charts discussion Final predictions (12/16): Brenda #1, 14pts lead over Mariah

[Virtual_Insanity]

Just now, 45seconds said:

It still doesn’t matter. A lot of songs would have been monster hot 100 smashes if they’d have been allowed to chart before rule changes.

 

What people find especially funny is how complacent Mariah and her fans got when it came to Christmas. Trying to trademark Queen of Christmas kind of solidified that. So a bit of humble pie was due. 

This was the turning point in my opinion. Despite a few TV hosts and talk show personalities piggybacking on Mariah and making a point of calling her this, her trademark thing was a step too far, and did not sit well with the industry as a whole. Mariah also publicly attacked Spotify and partnered with a rival service for some random xmas soundtrak album that no one even streamed - which was not clever. Don't bite the hand that feeds you Mimi. 

[stevyy]

18 minutes ago, 45seconds said:

This is not true. Brenda has been closing in on Mariah for years. To try and claim Mariah is organic (with all the cheesy option) is laughable. If anything this proves how inorganic it is. Being removed as the number 1 song on Spotify for Christmas causes her to crater shows that she needed that playlisting. 

How did she crater? She has the #1 song in the world. #2 on US Spotify despite being taken off and re-added, but lower than before... did just that... make her drop to #2. Other songs would have dropped off. 

[suburbannature]

Just now, 45seconds said:

You’re in here fighting for your life 

 

Mariah Carey is the only person promoting her Christmas jingle. And now that an old lady releases like the most basic promo she’s defeated. Like that should tell you how negligent her dominance over Christmas was. And now it’s over. 

And again, reality doesn’t match despite your desire to troll.

 

AIWFCIY dominated the 2000s Billboard Recurrent chart each December with a huge gap over the other Xmas songs. It was the #1 digital and radio song in December 2005 and had points to be top three on Hot 100 if allowed to chart. The song was eleven years old and Mariah was still not doing anything with the song. Globally, it had already sold upwards of 15 million pure units and was one of the biggest Western songs of all time in Japan (certified Million by the mid-90s). You say that the song is playlist-dependent and yet it led 57/62 weeks on the Billboard holiday chart including the 5 years before the streaming era.

 

It’s “over” yet she’s amassed 12 weeks at #1 and spent 30 years ahead of the pack, has by far the largest song in units, continues to lead in most platforms, and continues to destroy in a global level. If that’s being over then I fear for your faves.

[Virtual_Insanity]

1 minute ago, stevyy said:

How did she crater? She has the #1 song in the world. #2 on US Spotify despite being taken off and re-added, but lower than before... did just that... make her drop to #2. Other songs would have dropped off. 

She wasn't taken off. She was not on that playlist before - she was in fact added to it. 

[stevyy]

7 minutes ago, 45seconds said:

You’re in here fighting for your life 

 

Mariah Carey is the only person promoting her Christmas jingle. And now that an old lady releases like the most basic promo she’s defeated. Like that should tell you how negligent her dominance over Christmas was. And now it’s over. 

having your competition taken off playlists is not that minor. It's basically charts fraud. But forgiveness is in my heart. The Lord will judge and we will merely observe and pray for whatever outcome was worth the hassle. 

[Virtual_Insanity]

1 minute ago, suburbannature said:

And again, reality doesn’t match despite your desire to troll.

 

AIWFCIY dominated the 2000s Billboard Recurrent chart each December with a huge gap over the other Xmas songs. It was the #1 digital and radio song in December 2005 and had points to be top three on Hot 100 if allowed to chart. The song was eleven years old and Mariah was still not doing anything with the song. Globally, it had already sold upwards of 15 million pure units and was one of the biggest Western songs of all time in Japan (certified Million by the mid-90s). You say that the song is playlist-dependent and yet it led 57/62 weeks on the Billboard holiday chart including the 5 years before the streaming era.

 

It’s “over” yet she’s amassed 12 weeks at #1 and spent 30 years ahead of the pack, has by far the largest song in units, continues to lead in most platforms, and continues to destroy in a global level. If that’s being over then I fear for your faves.

None of this has anything to do with next mondays hot 100 though. 

 

I don't think anyone is questioning the global appeal of ALL. 

[OnlyManInTheWorld]

32 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

Mariah is added to more user-created playlist because she’s exponentially bigger globally.

 

He is correct about the popular curated playlists. Mariah was entirely taken off of “Christmas is Coming” (1 mil likes) for the entire tracking week then added back at #8 yesterday. Mariah was also demoted on Christmas Hits which even caters to a global audience. And of course Brenda benefits greatly from the Christmas Classics playlist that Mariah is excluded from (they curiously have made the criteria for songs through 50s-80s but changed that again this week to allow more decades).

 

Some think it could be related to Mariah’s Apple Music movie deal but that’s just speculation. 

Ok, but how can the biggest Christmas song ever be excluded from the Christmas playlists? It makes no sense

[suburbannature]

Just now, Virtual_Insanity said:

None of this has anything to do with next mondays hot 100 though. 

 

I don't think anyone is questioning the global appeal of ALL. 

Are you not aware that Billboard recurrent and holiday charts are US charts? 
 

 

[suburbannature]

1 minute ago, OnlyManInTheWorld said:

Ok, but how can the biggest Christmas song ever be excluded from the Christmas playlists? It makes no sense

Right.

[stevyy]

1 minute ago, OnlyManInTheWorld said:

Ok, but how can the biggest Christmas song ever be excluded from the Christmas playlists? It makes no sense

It's what Brenda's team paid for. But I have forgiveness in my heart. I am rooting for MIss Lee and cannot wait to see her claim the #1 position. She's worked for it. 

