news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[woohoo]

24 minutes ago, Communion said:

Also, I'm sorry, but:

 

Shot - 

Chaser -

Shot - 

Chaser - 

Being lectured about what direction the Dems should go in from people in counties where their parents and their parents' parents and their parents' grandparents have voted Republican, despite them having no clue how to actually get Democrats to win is... . If you live in a Congressional district that has been red since your birth, you genuinely would be better off spending your time - if this passionate about elections - volunteering for local Dems instead of spiraling about Biden when polled against Trump.

 

This of course isn't a slight against those who live in red states, but to live in a red state *AND* feel as though the problem with modern politics is progressives being too left-wing...? To see people who have clearly internalized - instead of rejected via self re-education - the ideals of the Republicans around them then claim *I* as a leftist "support Trump" when Biden already got 2 votes out of me, let alone my first ever vote straight out of high school over a decade ago? 

 

Ironically this all tying back to how polarization doesn't transcend to all levels of government. I'm more than glad as someone who supports bodily autonomy that the women of Alabama HD-10 voted in someone pro-abortion. You can enjoy that and recognize the micros of such without losing an understanding of the macros that face Biden. And screaming at people that they're "salty supporters of Hamas terrorists" or "hateful leftists flushing the country down the toilet with purity tests no one should take seriously" won't make those challenges vanish.

My problem isn't with people being too far left my problem is with YOU and your immaturity. And I don't take like three of you seriously on here because of how you act point blank. And I stand by what I said, hamas attack is what set all of the current destruction in motion. They fired the first shot and Israel took it way too far. I see both being in the wrong and need to stop slaughtering people over land and religion. 

[Communion]

26 minutes ago, woohoo said:

Doug Jones ran against a pedophile in 2017, I'd hope he'd win by that margin. 

And Donald Trump is a convicted rapist neo-nazi killing people's grandma's. Yet Biden could only somehow come up 40,000 votes over him where it mattered.

 

Again, you are simply not in-line with facts. Even someone like Bloo had to correct you elsewhere when you claimed youth turnout is "always low" when it was the highest it was in 2020 in decades and is quite literally one of the reasons attributed to his win. Youth turnout he got explicitly for making promises to move to the left - at odds now with his harsh dash to the right. You're literally rejecting basic realities. 

 

Like this:

26 minutes ago, woohoo said:

2022 democrats were suppose to get destroyed and they didn't.

You're literally just making things up out of thin air. "Dems were supposed to get destroyed"? According to whom?

The polls never reflected a red wave and were largely accurate in the successes that Democrats had.

Democrats like Clinton were literally running on the importance of victories in 2016 *due to everyone knowing how pro-Dem the 2022 Senate map was*.

 

It's just the same made-up nonsense over and over.

"Polls have largely not been right for years and now mean nothing!". That's literally not true.

"Biden doesn't have to listen to young people cause they don't vote". Historic high turnout is why he won in 2020. 

"Leftists hate Biden yet his leadership stopped the 2022 red wave from occurring!". Polls literally showed a red wave wasn't coming despite Biden's dwindling popularity and it was right-wing and corporate pundits doubting these polls that showed Dems performing as expected (minus in deep-red states like OH & FL, where Dems actually under-performed polls) who ended up with egg on their face. 

 

There is literally documented divergence between what gains Biden has gotten from polarization and nearly every other Dem. The only exception being NYS Dems - who quite literally, just like Biden, adopted a shift rightward, only to get molly-whopped in 2022.

 

Again, you have every right to disagree with whatever feelings bring people to make Biden vs Trump a tight-race, but to flat out reject the reality that this is a tight race due to Biden's weaknesses because... you don't like polls (?) means there's nothing to discuss. You're just shouting? 

Edited March 28 by Communion

[woohoo]

10 minutes ago, Communion said:

And Donald Trump is a convicted rapist neo-nazi killing people's grandma's. Yet Biden could only somehow come up 40,000 votes over him where it mattered.

 

Again, you are simply not in-line with facts. Even someone like Bloo had to correct you elsewhere when you claimed youth turnout is "always low" when it was the highest it was in 2020 in decades and is quite literally one of the reasons attributed to his win. Youth turnout he got explicitly for making promises to move to the left - at odds now with his harsh dash to the right. You're literally rejecting basic realities. 

 

Like this:

You're literally just making things up out of thin air. "Dems were supposed to get destroyed"? According to whom?

The polls never reflected a red wave and were largely accurate in the successes that Democrats had.

