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Final predictions (1/27): Ariana #1, leading by 17pts


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Posted

Ariana Grande, “Yes, And?” (Republic): The house-influenced song, released as the lead single from her upcoming Eternal Sunshine album, was easily the most-anticipated drop of the new year thus far, and came with a new dramatically staged and intricately choreographed music video, as well as instant radio support. But the streams for it, while considerable – it still rests at No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart, though it’s fallen significantly lower on other daily DSP chartsare not so overwhelming that it is likely to blow past Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me,” which spends its third frame atop the Hot 100 this week. 

 

To help get the new song over the top, Grande and her team have also released edited, extended, sped-up, slowed-down, a cappella and instrumental mixes of “Yes, And?” — all of which, as of writing, are currently populating the top 10 of iTunes’ real-time sales chart. The extra sales boost might be enough to make up the difference, but it will likely be something of a photo finish between it and “Lovin,” making for our first real chart suspense atop the Hot 100 of 2024.  

 

Jack Harlow, “Lovin on Me” (Genaration Now/Atlantic): For its part, Harlow’s crossover banger has hardly been letting up as the new year has unfolded. “Lovin” remains atop the Streaming Songs chart this week, while dropping just one spot to No. 2 on Digital Song Sales, and jumping 5-2 on Radio Songs. As long as its radio growth continues to offset its inevitable slippage in streams and sales, “Lovin” should remain a No. 1 contender for the near future – and it’s worth noting that Harlow has yet to even release an official remix or deliver a late night or awards show performance of the song, meaning he has still has cards to play if he ever wants to give the song’s momentum another adrenaline shot.  

 

https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/ariana-grande-yes-and-hot-100-number-one-debut-1235584424/

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Posted
47 minutes ago, =NEX= said:

Remember when Drake dropped his new album during Anti-Hero's 3rd or 4th week on the chart and his lead was projected to go #1 with 400+ points? Then Taylor dropped a few remixes at the 11th hour and snatched #1 with 700+ points? :ryan3:

 

 

 

Of course. Almost all of Anti-Hero’s weeks at #1 were because of gimmicks and remixes.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, spree said:

Of course. Almost all of Anti-Hero’s weeks at #1 were because of gimmicks and remixes.

In your dreams I bet

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Posted

Ariana needs to release more remixes to secure the #1. She’ll get dragged but at least she’ll get dragged and be #1

Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Klein said:

How can it be a tight race even with the 50k pure sales? I know Jack has radio on his side but let's be real. :deadbanana4:

 

I'm sure she is predicted to be #1 with a relatively healthy lead and they are encouraging fans to purchase the song to fully secure the #1. 

She is at 19th place on AM while jack is like 4th only behind 21 savage’s new songs. 
 

on Spotify she is literally doing the same amount of stream as jack.

 

on Amazon music she is at 40th place. 
 

meanwhile jack is approaching 70m radio audience. 
 

Not to mention billboard will probably filter out a few thousand sales. 
 

so yeah it ain’t looking too good for her so far. 

Edited by Kasix
Posted
18 minutes ago, spree said:

Of course. Almost all of Anti-Hero’s weeks at #1 were because of gimmicks and remixes.

Only that 1 week where she would have naturally missed #1. Would have still been a 7 week #1 without it. And a 10+ weeks at #1 if it wasn't for Xmas 

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Posted

if this pulls a Problem and gets stuck at #2 behind a white rapper for weeks :deadbanana:

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Posted
18 minutes ago, naval23 said:

if this pulls a Problem and gets stuck at #2 behind a white rapper for weeks :deadbanana:

She'd still have a chance on the album release week unless something else from the album goes #1 but yeah, if it misses this week, it's likely getting blocked.

Posted

This is getting messy!!

 

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Posted

it’s not surprising. song was good but not lead single comeback material tbh 

Posted
40 minutes ago, spree said:

Of course. Almost all of Anti-Hero’s weeks at #1 were because of gimmicks and remixes.

Imagine your fave is flopping so hard that you resort to making up false memories and fake version of reality to feel better. that’s some sad behavior right there. 

 

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Posted

let’s get this #1 :jonny6::jonny6::jonny6: 

Posted

It’s not going number 1. The numbers don’t add up. Just prepare yourselves.

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Posted (edited)

saying she’s “flopping so hard” meanwhile the song is the most played in the world for five consecutive days (and pulling 7M+ streams on all of them) is crazy 

Edited by kindararenext
Posted

can this Jack Harlow please go back to being a flop

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, =NEX= said:

Remember when Drake dropped his new album during Anti-Hero's 3rd or 4th week on the chart and his lead was projected to go #1 with 400+ points? Then Taylor dropped a few remixes at the 11th hour and snatched #1 with 700+ points? :ryan3:

 

 

 

Yeah that’s the funny thing about all of this. when Taylor and Drake was havin that 550+ points battle, that was literally the clash of titans, Godzilla vs King Kong. Two of the biggest stars duking it out at the most competitive season of music in Q4.
 

and then you have this minor league, B-list contest where their struggle is a get measly 260 points in the middle of freakin January - the driest, deadest month of music where everything on the charts were leftovers from last year. 


To to put things into proper perspective, 260 points is so low that Drake and Taylor’s 9th album track was higher than that.

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but somehow they still don’t have the mindfulness to realize how stupid they look to compare them two. 

Edited by Kasix
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Posted

But I mean, even if it goes #1, shouldn't this be much stronger? Like, barely doing 260 points is kind of absurd. 

Posted (edited)

So, apparently now releasing remixes and multiple versions is only acceptable and okay if it's AFTER the first week and only if it's to get multiple weeks at #1?

 

Got it. :coffee2:

 

Glad to know we add these qualifiers after the fact when it benefits certain artists  :bloo:

 

Because a remix and alternative version is not actually a remix and alternative version if it's after release week. And it doesn't count if it's only 6 instead of 9 or 10. :biggrin:

Edited by dawnettakins
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Posted
1 hour ago, Kasix said:

Not to mention billboard will probably filter out a few thousand sales. 

No they won't, they can't filter out sales without justifying it. I haven't seen any instance where they've done that.

 

she has a healthy lead over Jack and will likely at this point have a 10% lead.

Posted

Jack needs to do something!

Posted

I hope Ari ekes it out. C’mon one more trick :clap3:

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Posted

Not the Swifties and Arianators fight :bibliahh:

Posted

the only people who care about the numerous different versions are the unemployed and chronically online; next week the only thing the average person will see is that ariana has the number 1 song in the country. 250 points or 500, 1 version or 10, she still won :suburban:

 

 

 

 

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