[45seconds]

5 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

And again, reality doesn’t match despite your desire to troll.

 

AIWFCIY dominated the 2000s Billboard Recurrent chart each December with a huge gap over the other Xmas songs. It was the #1 digital and radio song in December 2005 and had points to be top three on Hot 100 if allowed to chart. The song was eleven years old and Mariah was still not doing anything with the song. Globally, it had already sold upwards of 15 million pure units and was one of the biggest Western songs of all time in Japan (certified Million by the mid-90s). You say that the song is playlist-dependent and yet it led 57/62 weeks on the Billboard holiday chart including the 5 years before the streaming era.

 

It’s “over” yet she’s amassed 12 weeks at #1 and spent 30 years ahead of the pack, has by far the largest song in units, continues to lead in most platforms, and continues to destroy in a global level. If that’s being over then I fear for your faves.

She did all of that and now it’s OVER. There is no automatic assumption that she will be number 1. 

[stevyy]

10 minutes ago, Virtual_Insanity said:

This was the turning point in my opinion. Despite a few TV hosts and talk show personalities piggybacking on Mariah and making a point of calling her this, her trademark thing was a step too far, and did not sit well with the industry as a whole. Mariah also publicly attacked Spotify and partnered with a rival service for some random xmas soundtrak album that no one even streamed - which was not clever. Don't bite the hand that feeds you Mimi. 

The album - which was never released physically - is literally called Mariah Carey's Magical Christmas Special Soundtrack and served re-recordings of her known material, whole adding 1 new song. 

 

The funny thing is, it's re-charting annually in Ireland (of all places): <3

 

We love to see it.

[GraceRandolph]

16 minutes ago, Virtual_Insanity said:

Brenda pushed the song this year. Simple. She didn't fo a single thing prior to this year. Prior to this year the only artist who has actively promoted her Christmas material has been Mariah. 

A bunch of artists promote their Christmas music. What kind of lie is this?

[suburbannature]

6 minutes ago, Virtual_Insanity said:

She wasn't taken off. She was not on that playlist before - she was in fact added to it. 

Incorrect.

[stevyy]

Just now, 45seconds said:

She did all of that and now it’s OVER. There is no automatic assumption that she will be number 1. 

the latter part is true. The first part, i'm not sure what you mean. Like the domination is over? 

 

Maybe on some charts where she may not reach #1 automatically anymore... but... on overall performance... the song is pretty dominating. 

 

It even had more units sold last week than Brenda despite maybe only coming in at #2. (because Mariah sold more downloads, but they are not worth as much anymore). 

 

Tragique when literal sales are not the deciding factor anymore. Well, maybe this will be one of those rare instances in which the lesser selling /performing song will grab the #1. We've seen this many times in the UK due to ACR. 

 

 

[WildAmerican]

asdfgh ppl spending their whole day in here 

[brianc33710]

45 minutes ago, stevyy said:

The album - which was never released physically - is literally called Mariah Carey's Magical Christmas Special Soundtrack and served re-recordings of her known material, whole adding 1 new song. 

 

The funny thing is, it's re-charting annually in Ireland (of all places): <3

 

We love to see it.

Did she release & promote this album on Apple Music?

[PoisonPill]

2 hours ago, stevyy said:

It's what Brenda's team paid for. But I have forgiveness in my heart. I am rooting for MIss Lee and cannot wait to see her claim the #1 position. She's worked for it. 

Do you have any evidence of this alleged paid scheme? Do we even know if Miss Brenda has a team who can orchestrate such things?  

[Alexz]

4 hours ago, Virtual_Insanity said:

We both know the official charts are the ones that count. No one really cares about those component things. 

I'd say actually nobody cares about the chart and many people think Brenda has been #1 before because she has topped Spotify.

[spree]

Macauley Caulkin being in the news with his Hollywood star and the cast of Home Alone surrounding him I'm sure is helping RAACT also.  And its the #1 Xmas movie, too.  It's not all just Spotify and YouTube, lol. 

[brianc33710]

47 minutes ago, spree said:

Macauley Caulkin being in the news with his Hollywood star and the cast of Home Alone surrounding him I'm sure is helping RAACT also.  And its the #1 Xmas movie, too.  It's not all just Spotify and YouTube, lol. 

That's correct! RATCT got its 1st reboot in '90s Home Alone. If you've listened to Brenda's interviews this week she apparently had no idea they were using RATCT in HA!

[ClashAndBurn]

Tbh, if the Mean Girls musical were coming out in December, it might have been possible for Jingle Bell Rock to also go #1 (assuming the talent show scene was intact)  and potentially drop Mariah to #3. Too bad it's not gonna be out till January, that would've been iconic.

Edited December 4, 2023 by ClashAndBurn

[spree]

1 hour ago, brianc33710 said:

That's correct! RATCT got its 1st reboot in '90s Home Alone. If you've listened to Brenda's interviews this week she apparently had no idea they were using RATCT in HA!

Home Alone has made a huge impact for RAACT.   I don't think it would be as big without it.  But Home Alone being basically the perennial favorite really catapults it to the GP more than Youtube music or Deezer or any of the small stuff.  I say it gets a huge boost from the movie, and no one ever puts the pieces of the puzzle together.  All they think is Spotify and Apple Music, lol.  No one had any idea about Pandora until I mentioned it this week, and that was probably the deciding factor for this week's #1.

Edited December 4, 2023 by spree

[Credit]

 

not her tracking

[Flanders]

NGL it's refreshing to see someone else have the top xmas song for once. we need more NEW xmas pop classics though