Democrats like Clinton were literally running on the importance of victories in 2016 *due to everyone knowing how pro-Dem the 2022 Senate map was*.

 

It's just the same made-up nonsense over and over.

"Polls have largely not been right for years and now mean nothing!". That's literally not true.

"Biden doesn't have to listen to young people cause they don't vote". Historic high turnout is why he won in 2020. 

"Leftists hate Biden yet his leadership stopped the 2022 red wave from occurring!". Polls literally showed a red wave wasn't coming and it was right-wing (and corporate) pundits doubting these polls that showed Dems performing as expected (minus in deep-red states, where they under-performed) who ended up with egg on their face.

One year they show up, and then it's back to normal life as usual until November 2024. If we'd bother to show up in the primaries Biden wouldn't be the nominee. But here we are. It's also alarming that people my age don't know that you can't gerrymander a governor or federal senate race but that's a totally different conversation. Sidenote, it pisses me off when we try to get young people to the polls and then come Election Day it's all middle aged and old people. I might see 30-50 people under 30 show up. Anecdotal but that's what I see year after year. 

 

Again, you ignore the fact that polls take into account likely voters and this is the first presidential race post roe where I know I'm not the only one encountering many first time voters because of roe. I never said polls were useless but this election has that outside factor of Roe voters. Trump could be also be convicted of a felony which will turn independents on the fence away. There's too many unknowns at this point to say these polls are what's gonna go down in November. 
 

 I literally said it's gonna be a tight race but with Biden getting the edge because of roe and first time women voters and you are acting like I think it's gonna be a blowout and I am a Biden worshiper. I know he is a weak candidate just off of the age argument alone, as is Trump. The best he's gonna do is hold the blue wall of MI, PA, and WI and maybe keep Arizona when it's all said and done. 
 

 

[Communion]

30 minutes ago, woohoo said:

If we'd bother to show up in the primaries Biden wouldn't be the nominee.

Bernie Sanders literally won multiple of the first contests and the race only changed after Biden won one of the oldest (and most Republican) states in the country.

We're just going in circles at this point.

 

You say in the same breath that polls for 2024 aren't accurate cause the circumstances are unique but also that results from 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 - none of which reflect the president - somehow all do actually represent something positive for Biden. 

 

There's really nothing much else to say. You posted the below:

8 hours ago, woohoo said:

A district in Alabama trump won by 5-8 points in 2020 flipped blue by 25 points yesterday. IN ALABAMA. I wouldn't be so sure or count on the polls. 

And the sentiment of your post is factually wrong. 

 

I honestly don't even care if you decide to reject the entire field of political science. Go ahead! Think magic rocks will decide 2024! I don't care!

But this sudden liberal backlash to polling because it's going good for everyone but Biden leads to dubbing people who recognize how data science works as "hoping Trump wins" and that's how this cyclical conversations unfold. You call me a Trump supporter for knowing 49% is greater than 47%, I call you illiterate in response, and then you call me mean. Which is annoying given that you will be the first to poll any good poll for Biden. 

 

I'll just save this post for any time you quote a positive poll in the future! Ending this exchange here. Smooches! 

Edited March 28 by Communion

[ClashAndBurn]

I wonder how many resignations there will be after the Rafah invasion slaughters countless innocents and Genocide Joe continues shipping bombs to Israel regardless.

[Redstreak]

8 hours ago, Communion said:

Of course it does. The primary is over. Biden is the nominee. People criticizing Biden are asking he change his policy trajectory to improve his chances of winning the general. The people asking Biden to stop purposefully bleeding and alienating potential voters do not care if you vote for Biden nor are they trying to stop you.

 

You've only imagined this is the dynamic at hand because you've internalized whatever red state trauma you have, despite this attitude that the medium voter is an Alabamian or somehow the median voter should be assumed as the most conservative is in-effect nothing but the ratchet-effect to keep the country right-ward.

 

Biden's campaign should literally just be pin-pointing whatever policies poll well with the vast majority Dem voters. It's not rocket science to be aghast when he misses this.

Why would a candidate trying to win elections come out and say he's against a policy like M4A that 80% of Dem voters want? 

Firstly there were discussions of Biden clinching the nomination but dropping at the summer convention for someone else depending on how bad his polling got to and pushing from the party. As of now he's gaining momentum that he didn't really have two months ago so as of now that seems even more unlikely. But even through all of this I don't think you've ever said who you'd even want the nominate to be besides him. Bernie endorsed Biden, I'm pretty sure you think the squad are a bunch of hacks but you can correct me on that, anyone else from the progressive side of Congress don't really have the recognition, have you ever outlined a specific political strategy going forward outside of just telling everyone else why they're dumb? Like an actual specific candidate you'd even *want* to be the nominee?

