Jackson

Peltola is almost assured to win. The NYT analyzed the remaining votes and found that there's practically no way for Sullivan to win, and she'll probably surpass 50% before ranked choice tabulation. Prediction markets also have her at a 99% chance of winning if that means anything

Yeah, a conservative dem (Paul Vallas) got really close to winning the last election. He was actually favored to win and got beaten in an upset. He's pretty far to the left but incompetent and extremely unpopular. His current approval rating is like 22%, so he has basically no chance of getting reelected.

Now one race I'm very concerned about is the Chicago mayoral election coming up in a few months. I don't think a single person to the left of Brandon Johnson is running NYC and LA are both getting DSA mayors and we'll probably be stuck with a normie dem at best for a conservadem at worst

I'm not excited about any of the rumored candidates either but not a single person has actually launched a campaign. I'm going to wait until at least February or March before I start panicking

I agree with all of this. He's been a great governor of Illinois (especially considering our past few governors) and he's very popular among Democrats here. I think he would be a good president but a bad candidate and he probably won't make it that far in the primary. I don't really buy the doomerism amongst people in this thread that were convinced 10 days ago that Texas would go red. A lot can and will happen over the next six months and it's silly to already be saying we're doomed to have a bad candidate in 2028

Pritzker is definitely not a centrist. I'm not sure he would be a very energizing candidate but he's by far the best option of the "definitely running" group

They said last week they'd be done by Friday. They'll be scanning ballots until the minute the election is certified

Honestly Ben McAdams would be a good senate candidate for this race. He won a competitive house district in 2018, is well known in Utah, Mormon (this is essential in Utah politics), and a good fit for the state. He's not very exciting to the left but he's the kind of candidate that could beat Mike Lee.

Totally agree. We'll see what the environment looks like in 1-1.5 years when the primary heats up. Personally my views align much closer with AOC's, but I might support someone else if we're looking at a closer electoral environment. Thankfully I don't see a world where Trump becomes more popular or Republicans are able to distance themselves from him over the next 2 years. Even if Trump decides to wrap up Iran ASAP the consequences will be playing out for years.

Yeah, moderation (or perceived moderation) generally increasing electability is a pretty indisputable fact of electoral politics that I rarely see challenged outside of this thread. But that doesn't mean it's a bad idea to nominate and elect candidates further to the left! I'm glad that El-Sayed, Jackson, and Flanagan were nominated because they won. At the same time, the right candidates were nominated in Kansas and Iowa considering they probably wouldn't have flipped otherwise. And perceived moderation matters much more than actual moderation. Voters perceived Talarico to be more moderate than Crockett (how much of that can be attributed to racism/sexism I don't know, but I'm sure it's a factor) despite him being slightly to her left. Obviously other things also factor into that calculation. If voters aren't happy with the direction of the country, they're not going to support a status-quo moderate. I feel like Nixon COULD have won with more investment, although I agree a different candidate may have had a better margin. And that doesn't mean I think we should nominate a moderate in 2028. I think these results actually suggest the opposite. It might be the right environment for candidate pretty far to the left where we have margin to spare and can still pick up additional senate seats. Every election is somewhat of a triangulation between finding an electable candidate and a candidate that stands for something and can get **** done, and 2028 might finally be the year we elect someone that can pass M4A, election reform, etc and have enough seats in congress to push that agenda through.

It looks like the court-mandated map actually SAVED Republicans from losing seats in Blutah. A massacre

Crazy that we're even having this conversation but I'm hopeful. Idk why the NYT turned the needle off for MS and AK, but it seems like dems are favored in both?

OK little Colomoscopies what's the sip on MS this AM? Is it over for CHS yet?

Colom up by TWENTY EIGHT VOTES STOP THE COUNT!!!

Neither are close, they're easily going to dems, as are Kansas, Iowa, and Maine

BLEXAS, BLANSAS, BLOUTH CAROLINA, MAYBE BLISSISSIPPI?? I need to hold onto this feeling, literally what we've been waiting for for the past decade

I don't think Blorida is happening but it would genuinely be lights out for MAGA if it went blue

I'm fine with this, if dems match or slightly beat their polling nationwide we're gonna be libbing tf out

Nevada has a good chance of being a supermajority dem trifecta too

Not the sudden dooming when there's one mediocre poll out of dozens of great polls for dems that STILL shows Texas going blue Let's not spiral with 24 hours to go

Considering how much time that woman spends talking about Israel and Judaism I thought Jews must've made up a huge chunk of the population in Michigan, but turns out it's like 1.3% of the population For every Jewish vote that this sways towards Rogers it probably turns out two black voters to vote for El-Sayed. Democrats are PISSED at her and will rally behind Abdul even harder now.

Yeah I just really struggle to imagine a case where this tips the scales. If anything I think this destroys her credibility with most voters and turns her into a Synema type

Yeah this definitely won't matter. Anyone that's undecided and still hasn't voted doesn't care what Haley Stevens thinks and probably won't even know this happened. The result would have to be SOOO close for this to have made a difference. Either she's lost her damn mind or realized her only future is as a Fox News contributor

Stevens fully crashing out two days before Election Day isn't going to change any votes but it'll ensure she never gets elected to public office again

Honestly good on him for that one, we need permanent DST NOW