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When do you predict Taylor Swift's current level of success will start to slow down?


Strawberry Bubble

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Next Thursday at 11 47 am eastern

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Considering her fanbase isn't going anywhere it's really hard to tell. Taylor's career has been in uncharted territory for a while now, there's really no telling how her her career will pan out going forward. 

 

Let's also not forget she has the Superbowl HT show in her back pocket whenever she does start to experience a bit of a decline. That will definitely boost her catalog all over again. Not to mention the inevitable Icon, Legend, Impact etc awards she'll be receiving at award shows in the future. 

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It mostly won't go anywhere. 
 

She can score another decade of AC radio success with occasional top 40 crossover.
 

She'll always be a huge touring force, and will probably be able to sell out stadiums in most US markets for ages to come. Maybe even the rest of her life. 

 

She'll sustain enough of a fanbase to eventually hitting Barbra's record of scoring #1 albums in six decades. 

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Never :ryan3:

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Earliest, probably the late 2020s once the phase of releasing the new recordings is over because they are chief to keeping her name in the charts and discussions. You can say she'll just commensurate it by releasing more albums frequently but I'm assuming she doesn't do that in this case.

Otherwise, I think around the early 2030s or anytime the Gen Alpha kids become the main demographic of music-listening audiences and IDK what they listen to and whether they'd care about Taylor by that time. 

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When she herself "slows down". Like if she took 5-10 years between albums then I think her fans might slowly shift interest. But she will always be a pretty big name in music I think

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What do you mean by slow down? She sold 17 million units last year in the US so if she "only" does like 13 million this year, then technically she will have slowed down.  

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I think by 2030 she will only be doing about 75% as good as she's doing now at most. Then by 2035 she will be around 50% her current level. Then by 2040 she will be below that commercially. 

 

But honestly Swifties on this forum ate. Because by the time she starts flopping and is overshadowed this forum would have been shutdown already so they won't get lashings. 

 

I think Taylor will upkeep her current numbers for two more years before we see any sign of the hype dying down.

 

TL:DR

2027 when it begins. 

2030 when it's noticeable.

2035 when it hurts.

2040 when it is over. 

Edited by Namie-Knowles
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1 hour ago, byzantium said:

What do you mean by slow down? She sold 17 million units last year in the US so if she "only" does like 13 million this year, then technically she will have slowed down.  

By "slowing down" I mean becoming number two, behind another MPG. Like, she has no competition right now, when will that change? 

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5 minutes ago, Strawberry Bubble said:

By "slowing down" I mean becoming number two, behind another MPG. Like, she has no competition right now, when will that change? 

Oh.  Well she has more or less been the top MPG for the past 16 years.  I would say maybe around 2030. 

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5 hours ago, dman4life said:

Considering her fanbase isn't going anywhere it's really hard to tell. Taylor's career has been in uncharted territory for a while now, there's really no telling how her her career will pan out going forward. 

 

Let's also not forget she has the Superbowl HT show in her back pocket whenever she does start to experience a bit of a decline. That will definitely boost her catalog all over again. Not to mention the inevitable Icon, Legend, Impact etc awards she'll be receiving at award shows in the future. 

And when she becomes  the youngest woman to be inducted into the Rock Hall in 2032 :jonny:

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BrandNewBrandon

I don't think she'll reach the peak of what 2023 was for her. Another Grammy AOTY could be disastrous for her reputation for the GP, TTPD is serving yet another break-up album about an ex and I don't think it's as exciting as her previous album was. The re-recordings have already had her biggest album be released so there's probably not more peaks left there. She probably won't flop but I think she's slowly going to decline when TTDP will be released. It could be her BTW in that it is a huge success from the get-go but it won't have the same longevity as her previous album. It's a slow decline but it could already be happening. 

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3 minutes ago, BrandNewBrandon said:

I don't think she'll reach the peak of what 2023 was for her. Another Grammy AOTY could be disastrous for her reputation for the GP, TTPD is serving yet another break-up album about an ex and I don't think it's as exciting as her previous album was. The re-recordings have already had her biggest album be released so there's probably not more peaks left there. She probably won't flop but I think she's slowly going to decline when TTDP will be released. It could be her BTW in that it is a huge success from the get-go but it won't have the same longevity as her previous album. It's a slow decline but it could already be happening. 