[Redstreak]

7 hours ago, Communion said:

And Donald Trump is a convicted rapist neo-nazi killing people's grandma's. Yet Biden could only somehow come up 40,000 votes over him where it mattered.

 

Again, you are simply not in-line with facts. Even someone like Bloo had to correct you elsewhere when you claimed youth turnout is "always low" when it was the highest it was in 2020 in decades and is quite literally one of the reasons attributed to his win. Youth turnout he got explicitly for making promises to move to the left - at odds now with his harsh dash to the right. You're literally rejecting basic realities. 

 

Like this:

You're literally just making things up out of thin air. "Dems were supposed to get destroyed"? According to whom?

The polls never reflected a red wave and were largely accurate in the successes that Democrats had.

Democrats like Clinton were literally running on the importance of victories in 2016 *due to everyone knowing how pro-Dem the 2022 Senate map was*.

 

It's just the same made-up nonsense over and over.

"Polls have largely not been right for years and now mean nothing!". That's literally not true.

"Biden doesn't have to listen to young people cause they don't vote". Historic high turnout is why he won in 2020. 

"Leftists hate Biden yet his leadership stopped the 2022 red wave from occurring!". Polls literally showed a red wave wasn't coming despite Biden's dwindling popularity and it was right-wing and corporate pundits doubting these polls that showed Dems performing as expected (minus in deep-red states like OH & FL, where Dems actually under-performed polls) who ended up with egg on their face. 

 

There is literally documented divergence between what gains Biden has gotten from polarization and nearly every other Dem. The only exception being NYS Dems - who quite literally, just like Biden, adopted a shift rightward, only to get molly-whopped in 2022.

 

Again, you have every right to disagree with whatever feelings bring people to make Biden vs Trump a tight-race, but to flat out reject the reality that this is a tight race due to Biden's weaknesses because... you don't like polls (?) means there's nothing to discuss. You're just shouting? 

Dude you can't be serious, *a lot* of people discussed how the predicted red wave never materialized. You LOVE gaslighting and rewriting history and then acting like it's other people who don't know what they're talking about

[Communion]

22 minutes ago, Redstreak said:

 *a lot* of people discussed

At this point you're just emotionally reacting instead of reading what's written. 

 

Yes, pundits predicted a red wave.

Polls did not. 

 

Pundits even mimicked your rhetoric that polls must be off because Biden's approvals were collapsing yet this wasn't showing in Congressional races. 

 

I'm literally just one of dozens of people on here to point this out. 

 

 

Is someone like Bloo gaslighting you too?

 

All the Senate races in 2022 were accurately predicted in polls within the margin of error (with the biggest mistake Dems made in thinking it'd be easier to beat a 6 point polling deficit in Ohio than a 2 point deficit in Wisconsin and ******* over Mandela Barnes).

 

The only person who out-performed polls greater than the MOE was Fetterman, who ran a progressive campaign. In comparison, someone like Demings ran as a Top Cop in Florida and got demolished worse than even polls suggested she would. 

 

 

 

I really don't like begrudge you for not remembering or keeping up with the finite details of certain political events, especially when the media pundit class push a narrative that got it so wrong, but it's tiresome for some of you to continuallg lash out at people and claim they're pro-Trump just because you yourself are unfamiliar with historical fact. 

[Redstreak]

17 minutes ago, Communion said:

At this point you're just emotionally reacting instead of reading what's written. 

 

Yes, pundits predicted a red wave.

Polls did not. 

 

Pundits even mimicked your rhetoric that polls must be off because Biden's approvals were collapsing yet this wasn't showing in Congressional races. 

 

I'm literally just one of dozens of people on here to point this out. 

 

 

Is someone like Bloo gaslighting you too?

 

All the Senate races in 2022 were accurately predicted in polls within the margin of error (with the biggest mistake Dems made in thinking it'd be easier to beat a 6 point polling deficit in Ohio than a 2 point deficit in Wisconsin and ******* over Mandela Barnes).

 

The only person who out-performed polls greater than the MOE was Fetterman, who ran a progressive campaign. In comparison, someone like Demings ran as a Top Cop in Florida and got demolished worse than even polls suggested she would. 

