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Final predictions (1/27): Ariana #1, leading by 17pts


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Posted
3 hours ago, Kasix said:

Judging how big a song is solely by total Weeks at #1 is even more obtuse. Blinding Lights only has 4 weeks on the top, is it not the biggest hit this decade?
 

Levitating never even hit #1, but is it not the biggest hit by a female artist this decade? 

 

That’s why Total weeks on chart and Total weeks at top 10 are also factors in measuring how big a song is.



7 Rings left the chart after 33 weeks.
TUN charted even shorter than that.
Meanwhile cruel summer is guaranteed to spend more than 33 weeks in the top 10 alone. So yes, cruel summer is definitely bigger than TUN and 7 rings.

While I believe that Blinding Lights is the biggest hit of the decade and Levitating is the biggest hit by a female artist, 2021 is over-represented on the all-time chart. There was a clear bump in longevity after UGC was removed in the chart, but the current all-time chart has 2020 weighed the same as 2019, and 2021 weighed more than both 2019 and 2020. We've got major inaccuracies on the all-time chart, like Mood being ranked ahead of Perfect and Sunflower. I'd be willing to bet the next all-time chart will have the multipliers smoothed out (with 2020, and especially 2021, weighed less), and BL will be ranked behind The Twist, and Levitating will be ranked somewhere around Circles/Heat Waves.

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Posted

 

Posted

I can't believe the race is still tight :rip: 

Posted

How does Ariana not have a clear lead by this point? :rip: 

Posted
2 hours ago, B-Luke said:

 

I don't think we should trust this account...

Posted

She was that desperate w/ all those remixes and still couldn't get a number 1 w/ that mid song?

 

Maybe leprechauns aren't so lucky anymore. 

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Posted

It looks awful for Ariana if the race is very tight. :rip: 

Posted

How is still a tight race with over 50k sales?  :deadbanana2:

 

That means Jack will still be #1 on Streaming Songs?

Posted

I don't know. The charts were so much better when songs got an 8-10 week rise to the top on radio then were dropped like a hot potato, and artists/fanbases didn't abuse sales tactics to overinflate song peaks or flat out manipulate the charts.

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Posted

How can it be a tight race even with the 50k pure sales? I know Jack has radio on his side but let's be real. :deadbanana4:

 

I'm sure she is predicted to be #1 with a relatively healthy lead and they are encouraging fans to purchase the song to fully secure the #1. 

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Green said:

How is still a tight race with over 50k sales?  :deadbanana2:

 

That means Jack will still be #1 on Streaming Songs?

If Jack is #1 on streaming songs, then he should be the #1 song on the Hot 100. Jack got screwed out of a week at #1 on its debut when CS was #10 on streaming songs.

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Posted

Jack makes it look so effortlessly, she'll get it though, if not this week another one.

Posted
1 hour ago, Green said:

How is still a tight race with over 50k sales?  :deadbanana2:

 

That means Jack will still be #1 on Streaming Songs?

She's leading on Spotify but he's leading on AM. YT should give her the edge since she's was ahead most of the week.

Posted

It's really incredible that after all the efforts she's still fighting for that #1. She's not on her peak anymore. But what looks worse is that second week. I can't think anything that her team can do to help that song in the next week.

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Posted

she keeps releasing remixes to increase the pure sales and the streams just keep free falling lmao. it's at #19 on Apple Music below last night and FTCU... 

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Posted

With 436 remixes? :deadbanana2:

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Posted

It would be extremely surprising if a blonde white woman doesn't manage to debut at #1 despite remixes

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Posted
4 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

I don't know. The charts were so much better when songs got an 8-10 week rise to the top on radio then were dropped like a hot potato, and artists/fanbases didn't abuse sales tactics to overinflate song peaks or flat out manipulate the charts.

I agree. I looked at those chart videos on YouTube, and many times it seemed when they were at position #2, or #3, they would have a "final push" and add in a discount or a remix along with a public performance(on TV or something) for that week during the 2008 - 2013 period; but it felt impressive because mostly all songs needed to be bought whereas nowadays songs are rarely bought so it seems to be the major avenue to get an "easier push".

The funniest part was seeing how fast they abandon the song the moment it falls down one chart position if it hit the top 10, and how quickly they release the next single once the song hits #2-5 on the Hot 100 while doing the "final push" to #1 of the previous single. 

Today seems more unpredictable as it seems it is mostly females(the only male I can think who does this is Justin) who can do these sales tactics with obsesive fans(or dedicated fans). 

 

I truly wonder if "Chained to the Rythm" by Katy Perry would have gone #1 with these tactics considering how big she was during Prism.

 

Posted

The Jack song is trash and basic af US taste is in the pits per usual.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Green said:

How is still a tight race with over 50k sales?  :deadbanana2:

 

That means Jack will still be #1 on Streaming Songs?

I think redrum #1, jack #2 and ariana #3

Posted
5 hours ago, Aaron said:

How does Ariana not have a clear lead by this point? :rip: 

Right, after all the tricks, it should be a lock at #1

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Posted (edited)

Get that #1 Ari. 

Swifties n Miley fans being nasty asf all week lord I want ariana to get this #1 :flame:

Eta: #1 next week stay MAD

Edited by Harsh2256
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Posted

More remixes are needed

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Posted

Remember when Drake dropped his new album during Anti-Hero's 3rd or 4th week on the chart and his lead was projected to go #1 with 400+ points? Then Taylor dropped a few remixes at the 11th hour and snatched #1 with 700+ points? :ryan3:

 

 

 

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