Kristie Kuwa Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 minute ago, Bey'Knight said: I predict 400k. If Bey can do over 300k with a middling lead, then she can reach the next hundred thousandth mark with a bona fide one. Also, there are way more units available this time, like 4x as much so of course they won’t be sold out as quickly. We were all complaining there didn’t secure enough physicals for Ren. She has few cards left to play: cover reveal, tracklisting, possible record store tie-ins. And I hope she has an ace up her sleeve. Though if we end up with no more than an insta post, won’t be surprised. Beyoncé simply doesn’t have the hunger to maximise her commercial potential. I’m sure her mental health is all the better for it. I wouldnt say shes not hungry, she clearly is in terms of her art. I think its rather deliberate. There's a reason theres always so much hype around her releases and I really think its because she keeps it comparatively subdued on the "pushing" front. She lets her music do the talk and in times of oversaturation, people seem to appreciate that approach 1
Burn Posted March 16 Posted March 16 4 hours ago, cloudbusting said: wait I just realized how cunty THIQUE on a mechanical bull would’ve been… much more iconic than that sad treadmill barre snooze Tbh I have wondered if the reason she was ok with omitting Thique, AUIYM and DrIL from a lot of RWT shows was because she plans to give them their shine at one of the act ii or act iii tours. I can see Thique being for the act ii tour like you said. And AUIYM and DrIL at the act iii/rock themed shows.
Bey'Knight Posted March 16 Posted March 16 3 minutes ago, Kristie Kuwa said: I wouldnt say shes not hungry, she clearly is in terms of her art. I think its rather deliberate. There's a reason theres always so much hype around her releases and I really think its because she keeps it comparatively subdued on the "pushing" front. She lets her music do the talk and in times of oversaturation, people seem to appreciate that approach Oh I was referring strictly to commerciality. She’s the most judicious she’s ever been where art is concerned. There’s a reason she stands heads and shoulders above her peers from late 90s/early 00s. Even when she was doing EIL/TG numbers, it didnt define her narrative except in disingenuous spaces like atrl. I'm surprised you confused my point when I explicitly qualified with “commercial” in the same sentence. I meant she’s not going the extra mile to secure the absolute highest FW sales possible: she hasn’t even acknowledged the lead since its release, no live appearances, no special concerts , no talkshow stints, no in-depth interviews, no BTS peeks. Heck we don’t even have a cover story this time, both were for cecred. I’d love even a fraction of these but I get the impression she’s distilled her focus to its absolutes: self / family / art / business. After nearly 30 years in the game, it’s a healthy place to be mentally, at the detriment of stan satisfaction. Hate to bring up the other lady, but the tactics she employs to keep her songs/albums at no.1, I find embarrassing. Her sense of self is disturbingly tied to public validation. If it were ever to go away or even shows cracks of decline, her loved ought to be concerned, which is sad, cus like Bey, she has nothing else to prove. 1
Space&Time Posted March 16 Posted March 16 3 hours ago, ToraeGilt said: Y’all are crAzy if you think CC is doing less than 300k. Beyoncé is an album artist, even when her singles flop, her album will still do well. Texas being the hit that it is only bodes well for the album because this time the GP will also be tuned in as opposed to renny. We will also have those curiosity streams because everyone and their mama would want to know how a Beyoncé country album will sound. Renny also had limited bundles on sale both for box sets and vinyls which is the opposite of CC. One reason why those pose boxes sold out so quickly was because everyone was buying from the same store. This time the EU/Uk store was created separately from US/CAN. my prediction- 410k I think 400K is a safe and fair bet. I’m gonna say 450K and more possible if we get some sort of promo or visual.
TizTiz Posted March 16 Posted March 16 11 hours ago, PrettyHurts said: yes but the era was announced with preorder and they were on sale for longer, it also had comeback hype. the announcement of cc preorder was less of a big deal, especially since the album was already announced weeks before. i'm not trying to be negative i just wonder if cc will have enough time to sell on par with ren. streaming will definitely be great though A large part of her core base in the general public and casual listeners dislike or are tired of "Texas Hold'em" and have no idea "16 Carriages" exists. Unsurprisingly, a lot of blk ppl are still expecting an album full of "Love On Top", "Ego", "Irreplaceable" and are soooo appalled shes doing a country+bluesy inspired album- to drive with a visual component- or haven't yet registered that's whats going to happen. Streaming will definitely be her stronghold, all things considered, but the album will speak for itself after the first week (not like there's another option in the plan). Of course, the album will be quality and will have something different from TXH for the gp to hold onto. The X & Insta fans will be mass buying anyway🤣🤣❗️I don't think there will be great physical sales, but great sales all together.