This sounds moreso like wishful thinking than anything. You'd have to be pretty out of touch to think TTPD is gonna be anything but a bonafide smash and probably her biggest album ever.

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When she decides to retire :suburban:

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BrandNewBrandon
8 minutes ago, Uzumaki. said:

TTPD is gonna be anything but a bonafide smash and probably her biggest album ever.

Girl. You could feel the impact 21 had in numerous ways and the hype was strong as **** so there was no surprise when 25 smashed as it did. And yet it didn't outdo 21. 

 

You're trying to tell me TTPD is going to be bigger than 1989? I mean, good for her if it happens but it sounds like you are a Taylor stan who has Taylor-glasses on. 

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20 minutes ago, BrandNewBrandon said:

I don't think she'll reach the peak of what 2023 was for her. Another Grammy AOTY could be disastrous for her reputation for the GP, TTPD is serving yet another break-up album about an ex and I don't think it's as exciting as her previous album was. The re-recordings have already had her biggest album be released so there's probably not more peaks left there. She probably won't flop but I think she's slowly going to decline when TTDP will be released. It could be her BTW in that it is a huge success from the get-go but it won't have the same longevity as her previous album. It's a slow decline but it could already be happening. 

We haven't had a break up album about an ex in over a decade. If anything I think that could signal more, not less, interest in the album. 

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25 minutes ago, BrandNewBrandon said:

I don't think she'll reach the peak of what 2023 was for her. Another Grammy AOTY could be disastrous for her reputation for the GP, TTPD is serving yet another break-up album about an ex and I don't think it's as exciting as her previous album was. The re-recordings have already had her biggest album be released so there's probably not more peaks left there. She probably won't flop but I think she's slowly going to decline when TTDP will be released. It could be her BTW in that it is a huge success from the get-go but it won't have the same longevity as her previous album. It's a slow decline but it could already be happening. 

I believe she's on the brink of another peak. It may not reach the heights of 2023, but she's bound to release another massive album. There are still uncharted concepts for her to delve into. I do anticipate a decline post-2026 or 2027, but she still has the golden touch.

 

We can also wait for her next tour. She is already an established touring act, so her next tour will revive her catalog (maybe not as much as the eras tour, but I really don't see her having a big decline until 2030). 

Edited by Strawberry Bubble
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BrandNewBrandon
4 minutes ago, Goaty said:

We haven't had a break up album about an ex in over a decade. If anything I think that could signal more, not less, interest in the album. 

But the public's attention towards her albums being about exes hasn't been more profound so a new one might break the fascination of it for them. They don't follow her precisely enough to know what album came before that (and the re-recordings have made it messy) so this might as well be yet another album about an ex so that could drive less interest. But then again people love drama. It's hard to say. 

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BrandNewBrandon
5 minutes ago, Strawberry Bubble said:

I believe she's on the brink of another peak. It may not reach the heights of 2023, but she's bound to release another massive album. There are still uncharted concepts for her to delve into. I do anticipate a decline post-2026 or 2027, but her talent remains golden.

 

We can also wait for her next tour. She is already an established touring act, so her next tour will revive her catalog (maybe not as much as the eras tour, but I really don't see her having a big decline until 2030). 

Decreases happen before you know it. It can happen now or in 10 years or in between albums. It's hard to anticipate. 

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9 hours ago, Taylena said:

She should be afraid of Ms. Vicky Jang Wonyoung

Agreed

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Usually when a MPG gets married and has kids is when a decline happens. 

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37 minutes ago, BrandNewBrandon said:

Girl. You could feel the impact 21 had in numerous ways and the hype was strong as **** so there was no surprise when 25 smashed as it did. And yet it didn't outdo 21. 

 

You're trying to tell me TTPD is going to be bigger than 1989? I mean, good for her if it happens but it sounds like you are a Taylor stan who has Taylor-glasses on. 

I'm nowhere close to being a Taylor Swift "stan" but you need to be for real…

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BrandNewBrandon
5 minutes ago, Uzumaki. said:

I'm nowhere close to being a Taylor Swift "stan" but you need to be for real…

I don't think neither the artwork nor the aesthetics scream a 1989-type of album and I don't think she could beat 1989's sales with something like that. I could be wrong though but you are downright saying it will be a 40+ million seller. 

Edited by BrandNewBrandon
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