Cbreezy Posted March 16 Posted March 16 33 minutes ago, luxurious said: I’m hoping for a 50m+ debut on global Spotify but what I really want is stronger stability similar to SOS or eternal sunshine (so far). the fact that it’s coming out on Easter weekend basically destroys that hope though lol I need her team to not drop the ball when it comes to promoting the right post album single in a timely manner (remember summer renaissance getting the playlisting alien superstar deserved) THIS! That was so frustrating. It seemed like they wanted more of the album showcased, so “worked” a number of focus tracks on release (but mainly Summer Ren). But IMO, putting all of the weight behind like an Alien would have been equally if not way more impactful. Like, sis, read the room and get your hits when they’re calling for it. A good external example is Ariana Grande. I don’t even care for her newest single, but it’s objectively the most commercial on the album outside of her lead. It got mega playlisting along with the album release and is now largely carrying the whole project’s streams. I’m fairly certain there will be bops on the album (there always are). So I hope they work the right ones out of the gate as it will help everything from jump. May the force be with them (and us because these eras are a rollercoaster, often for no needed reason lol) 1
Kristie Kuwa Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) I think some of yall overrate the Easter holidays - this is not a christmas situation. There are no easter-smashas a la AIWFCIY and its also not a season where radio drops anything that is easter-related We'd obviously need data from 1-3 years ago to see if music consumption was indeed lower during those days, but I honestly highly doubt it Edited March 16 by Kristie Kuwa
Matangi Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 hour ago, Cbreezy said: Thank you for this because it contextualizes a lot. I'm seeing a lot of feelings-based predictions, but this is data and data is hard to counter. There's been a few "she's gonna do at least 400k because she's Beyonce"..."she's an album artist"..."she has a #1 smash single"...etc. That all DOES factor in, but I'm not sure if it's to the extent y'all think it will. With Ren, she had the hype of it being her first solo album in 6 years and she maximized the preorder window, getting buzz buys before we even heard BMS. With CC, we're less than two years removed from her last album, she has a #1 smash but one that is not her usual sound (and is more GP-driven which is never a guarantee for albums sales), and has a much smaller preorder window. To her benefit, of course, is that she has a bigger streaming presence and curiosity listens (which I think will benefit her streams more than pure sales). So, while big sales aren't out of the question, I don't think it's as much of a given as some of y'all seem to be anticipating. FYI, I WANT her to do the big numbers some of y'all are throwing out. I'm just...cautious. I'll have way less doubt if she goes all out with more variants, bonus tracks ala Taylor, retail store exclusives (Amazon, Target etc). Like, in her own way, she has to... work for it. Reveal hidden contents Seeing the big predictions and the reasons why now makes all the pushback on the preorder debate make a bit more sense to me lol. A lot of y'all expect big sales "because" she's Beyonce and "always" sells a certain amount. I guess my issue with that is that she has typically had to do all the things necessary to make that happen (outside of ST and Lemonade, which themselves had their own unique hype drivers with the surprise release and visual elements). Beyond that yesteryear Bey did all that promo and Ren Bey played the preorder/variants game well and arguably better than what we're seeing now. Thank you, finally someone with some common sense in here. The Hive members predicting 400-500k numbers are in for a very rude awakening. And this has nothing to do with downplaying the Queen or anything, I really couldn't care less about any numbers and I am always just here for the music. But lets also not forget how the economic situation in early/mid 2022 was much better than now, 2 years later people are even struggling more....all factors that need to be included. 3
Matangi Posted March 16 Posted March 16 12 minutes ago, Devin said: act ii: First Week Predictions 232K - satellites™ 275K - sillycilla 300K - Armani?, Cbreezy, Jai, futuresuperstar2023 305K - PrettyHurts 315K - QueenB 320K - Starshine 330K - Lovett 335K - trainsskyscrapers 345K - Burn, luxurious, suneclipse121 350K - Massive_Teardrop, Beyle Street, ReneighIsHere 365K - Hallad173, Jon Snow, Aristotle 366K - kimberly 370K - Erotica 375K - Lose My Breath, YellowRibbon 385K - cuteboyzay 388K - benyonce 397K - Slamless 400K - Devin, QueenDiva, Havoc, SoundsandSongs, Punch, Mr. Specialist, Bey’Knight 401K - Redporus 404K - ShouldersSideways 410K - ToraeGilt 412K - Kristie Kuwa 415K - Kalmanta 420K - SashaDevachelli 440K - V$ 444K - Crayzik 450K - MrPiggyMoka, gisellecarter4, Space&Time 475K - cloudbusting 515K - Blue Rose 540K - PrudenceHCharmed 550K - Chris add 250k - MATANGI
benyonce Posted March 16 Posted March 16 9 minutes ago, Lose My Breath said: She definitely does, and they're almost sold out (mainland). I'm not sure about the UK though UK White - 1524 Blue - 1056 Red - 1143 Black - 6777 1
Cbreezy Posted March 16 Posted March 16 26 minutes ago, Kingdom said: so what exactly is your prediction? I already shared it earlier. I'm saying 300k. I think a little under that and a little over that are also plausible and still set her up for a Ren sales trajectory. I want way more and will gladly eat all the humble pie if she smashes way harder.