Kristie Kuwa Posted March 16 Posted March 16 34 minutes ago, Bey'Knight said: Oh I was referring strictly to commerciality. She’s the most judicious she’s ever been where art is concerned. There’s a reason she stands heads and shoulders above her peers from late 90s/early 00s. Even when she was doing EIL/TG numbers, it didnt define her narrative except in disingenuous spaces like atrl. I'm surprised you confused my point when I explicitly qualified with “commercial” in the same sentence. I meant she’s not going the extra mile to secure the absolute highest FW sales possible: she hasn’t even acknowledged the lead since its release, no live appearances, no special concerts , no talkshow stints, no in-depth interviews, no BTS peeks. Heck we don’t even have a cover story this time, both were for cecred. I’d love even a fraction of these but I get the impression she’s distilled her focus to its absolutes: self / family / art / business. After nearly 30 years in the game, it’s a healthy place to be mentally, at the detriment of stan satisfaction. Hate to bring up the other lady, but the tactics she employs to keep her songs/albums at no.1, I find embarrassing. Her sense of self is disturbingly tied to public validation. If it were ever to go away or even shows cracks of decline, her loved ought to be concerned, which is sad, cus like Bey, she has nothing else to prove. So true! Also its super interesting to see how Beys approach this past decade has actually achieved what she always dreamt of: For her music to be experienced purely without any distraction. She always said how she envied the singers back in the 70s like Nina Simone who were judged based on their voices and music and not on their persona, and unironically, I think the world has caught up to Bey. Even tho she does this miniminal effort thing with her releases, the world keeps on enjoying her and her music. Heck, THE is still reaching new global peaks as we speak and is showing the utmost stability in her major markets. Its so amazing seeing this evolution as a fan. She really feels like an entitiy detached from the rest, even from #that girl 1
Kingdom Posted March 16 Posted March 16 5 minutes ago, TizTiz said: A large part of her core base in the general public and casual listeners dislike or are tired of "Texas Hold'em" and have no idea "16 Carriages" exists. Unsurprisingly, a lot of blk ppl are still expecting an album full of "Love On Top", "Ego", "Irreplaceable" and are soooo appalled shes doing a country+bluesy inspired album- to drive with a visual component- or haven't yet registered that's whats going to happen. Streaming will definitely be her stronghold, all things considered, but the album will speak for itself after the first week (not like there's another option in the plan). Of course, the album will be quality and will have something different from TXH for the gp to hold onto. The X & Insta fans will be mass buying anyway🤣🤣❗️I don't think there will be great physical sales, but great sales all together. Yeah this is a si*** assumption. black people are not stupid..they know she has a COUNTRY album coming, nog an r&b album and they are also curious to hear it. That is why her streaming will be much better than renee. Her pure sales will be fine. 1 1
ReneighIsHere Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) I think she’s 100% doing more than Renaissance.. streaming numbers will probably be better, but it all depends on how “digestible” the album will be for the GP. Renaissance was not an easy for listen for those who didn’t like the genre (except for cuff it), and there’s nothing that the american GP hates more than house/dance music. The renaissance preorders sold out faster it’s true, but it’s probably cause the stock was more limited and there were way less options to buy. Cowboy Carter already sold approximately +50k vinyls and 40k box sets/CDs, and she hasn’t even revealed the cover art and tracklist yet. If she also has the standard vinyl available in stores upon release (which i think she will) that’s another 50k vinyls sold, i dont see how she wouldn’t AT LEAST match Renaissance’s pure sales. Considering the streams will probably be higher, I’m expecting a +350k debut . Edited March 16 by ReneighIsHere 3
Lovett Posted March 16 Posted March 16 I'm going with 330k @Devin. I think it'll be similar to Rennie. 1
Kalmanta Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Do people really expect pure sales as low as 150k? She is probably almost at 100k preorders with 3 weeks worth of selling still left, a cover and tracklist reveal she for sure will post to her 300M Insta followers. Right now 400k streaming + sales is definitely possible. I’m going with 415k. 2
Crayzik Posted March 16 Posted March 16 If she's still playing the elusive I can see her open with 444K but if this time she releases a groundbreaking visual for THE () or even a performance she can pull more than 500k. I don't know for ya'll but my weekend will start the 3.28 - no way i'm working the day of a B release 2
