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Final predictions (1/27): Ariana #1, leading by 17pts


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Posted

if she fails to debut at #1 after nearly discounted versions of the song in its first week, it's going to be so damn embarrassing... the fact that it's still not a secured #1 with all those version is already embarrassing:ahh:

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Posted

Billboard is probably not accounting for the physicals as it was shipped on Thursday... so that will give her an edge over Jack

Posted
4 minutes ago, Maroonx said:

Billboard is probably not accounting for the physicals as it was shipped on Thursday... so that will give her an edge over Jack

Presumably Billboard should know that needs to be accounted for though, right? 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

Presumably Billboard should know that needs to be accounted for though, right? 

Yes, but they wouldn't know exactly how many copies it will be added. I think their estimation is based on airplay/streaming/digital only (until the final tally is complete). Ari's physical will probably be 20-30K (as all formats were sold out in her store)

Posted
1 hour ago, BabyBenzz said:

if she fails to debut at #1 after nearly discounted versions of the song in its first week, it's going to be so damn embarrassing... the fact that it's still not a secured #1 with all those version is already embarrassing:ahh:

Gurl, it is ALREADY EMBARRASSING. LMAO.

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Posted

I hope she pulls through (even if I still don’t like the song), but it’s not looking good. :biblio:

Posted

The #1 is definitely not happening, hoping we get 10 weeks in the top 10 at least :duca:

Posted
9 minutes ago, Gerardo said:

The #1 is definitely not happening, hoping we get 10 weeks in the top 10 at least :duca:

idk what the ratio is between airplay and sales. Jack has a diff of 50M radio audience, but Ari has around 60K sales difference.

Also Ariana is likely to be #1 on streaming as well (the video views will boast her). So I think the #1 will be hers.

Posted
37 minutes ago, Gerardo said:

The #1 is definitely not happening, hoping we get 10 weeks in the top 10 at least :duca:

I'm not even sure 10 weeks in the Hot 100 is a given. I highly doubt it's going to even spend week 3 in the Top 10.

Posted
5 hours ago, Maroonx said:

Billboard is probably not accounting for the physicals as it was shipped on Thursday... so that will give her an edge over Jack

Physicals? For a single? In 2024? You’re shitting me. Billboard needs to get with the times and remove that **** from its charts 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Maroonx said:

idk what the ratio is between airplay and sales. Jack has a diff of 50M radio audience, but Ari has around 60K sales difference.

Also Ariana is likely to be #1 on streaming as well (the video views will boast her). So I think the #1 will be hers.

I’m not exactly sure but I think it’s 

60M radio audience = 100 points

1k sales = 1 point 

12.5M paid streams = 100 points

video/free streams is where I’m not sure, I think it’s like 10 points = 3.5M 

 

so Ariana has like 200 points from streaming, 50 from sales, and like 20 from radio 

Jack has around the same streaming (maybe a little less like 175), 8-10 points from sales but like 100 points from radio

Posted
49 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

I'm not even sure 10 weeks in the Hot 100 is a given. I highly doubt it's going to even spend week 3 in the Top 10.

That’s a stretch lol, even if it bombs horribly on the 3rd week she’ll have like 35M radio (60 points), 4-5k sales (4-5 points), and 10M paid streams (80 points), so like 145 points, enough to be #7, and this is being extremely negative 

Posted

How many times must you stream a song to contribute as many points as one “physical” purchase? 

Posted
4 minutes ago, family.guy123 said:

How many times must you stream a song to contribute as many points as one “physical” purchase? 

A few months ago it was, more or less:

 

1,000 sales = 1 point

125,000 streams = 1 point

 

So by buying a song you add the same points (0,001) as if you stream it 125 times.

 

Now the formula has changed slightly, so I don't know the exact current proportion.

Posted

The picture they used though :deadbanana4:

Posted

 

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Posted

ari :clap3:

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Posted

8 #1's between 2018-2024  :jonny6:

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Posted
10 hours ago, Ms. Togekiss said:

Your obsession with Cruel Summer needs to be studied :biblio:

Hi there! In the 3 short months I’ve been on this forum, I can’t help but notice  your never being, unrelenting, almost broken record-like behavior of voicing your for streaming supremacy and for billboard to doing away with sells or radio. 
 

In fact, you have inspired me so much that i have decided to write an E-mail to billboard on your behalf. 
 

let’s sit back and wait for what billboard has to say tomorrow! 

Posted

 

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Posted

 

Screaming. Oh well, at least we got a fun chart week and some people got their much needed dose of entertainment.

 

:ryan3:

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Kasix said:

Hi there! In the 3 short months I’ve been on this forum, I can’t help but notice  your never being, unrelenting, almost broken record-like behavior of voicing your for streaming supremacy and for billboard to doing away with sells or radio. 
 

In fact, you have inspired me so much that i have decided to write an E-mail to billboard on your behalf. 
 

let’s sit back and wait for what billboard has to say tomorrow! 

:rip::rip:

Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Kasix said:

Hi there! In the 3 short months I’ve been on this forum, I can’t help but notice  your never being, unrelenting, almost broken record-like behavior of voicing your for streaming supremacy and for billboard to doing away with sells or radio. 
 

In fact, you have inspired me so much that i have decided to write an E-mail to billboard on your behalf. 
 

let’s sit back and wait for what billboard has to say tomorrow! 

Unbelievable, billboard have replied under 5 minutes! If only they have this level of efficiency for their normal publishes! 
 

anyhow, let’s see what they have to say about our request! 

Spoiler

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Edited by Kasix
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Posted

Photo finished they say :rip:

Posted
6 minutes ago, Kasix said:

Unbelievable, billboard have replied under 5 minutes! If only they have this level of efficiency for their normal publishes! 
 

anyhow, let’s see what they have to say about our request! 

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:deadbanana2: :deadbanana2: :deadbanana2: 

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