Lose My Breath Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Just now, benyonce said: UK White - 1524 Blue - 1056 Red - 1143 Black - 6777 Thanks! I'm so curious what she started with, any idea? I wish we had the start for mainland, too.
benyonce Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 minute ago, Lose My Breath said: Thanks! I'm so curious what she started with, any idea? I wish we had the start for mainland, too. No idea but I wish I didn't bother to learn how to check. Now I feel like I need to nab a red copy before it sells out.
Kristie Kuwa Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Kristie Kuwa said: I think some of yall overrate the Easter holidays - this is not a christmas situation. There are no easter-smashas a la AIWFCIY and its also not a season where radio drops anything that is easter-related We'd obviously need data from 1-3 years ago to see if music consumption was indeed lower during those days, but I honestly highly doubt it Just checked: music comsumption is indeed by 5-10% lower on Easter Friday and Saturday than on comparative weekends. We are ******. let me change my prediction to 302k instead of 412k Edited March 16 by Kristie Kuwa 2
Lose My Breath Posted March 16 Posted March 16 3 minutes ago, benyonce said: No idea but I wish I didn't bother to learn how to check. Now I feel like I need to nab a red copy before it sells out. I snatched the red yesterday here in the US. I did the red shirt box, white and red vinyl, debating on the blue..... 1
Lose My Breath Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Just now, Kristie Kuwa said: Just checked: music comsumption is indeed by 5-10% lower on Easter Friday and Saturday than on comparative weekends. We are ****** I assumed as much lol.... It'll just make her rebound even better on Monday
sillycilla Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 hour ago, Cbreezy said: Thank you for this because it contextualizes a lot. I'm seeing a lot of feelings-based predictions, but this is data and data is hard to counter. There's been a few "she's gonna do at least 400k because she's Beyonce"..."she's an album artist"..."she has a #1 smash single"...etc. That all DOES factor in, but I'm not sure if it's to the extent y'all think it will. With Ren, she had the hype of it being her first solo album in 6 years and she maximized the preorder window, getting buzz buys before we even heard BMS. With CC, we're less than two years removed from her last album, she has a #1 smash but one that is not her usual sound (and is more GP-driven which is never a guarantee for albums sales), and has a much smaller preorder window. To her benefit, of course, is that she has a bigger streaming presence and curiosity listens (which I think will benefit her streams more than pure sales). So, while big sales aren't out of the question, I don't think it's as much of a given as some of y'all seem to be anticipating. FYI, I WANT her to do the big numbers some of y'all are throwing out. I'm just...cautious. I'll have way less doubt if she goes all out with more variants, bonus tracks ala Taylor, retail store exclusives (Amazon, Target etc). Like, in her own way, she has to... work for it. Reveal hidden contents Seeing the big predictions and the reasons why now makes all the pushback on the preorder debate make a bit more sense to me lol. A lot of y'all expect big sales "because" she's Beyonce and "always" sells a certain amount. I guess my issue with that is that she has typically had to do all the things necessary to make that happen (outside of ST and Lemonade, which themselves had their own unique hype drivers with the surprise release and visual elements). Beyond that yesteryear Bey did all that promo and Ren Bey played the preorder/variants game well and arguably better than what we're seeing now. Exactly! The most logical conclusion. 2
SoundsandSongs Posted March 16 Posted March 16 2 minutes ago, Lose My Breath said: I assumed as much lol.... It'll just make her rebound even better on Monday I see CC having more potential for longevity and that's all that matters in the end. Country music in general seems to have more longevity on the charts than lgbt-centric house music and she's going into it with a recognisable global smash viral on tiktok this time. 1
BnPac Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 hour ago, luxurious said: I’m hoping for a 50m+ debut on global Spotify but what I really want is stronger stability similar to SOS or eternal sunshine (so far). the fact that it’s coming out on Easter weekend basically destroys that hope though lol I need her team to not drop the ball when it comes to promoting the right post album single in a timely manner (remember summer renaissance getting the playlisting alien superstar deserved) Yes I agree, longevity is way more important but tbh that's exactly where I expect them to drop the ball. Never has a clearance for a huge second hit been as obvious as AS and they managed to kill it. Longevity and great holds come with a good single post album : Sour, Eternal Sunshine, SOS are good proof of this. I find the predictions a bit high for now. I thought the reason for the hold up on pre-orders was something big. I will wait to see if that something big is coming or she has a plan before placing mine, for now I am not that confident it can get above Ren tbh. 4
Starshine Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Rennie 121k CD 43k Digital 26k Vinyl 142k Streaming -332k debut I kinda see Cowboy Carter doing 70-90k CD (2 box sets, but maybe people find 2 sets more appealing than buying all 4 Renaissance sets) 50k Digital (this era is doing well digitally) 50-60k Vinyl (more variants) 150-160k Streaming -320k to 360k range 3
sillycilla Posted March 16 Posted March 16 16 minutes ago, Matangi said: Thank you, finally someone with some common sense in here. The Hive members predicting 400-500k numbers are in for a very rude awakening. And this has nothing to do with downplaying the Queen or anything, I really couldn't care less about any numbers and I am always just here for the music. But let’s also not forget how the economic situation in early/mid 2022 was much better than now, 2 years later people are even struggling more....all factors that need to be included. Those of us with more safe predictions have factored a lot. 14 minutes ago, Cbreezy said: I already shared it earlier. I'm saying 300k. I think a little under that and a little over that are also plausible and still set her up for a Ren sales trajectory. I want way more and will gladly eat all the humble pie if she smashes way harder. I’m sticking with my 275k-300k. I’m not seeing any higher without a push. 1
sillycilla Posted March 16 Posted March 16 THE needs a visual or performance. That’s just the truth. And the album sale/longevity will absolutely depend on the caliber of the second single. Whoever made that observation was spot on. We all know they don’t have the best track record at choosing singles and playlist placements.