Erotica Posted March 16 Posted March 16 I am expecting FW sales to be around the 370k-380k mark. Also really wish we can get a documentary at the end of the three act and witness the thought and work process of how everything came together! 1
Kristie Kuwa Posted March 16 Posted March 16 4 minutes ago, Crayzik said: If she's still playing the elusive I can see her open with 444K but if this time she releases a groundbreaking visual for THE () or even a performance she can pull more than 500k. I don't know for ya'll but my weekend will start the 3.28 - no way i'm working the day of a B release The way we'll only be able to share our experience March 30th because the servers will inevitably crash 1 4
Cbreezy Posted March 16 Posted March 16 7 hours ago, benyonce said: So I did some digging through the Ren thread on ATRL. We were all so shook. Some people reporting their receipt numbers and speculating at over a million sold based on this Pose 4 sold out in 3 days Pose 1 Sold out in 5 days Pose 3 Sold out in 6 days Pose 2 Sold out in 7 days https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/beyonce-renaissance-billboard-200-debut-no-1-1235123568/ "Renaissance sold 121,000 copies on CD, 43,000 via digital downloads and 26,000 on vinyl. Renaissance’s initial album sales figure is largely driven by direct-to-consumer sales of the album through internet retailers, with 72% of its first-week sales coming through web-based sellers (136,000 of 190,000). Those sellers included Beyoncé’s official webstore (where she sold four limited edition deluxe boxed set editions of the album containing a T-shirt and a CD – all of which are sold out)." Either way, I maintain my initial thoughts from when she put up the pre-orders. Sales will be lower unless she does a big push with the main variant and streams will be up. "While Renaissance’s internet-based sales were hefty, the album would have still been No. 1 on the Billboard 200 without any sales from internet sellers. Further, the set would have been No. 1 without selling a single copy, as it still would have perched atop the list from only streaming activity (with streaming equaling 138,000 SEA units)." Thank you for this because it contextualizes a lot. I'm seeing a lot of feelings-based predictions, but this is data and data is hard to counter. There's been a few "she's gonna do at least 400k because she's Beyonce"..."she's an album artist"..."she has a #1 smash single"...etc. That all DOES factor in, but I'm not sure if it's to the extent y'all think it will. With Ren, she had the hype of it being her first solo album in 6 years and she maximized the preorder window, getting buzz buys before we even heard BMS. With CC, we're less than two years removed from her last album, she has a #1 smash but one that is not her usual sound (and is more GP-driven which is never a guarantee for albums sales), and has a much smaller preorder window. To her benefit, of course, is that she has a bigger streaming presence and curiosity listens (which I think will benefit her streams more than pure sales). So, while big sales aren't out of the question, I don't think it's as much of a given as some of y'all seem to be anticipating. FYI, I WANT her to do the big numbers some of y'all are throwing out. I'm just...cautious. I'll have way less doubt if she goes all out with more variants, bonus tracks ala Taylor, retail store exclusives (Amazon, Target etc). Like, in her own way, she has to... work for it. Spoiler Seeing the big predictions and the reasons why now makes all the pushback on the preorder debate make a bit more sense to me lol. A lot of y'all expect big sales "because" she's Beyonce and "always" sells a certain amount. I guess my issue with that is that she has typically had to do all the things necessary to make that happen (outside of ST and Lemonade, which themselves had their own unique hype drivers with the surprise release and visual elements). Beyond that yesteryear Bey did all that promo and Ren Bey played the preorder/variants game well and arguably better than what we're seeing now. 2
Kristie Kuwa Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Cbreezy said: Thank you for this because it contextualizes a lot. I'm seeing a lot of feelings-based predictions, but this is data and data is hard to counter. There's been a few "she's gonna do at least 400k because she's Beyonce"..."she's an album artist"..."she has a #1 smash single"...etc. That all DOES factor in, but I'm not sure if it's to the extent y'all think it will. With Ren, she had the hype of it being her first solo album in 6 years and she maximized the preorder window, getting buzz buys before we even heard BMS. With CC, we're less than two years removed from her last album, she has a #1 smash but one that is not her usual sound (and is more GP-driven which is never a guarantee for albums sales), and has a much smaller preorder window. To her benefit, of course, is that she has a bigger streaming presence and curiosity listens (which I think will benefit her streams more than pure sales). So, while big sales aren't out of the question, I don't think