RickyH.

Dems will hold the House regardless of whether or not Biden wins. It's not in play. Don't let the CA-25 race fool you. Look at the data that have been coming in per districts, the fundraising amounts, and the PVIs.

The increasing chances that Dems will win the Senate, hold the House (this hasn't ever really not been an option) and lose the presidency ? Trump would be *pissed* and the 2022 midterms would be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP.

This. I wish the mods would enforce that. I'd love to discuss the other races at hand, especially with the interesting data that are coming out over the past couple of weeks.

Because any of those people would think twice about voting for a Democrat. Look at voter enthusiasm (across the board), the generic congressional ballot, and all of the other means of polling data. 2016 let many of us jaded, but base these beliefs in what is likely to occur in November.

There are no quantifiable data to back these points up. Hillary was within the same margins, if not lower, prior to the election and she still won those states. Claiming that a 5-7 point margin for Biden (7 months before the election ) dictates an immediate landslide loss for him and the Dems isn't justifiable outside of feelings. I don't know if you're one of those people who assume Bernie was the only person who could win, but that could not be farther from the truth. Please look at polling measures, state trends over time, and what you can gather from country-wide trends/forecasting over time. Also, weigh in on the Morning Consult polling being from Feb, meaning a large margin of opinion were built on and based in Jan. Even if weighing in the two to three polls that had his approval "soaring," (literally one or two points up from his average and still well below 50), they've dropped significantly in the past week. Sorry to come across as abrasive, but don't assume he is a shoe in to win, especially when he won by 80k votes across three states combined in 2016. He certainly has not gained support since then, and to assume widely liberal states that have shown no indication of flipping their support for a party is... just incorrect and lacking in knowledge of the US' political spectrum and polling/political data as a whole.

The conspiracy theories in this thread OT: The public has spoken on what *they* want. We'll see how the upcoming election goes. I'm more concerned about the House/Senate races. Dems look to be at a huge advantage in the Senate now. Hopefully we get a 6-7 seat pickup