Vermillion

Honey, half the regular visitors here moved on from Maine as a possibility a while ago. The focus now is putting out culture war fires in Minnesota which is a whole other conversation to unpack.

It was either going to be Kamala or Ossoff getting the nomination - at least that's what I thought the bet was. Recent Beltway common wisdom is Kamala's not running. That's what this comes down to. Is she doesn't run, Ossoff's best bet is that Newsom and Shapiro's egos get the better of them and they overstep their skis in how they excuse the skeletons in their closets. Which is likelier than not. The black vote is more powerful than the MSNow white wine mom faction that like Gavin's interview pull quotes and ignored who he acquiesced to in his new career as a podcaster. Josh's attempts to come for Kamala's extra vetting on Israel loyalties ended up deeply backfiring with the base and will follow him even if she doesn't run. There are steps we need to follow in the process, in this order. Now that Ossoff's win in Georgia is pretty much assured, we proceed as follows. 1) If Kamala runs 2) If Kamala runs, Gavin follows through on his promise not to 3) How Josh then comes for Kamala without upsetting black women 4) Whether Jon follows Gavin's lead and decides not to run 5) How Jon comes for Josh and vice versa Nothing else matters at this point. Not Andy Beshear, not Pete Buttigieg, not Wes Moore, not Rahm Emanuel, and NO, not AOC. The elephant in the room is what constituents are sending Kamala to the top of these polling numbers again, thinking that the problems that caused her loss the first time have changed. We need less lazy thinking than, "well Trump's not running". News flash: Dems bigger problem in the Electoral College than white nationalist Vance's unlikability and warmonger Rubio's inability to win back enough Latino men will be stay homes from the base. If someone can convince me of what this woman plans to change I'm all ears. So far her latest interviews have been a disaster. I'm now baking in a 2028 loss to either Vance or Rubio. The number one reason why is Democrats inability to move on from cowering in fear of being yelled at for misogynoir for suggesting that the party needs to move on from Kamala as a presidential nominee.

Nope, F*** Emily's List

Can we revisit the polling out of Minnesota? Is it an indicator of the salience of the daycare conspiracy for voters or trans athlete talking points? @Communion @ClashAndBurn

Wasn't done, I've got to expand on this. The only candidates that have a chance in 2028 will be able to get base turnout and dampen backlash cultural turnout from the right (AOC's chances here nationally are given on this board consistently with absurd rose-colored glasses). As of now I see the lightning rod issues as being too hot right now for that to be possible. Domestic and foreign, financial and cultural. Iran won't be able to be addressed without confronting Israel. The key demo that flipped, working-class Latino men, can't just be unpacked economically but with the social issue that got them animated according to studies to begin with, which was trans existence. Until the DNC changes its funding structure and Ossoff is willing to tack left on actual votes and not just in rhetoric, 2028 is doomed. Barring some impossible dark horse such as a nuclear winter or forceful Van Hollen entry.

I don't care what anyone says here, this man is not ready for the bloodbath that will be the 2028 primaries. Newsom will take every position on every issue while Shapiro will dig in proudly on the right and he'll be wrecked by both. He'll enter a general deeply bruised, with a deeply divided electorate. If Kamala doesn't run black voters won't be as willing to circle the wagons for him from attacks on both the left and right. He's quickly becoming the new Beto O'Rourke. Andy Beshear is DOA. The biggest problem for a 2028 Democratic nominee is that it's no longer possible to unite the factions anymore for the demos and areas required for the Electoral College. The Liz Cheney strategy failed to get any moderate flips to counter stay homes on the left. No language pretending to appeal to both is going to work anymore. Certainly not Harris' word salads.

@i spit on haters I don't know what to believe anymore :(

This press hype, regardless of whether they ask for it, is part of the problem. It gives ammunition to those moderates arguing progressives are just idealists really chasing celebrity which disproportionately and unfairly dents polling early. I say grant interviews to no national media but exclusively their local outlets only and don't run away from the term grouping but have a prepared answer on policy positions when asked by those same national outlets you've avoided.

Not this being what I come back to

Choosin' Texas being number one now for the longest period of history and the VMAs having the lowest ratings ever are the final two nails in the coffin for an indication that the monoculture is officially dead. I mean, it has been for a while now, but it's now indisputable.

@PoisonedIvy Facing multiple charges now in Massachusetts including rape. Time for a thread title update

What proof do you have that it's either of these things?