it's as much of a given as some of y'all seem to be anticipating. FYI, I WANT her to do the big numbers some of y'all are throwing out. I'm just...cautious. I'll have way less doubt if she goes all out with more variants, bonus tracks ala Taylor, retail store exclusives (Amazon, Target etc). Like, in her own way, she has to... work for it. Reveal hidden contents Seeing the big predictions and the reasons why now makes all the pushback on the preorder debate make a bit more sense to me lol. A lot of y'all expect big sales "because" she's Beyonce and "always" sells a certain amount. I guess my issue with that is that she has typically had to do all the things necessary to make that happen (outside of ST and Lemonade, which themselves had their own unique hype drivers with the surprise release and visual elements). Beyond that yesteryear Bey did all that promo and Ren Bey played the preorder/variants game well and arguably better than what we're seeing now. Another thing to factor in: Cowboy Carter will attract more straight listeners and those who dont **** with "gay" music Also Ren Bey didnt play it better because she had not enough physical copies good to go. Now, the stock is bigger, so obviously itll take more time to sell out. However once it's sold out, it in fact sold more than Ren Edited March 16 by Kristie Kuwa
Burn Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Yall. Are we making a pact to not listen to the leak (if it happens)? 2
Kristie Kuwa Posted March 16 Posted March 16 6 minutes ago, Burn said: Yall. Are we making a pact to not listen to the leak (if it happens)? Seeing how that went last time, these heaux are not to be trusted, lets just say that 2
luxurious Posted March 16 Posted March 16 I’m hoping for a 50m+ debut on global Spotify but what I really want is stronger stability similar to SOS or eternal sunshine (so far). the fact that it’s coming out on Easter weekend basically destroys that hope though lol I need her team to not drop the ball when it comes to promoting the right post album single in a timely manner (remember summer renaissance getting the playlisting alien superstar deserved) 3 1
Devin Posted March 16 Posted March 16 act ii: First Week Predictions 232K - satellites™ 275K - sillycilla 300K - Armani?, Cbreezy, Jai, futuresuperstar2023 305K - PrettyHurts 315K - QueenB 320K - Starshine 330K - Lovett 335K - trainsskyscrapers 345K - Burn, luxurious, suneclipse121 350K - Massive_Teardrop, Beyle Street, ReneighIsHere 365K - Hallad173, Jon Snow, Aristotle 366K - kimberly 370K - Erotica 375K - Lose My Breath, YellowRibbon 385K - cuteboyzay 388K - benyonce 397K - Slamless 400K - Devin, QueenDiva, Havoc, SoundsandSongs, Punch, Mr. Specialist, Bey’Knight 401K - Redporus 404K - ShouldersSideways 410K - ToraeGilt 412K - Kristie Kuwa 415K - Kalmanta 420K - SashaDevachelli 440K - V$ 444K - Crayzik 450K - MrPiggyMoka, gisellecarter4, Space&Time 475K - cloudbusting 515K - Blue Rose 540K - PrudenceHCharmed 550K - Chris everyone so close this is more exciting than when we did Renaissance. 1
Kingdom Posted March 16 Posted March 16 55 minutes ago, Cbreezy said: Thank you for this because it contextualizes a lot. I'm seeing a lot of feelings-based predictions, but this is data and data is hard to counter. There's been a few "she's gonna do at least 400k because she's Beyonce"..."she's an album artist"..."she has a #1 smash single"...etc. That all DOES factor in, but I'm not sure if it's to the extent y'all think it will. With Ren, she had the hype of it being her first solo album in 6 years and she maximized the preorder window, getting buzz buys before we even heard BMS. With CC, we're less than two years removed from her last album, she has a #1 smash but one that is not her usual sound (and is more GP-driven which is never a guarantee for albums sales), and has a much smaller preorder window. To her benefit, of course, is that she has a bigger streaming presence and curiosity listens (which I think will benefit her streams more than pure sales). So, while big sales aren't out of the question, I don't think it's as much of a given as some of y'all seem to be anticipating. FYI, I WANT her to do the big numbers some of y'all are throwing out. I'm just...cautious. I'll have way less doubt if she goes all out with more variants, bonus tracks ala Taylor, retail store exclusives (Amazon, Target etc). Like, in her own way, she has to... work for it. Hide contents Seeing the big predictions and the reasons why now makes all the pushback on the preorder debate make a bit more sense to me lol. A lot of y'all expect big sales "because" she's Beyonce and "always" sells a certain amount. I guess my issue with that is that she has typically had to do all the things necessary to make that happen (outside of ST and Lemonade, which themselves had their own unique hype drivers with the surprise release and visual elements). Beyond that yesteryear Bey did all that promo and Ren Bey played the preorder/variants game well and arguably better than what we're seeing now. so what exactly is your prediction?
