RickyH.

Dems will hold the House regardless of whether or not Biden wins. It's not in play. Don't let the CA-25 race fool you. Look at the data that have been coming in per districts, the fundraising amounts, and the PVIs.

The increasing chances that Dems will win the Senate, hold the House (this hasn't ever really not been an option) and lose the presidency ? Trump would be *pissed* and the 2022 midterms would be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP.

This. I wish the mods would enforce that. I'd love to discuss the other races at hand, especially with the interesting data that are coming out over the past couple of weeks.

Because any of those people would think twice about voting for a Democrat. Look at voter enthusiasm (across the board), the generic congressional ballot, and all of the other means of polling data. 2016 let many of us jaded, but base these beliefs in what is likely to occur in November.

There are no quantifiable data to back these points up. Hillary was within the same margins, if not lower, prior to the election and she still won those states. Claiming that a 5-7 point margin for Biden (7 months before the election ) dictates an immediate landslide loss for him and the Dems isn't justifiable outside of feelings. I don't know if you're one of those people who assume Bernie was the only person who could win, but that could not be farther from the truth. Please look at polling measures, state trends over time, and what you can gather from country-wide trends/forecasting over time. Also, weigh in on the Morning Consult polling being from Feb, meaning a large margin of opinion were built on and based in Jan. Even if weighing in the two to three polls that had his approval "soaring," (literally one or two points up from his average and still well below 50), they've dropped significantly in the past week. Sorry to come across as abrasive, but don't assume he is a shoe in to win, especially when he won by 80k votes across three states combined in 2016. He certainly has not gained support since then, and to assume widely liberal states that have shown no indication of flipping their support for a party is... just incorrect and lacking in knowledge of the US' political spectrum and polling/political data as a whole.

The conspiracy theories in this thread OT: The public has spoken on what *they* want. We'll see how the upcoming election goes. I'm more concerned about the House/Senate races. Dems look to be at a huge advantage in the Senate now. Hopefully we get a 6-7 seat pickup

So if Bernie does get the nomination (and somehow wins), how do you all/does he expect his lofty proposals to pass through congress, even with the chance of a Republican-controlled Senate? I hope y'all aren't still stuck on the "he'll push it through one way or another" or "get his VP to do it" or "through budget reconciliation." My point stands for *any* Dem president, even the most moderate. Keep in mind getting nothing done will lead to a Republican tsunami. It's one of my prime concerns about us not winning in a landslide large enough to make up for the several House seats we will lose and make a net gain of *at least* 5 seats in the Senate, seeing as we'll lose Doug Jones in Alabama and we want 52 seats at a minimum, not 51, so as to at least try and prevent losing the chamber in 2022. I suppose I'm more interested in his potential proposals for taking office with divided government. It seems none of the candidates have even considered that possibility Honestly the reason I'm skeptical of any plans our candidates have, especially the lofty ones.

I'm wondering (and please, responses from multiple users): What will you all think if the following scenarios were to come true? And by what do y'all think, I mean what would happen to figures like them, too, and their backed movements (i.e., centrism/moderates, mid-left, and far-left/progressivism). Please *no* answers in the vain of "that won't happen" or "it'll only happen if the DNC makes it happen:" 1. Joe Biden wins the nomination but loses the GE 2. Elizabeth Warren wins the nomination but loses the GE 3. Bernie Sanders wins the nomination but loses the GE

Y'all are an off-topic, argumentative mess Maybe it's because I've only read through the last few pages, but is there any discussion on the election going on or just conspiracy theories and screaming from both sides? This thread is going to get shut down. OT: I think it's interesting how the Senate has increased in likelihood to be in play. Also, looks like the House will remain under Dem control. Hoping the candidate will have a strong enough down ballot effect in states where we need Dems in the legislatures for 2021.

While I strongly dislike Bernie (more-so his approach that I find unrealistic and potentially destructive to the party's future, alongside those particular supporters of his who do nothing but attack and belittle others), I've been saying that I will 100% vote for him if he's the nominee. I feel most (and there are many in our party) who strongly dislike/disagree with him will do the same. Either way, whoever the nominee is, I think people will realize what's at risk here and vote blue regardless. If Bernie ends up clinching the nom, I can't imagine most Dems/the left-leaning media will do anything but support him. Regardless, it'll be a messy 2020. Believe that.

Mike Pompeo not running for the open Senate seat in Kansas this year I hope y'all pay close attention to this race. It's looking to (potentially) be one of the largest upsets (favoring Dems) in this upcoming election. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/06/us/politics/mike-pompeo-senate-kansas.html

If he's the one who will win us Senate seats in NC, GA, ME, CO, AZ, IA, AK, and KY (maybe KS/MT/TX depending on the candidates in those states) then sure. But it would take a miracle for me to even consider voting for him in the Primary, as I don't see him being able to carry forth what I mentioned. Only time will tell! Either way, I'll be voting for whoever the Dem nominee is regardless. Primaries are one thing, but hopefully people learned their lesson in the last GE.

I’m currently planning to vote for the potential candidate that I feel will guarantee a Democratic majority in the Senate. I’ll see who that is come my registered state’s (Maryland) primary. I feel that’s an undervalued concept many have yet to realize.

Strongly disagree. I detest both of them, but I'll vote for either if they are the nominee. Even a piece of paper would get my vote. I'm voting Dem no matter who the candidate ends up being. Agreed. I think people learned their lesson from sitting out/protest voting. Hopefully they've learned elections have consequences.

If you can cite every single point you've made here with one or more reliable sources, than I'll happily agree with you and concede that you have made several points to which I was incorrect. Please do not downplay my knowledge of politics in doing so, though. I've followed the subject for *years* and I wouldn't accuse others of not knowing anything about it because I disagree with their points. I prefer to have conversations around politics that don't involve berating and insulting. It's beneath the point you try to make and invalidates what you're attempting to convey. I will add, re: backlash in 2010, much was due to fear mongering by Republicans on a statewide level, while pushing the false narrative that Democrats were to blame for the slowly-improving (though improving nonetheless) economy. Then, ofc, Republicans came into office and threw a wrench in any and all progress that was made. I also do not believe a majority of what was passed during the first two years of Obama's term was bad, such as the Lilly Ledbetter Act, ACA, CHIP, ARRA, Serve America Act, Families Saving Homes Act, Dodd-Frank, DADT Repeal, Job Creation Act, Food Safety/Modernization, CARD Act, Caregivers/Veterans Health Act, etc. I don't wanna get too off topic, though, seeing as this is about 2020. Sorry for the late edit