Kingdom Posted March 16 Posted March 16 beyonce is not doing less than 300k and some of you need to know that....LMAO
Bears01 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 I honestly think she’s gonna have more success globally this era than in the U.S. Europe seems to be absolutely loving this new sound from her, and I think the REN tour did something for her celebrity status there (she’s always been a global A lister). Which, hey I’m here for!
benyonce Posted March 16 Posted March 16 8 minutes ago, Bears01 said: I honestly think she’s gonna have more success globally this era than in the U.S. Europe seems to be absolutely loving this new sound from her, and I think the REN tour did something for her celebrity status there (she’s always been a global A lister). Which, hey I’m here for! The tour felt huge there when I was travelling around, far bigger than it did for the FWT. I think there would be more demand for an Act II tour there than there would be another in the US right now. Can someone from the US please update the stock numbers?
Kristie Kuwa Posted March 16 Posted March 16 16 minutes ago, Bears01 said: I honestly think she’s gonna have more success globally this era than in the U.S. Europe seems to be absolutely loving this new sound from her, and I think the REN tour did something for her celebrity status there (she’s always been a global A lister). Which, hey I’m here for! I mean not really surprising, House/EDM/Dance has always been way bigger in Europe than in the US. To this day, we have Renaissance themed gay parties here in Europe. Its definitely huge and has reignited a lot of love towards Bey 1
Kalmanta Posted March 16 Posted March 16 29 minutes ago, Starshine said: Rennie 121k CD 43k Digital 26k Vinyl 142k Streaming -332k debut I kinda see Cowboy Carter doing 70-90k CD (2 box sets, but maybe people find 2 sets more appealing than buying all 4 Renaissance sets) 50k Digital (this era is doing well digitally) 50-60k Vinyl (more variants) 150-160k Streaming -320k to 360k range CC has 4 CD variants plus 2 box sets. Stock left rom Reddit 2 days ago: CD 🤍: 46935 CD 💙: 21095 Box Set CD 🖤: 33503 total, sizes have differing amounts Box Set CD ♥️: 28578 total, sizes have differing amounts
Devin Posted March 16 Posted March 16 act ii: First Week Predictions 232K - satellites™ 250K - Matangi 275K - sillycilla 300K - Armani?, Cbreezy, Jai, futuresuperstar2023 305K - PrettyHurts 315K - QueenB 320K - Starshine 330K - Lovett 335K - trainsskyscrapers 345K - Burn, luxurious, suneclipse121 350K - Massive_Teardrop, Beyle Street, ReneighIsHere 360K - Tripthelight 365K - Hallad173, Jon Snow, Aristotle 366K - kimberly 370K - Erotica 375K - Lose My Breath, YellowRibbon, BGKC 385K - cuteboyzay 388K - benyonce 392K - Rafael 397K - Slamless 400K - Devin, QueenDiva, Havoc, SoundsandSongs, Punch, Mr. Specialist, Bey’Knight 401K - Redporus 404K - ShouldersSideways 410K - ToraeGilt 412K - Kristie Kuwa 415K - Kalmanta 420K - SashaDevachelli 425K - pieuxvu 440K - V$ 444K - Crayzik, OnMyCoolJ 450K - MrPiggyMoka, gisellecarter4, Space&Time 475K - cloudbusting 515K - Blue Rose 540K - PrudenceHCharmed 550K - Chris, Mitsouko
Kristie Kuwa Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Spotify Global Artist Charts (today): #10 Ireland #12 UK #12 The Netherlands #13 Belgium #15 South Africa #20 Australia #26 Norway #27 Sweden #27 Iceland #30 Switzerland #30 Denmark #33 Austria #40 France #45 Germany #45 USA #48 Israel I feel like this tells the whole Story. Bey is comparatively speaking bigger in Europe than in the US
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