Blue Rose Posted March 16 Posted March 16 is she really going to let the Cowboy Crazy limited edition collect dust in the warehouse?
Lose My Breath Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) 1 hour ago, Cbreezy said: Thank you for this because it contextualizes a lot. I'm seeing a lot of feelings-based predictions, but this is data and data is hard to counter. There's been a few "she's gonna do at least 400k because she's Beyonce"..."she's an album artist"..."she has a #1 smash single"...etc. That all DOES factor in, but I'm not sure if it's to the extent y'all think it will. With Ren, she had the hype of it being her first solo album in 6 years and she maximized the preorder window, getting buzz buys before we even heard BMS. With CC, we're less than two years removed from her last album, she has a #1 smash but one that is not her usual sound (and is more GP-driven which is never a guarantee for albums sales), and has a much smaller preorder window. To her benefit, of course, is that she has a bigger streaming presence and curiosity listens (which I think will benefit her streams more than pure sales). So, while big sales aren't out of the question, I don't think it's as much of a given as some of y'all seem to be anticipating. FYI, I WANT her to do the big numbers some of y'all are throwing out. I'm just...cautious. I'll have way less doubt if she goes all out with more variants, bonus tracks ala Taylor, retail store exclusives (Amazon, Target etc). Like, in her own way, she has to... work for it. Reveal hidden contents Seeing the big predictions and the reasons why now makes all the pushback on the preorder debate make a bit more sense to me lol. A lot of y'all expect big sales "because" she's Beyonce and "always" sells a certain amount. I guess my issue with that is that she has typically had to do all the things necessary to make that happen (outside of ST and Lemonade, which themselves had their own unique hype drivers with the surprise release and visual elements). Beyond that yesteryear Bey did all that promo and Ren Bey played the preorder/variants game well and arguably better than what we're seeing now. Yeah, but there are way more physicals available this time on her website. IF the realistic numbers are true for the vinyls (white 20k, red 25k, blue 30k, black 50k), then she's sold 37k vinyls in the US/Canada, more then entirety of what was available last time world wide. Available Blue: 17,544 Red: 13,640 White: 12,012 Black: 44,474 So if the total was 125k available, she has sold 37,330 vinyls. The boxes I can't figure out, I'm not sure what they started at, and I feel like they could've added stock. I'm assuming that each shirt size had a different quantity, because the smalls are almost sold out, the black box only has 350 left, and the large boxes are around 7-8k each. Europe her vinyls are almost sold out Edited March 16 by Lose My Breath 1 1
Devin Posted March 16 Posted March 16 act ii: First Week Predictions 232K - satellites™ 250K - Matangi 275K - sillycilla 300K - Armani?, Cbreezy, Jai, futuresuperstar2023 305K - PrettyHurts 315K - QueenB 320K - Starshine 330K - Lovett 335K - trainsskyscrapers 345K - Burn, luxurious, suneclipse121 350K - Massive_Teardrop, Beyle Street, ReneighIsHere 365K - Hallad173, Jon Snow, Aristotle 366K - kimberly 370K - Erotica 375K - Lose My Breath, YellowRibbon 385K - cuteboyzay 388K - benyonce 397K - Slamless 400K - Devin, QueenDiva, Havoc, SoundsandSongs, Punch, Mr. Specialist, Bey’Knight 401K - Redporus 404K - ShouldersSideways 410K - ToraeGilt 412K - Kristie Kuwa 415K - Kalmanta 420K - SashaDevachelli 440K - V$ 444K - Crayzik 450K - MrPiggyMoka, gisellecarter4, Space&Time 475K - cloudbusting 515K - Blue Rose 540K - PrudenceHCharmed 550K - Chris 1
Lose My Breath Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 minute ago, Devin said: after Renaissance she should have more vinyls in Europe. She definitely does, and they're almost sold out (mainland). I'm not sure about the UK though 1
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