate (such as last week's). And like it or not stans do want to see predictions as early as possible so TOTC caters to that. Also, ironically, their first 1989 TV prediction might end up becoming the most accurate of those posted so far (with the exception of IION ofc).

How are they underestimating it? They have Paint The Town Red rising 1% and there's no metric it's gaining in (at least not significantly). "CS lost quite a few points due to 1989TV" It was over 250 points last week. Dropping to 215 doesn't change that outcome (it was 209 on the last update but that was before the stable radio updates were released).

Yeah there's basically no way "****!" and "Is It Over Now?" are one point apart, even if you consider the marginal advantages "****!" has in radio, sales, and first-day streams. His predictions two weeks ago should basically tell you everything about his accuracy (saying IDGAF is challenging for #1, having digital sales for Cruel Summer only half of what they actually were at the end of the week, etc.).

It's not just a points increase, but a significant points increase arising due to the movie release. "Significant" is the key word. If it's just a song randomly rising 2% in one week, that's not a good enough gain.

I think it's because of the movie boost. It definitely wouldn't have re-entered otherwise (and I don't think it's locked to re-enter either).

It's still objectively true. Anyways, that's not the point. The point is, I can comment on the accuracy of predictions if I want to.

No. I have the right to comment on the accuracy of predictions, especially when it's blatantly obvious it's inaccurate (as evidenced by today's preds when he put CS' sales at 20K and midweek preds when he said the Drake song "is challenging #1" and it's over 10 points behind #2). The amount of people that care about his content is irrelevant to this point (which is not many anyways considering only his cloutchasing posts make noise). And if you want to talk about me getting "my own bag", I used to run a Twitter account that is miles bigger than his will ever be. And as for "he quit making predictions for awhile" yeah that's because he didn't see any opportunities to clout-chase. At least TOTC, as much as they clout-chase, goes through the hassle of predicting on boring weeks because they actually want to provide accurate, reliable information to people. He skips those weeks because clout is the only thing he cares about. (And this is another reason why he isn't trustworthy, because if he cared about accuracy he would predict on boring weeks since those are more predictable).

The prediction two days ago only had it doing like 15K or something. The new versions sold insanely well (which was evidenced by how quickly they went to the top of iTunes). 50K is definitely a reasonable estimate and it could be even higher. HITS rarely overpredicts TEA as well. (They have ~45K, which is basically a lower bound).

Returning back on topic, With how fast the new versions shot up on the iTunes chart, I think they will sell extremely well. Cruel Summer is definitely locked for #1 and it's probably not even going to be close.

Literally anybody can make and post Hot 100 predictions. What separates good predictions from bad predictions is whether they are accurate. Which Winston's clearly is not. Even people who don't even do predictions posted in this thread saying Winston's prediction wasn't accurate and correctly assumed that the gap was larger.

Nobody's underestimating Drake. Spotify numbers and AM trajectories indicate the song will do around 200 points, compared to Taylor's 220. It's possible Drake might not even be top 3 (with Snooze at #3 instead).

Because Winston's inaccurate (and not trustworthy in general, he only posts in interesting weeks which is proof clout is the only thing he cares about). Streaming and sales are both way up. It's doing way more sales and streams than what the prediction shows. TOTC posted to subs that CS is going to do around 220 points. (It's probably doing 215 points at least, and 215 is if the new version isn't doing many sales, which is highly unlikely given how quickly it shot up to #1 on iTunes.)