 

 

 

I really don't like begrudge you for not remembering or keeping up with the finite details of certain political events, especially when the media pundit class push a narrative that got it so wrong, but it's tiresome for some of you to continuallg lash out at people and claim they're pro-Trump just because you yourself are unfamiliar with historical fact. 

?

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

[Communion]

7 minutes ago, Redstreak said:

?

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

At this point it's just anti-intellectualism. You're trying to defend the act of dismissing polls while revealing that you seemingly don't even know what a poll is, what an aggregate is, what a projection model is. 

 

538 was predicting a 1 in 2 chance that Republicans took the Senate by 1 seat, which would have required literally just winning a single race.

 

That's literally all their model shows.

 

And that sounds accurate given that most polls were showing many of the races to be toss-up's with - again - the eventual results for nearly all races being within the MOE.

 

The polls were largely accurate. Dems had a wide window to actually net 3 seats due to people like Mandrla Barnes and even Cheri Beasley being within MOE and yet instead funds were sent to people like Tim Ryan and Val Demmings, leading only Fetterman to pick up his seat as predicted AND out-perform polls thanks to an at-the-time progressive campaign. 

 

This is exhausting. It's one thing to be critical of data in that it needs to be understood on context - ex: whacky cross tabs meaning you don't focus too much on the details of such but can follow the top line of the poll -  but this rejection of data science just because polls haven't been in Biden's favor is Trumpian. 

[Redstreak]

3 minutes ago, Communion said:

At this point it's just anti-intellectualism. You're trying to defend the act of dismissing polls while revealing that you seemingly don't even know what a poll is, what an aggregate is, what a projection model is. 

 

538 was predicting a 1 in 2 chance that Republicans took the Senate by 1 seat, which would have required literally just winning a single race.

 

That's literally all their model shows.

 

And that sounds accurate given that most polls were showing many of the races to be toss-up's with - again - the eventual results for nearly all races being within the MOE.

 

The polls were largely accurate. Dems had a wide window to actually net 3 seats due to people like Mandrla Barnes and even Cheri Beasley being within MOE and yet instead funds were sent to people like Tim Ryan and Val Demmings, leading only Fetterman to pick up his seat as predicted AND out-perform polls thanks to an at-the-time progressive campaign. 

 

This is exhausting. It's one thing to be critical of data in that it needs to be understood on context - ex: whacky cross tabs meaning you don't focus too much on the details of such but can follow the top line of the poll -  but this rejection of data science just because polls haven't been in Biden's favor is Trumpian. 

Dude even your own post history has you discussing the threat of dems losing both the house and senate, along with a lot of genocide fetterman simping

[Communion]

1 minute ago, Redstreak said:

Dude even your own post history has you discussing the threat of dems losing both the house and senate, along with a lot of genocide fetterman simping

I really have to think you're barely 18 or something. It honestly feels like talking to a child or someone devoted to trolling. 

 

"You thought the GOP could have won the Senate!"

 

..literally yes, because "winning the senate" meant literally winning just one race. Warnock won a toss up race whose results was still in the MOE. An election he largely only won because of a left minute pivot leftward in rhetoric about student loans after months of centrism wasn't bleeding Walker's voters. 

 

I'm not sure what you're trying to argue at this point. Polls are somehow wrong but also right when you like them. There was no red wave but somehow polls predicting no clear safe state for Republicans meant the polls were claiming there'd be a red wave. 

 

This post is literally from September 2022. I'm literally being quoted by someone saying I'm too being optimistic when arguing that Dems will at least flip PA and nullify the risk of losing GA. 

 

 

"Likely scenario for Senate is looking like 51/49 (D+1) while best case is probably 52/48 (D+2)."

[Communion]

Also the "heheheh you liked Fetterman before he had a stroke and somehow the ghost of Reagan took over his body, I bet you regret that now, huh?" taunts don't work. 

 

Like...of course I regret it. 

 

Israel is one thing since you can argue he was clearly wishy washy before, but Fetterman went from cheering on DACA and referencing his undocumented wife as reasons for progressive immigration reform to advocating with the GOP to ban asylum. 

 

Like yes, Fetterman is a lesson that the Democratic Party simply cannot ever be an actual vessel for progressive change because it inherently corrupts any progressive in it. The former progressive you're trying to taunt leftists over is literally evidence that progressives should not see Dems as a reasonable option. You're quite literally making the argument to vote for left wing 3rd parties and abandon Democrats even down ballot. Thank you for thst. 

[GhostBox]

wow 😯 

[GhostBox]

 

[Chemist]

Yikes lol

 

 

[Espresso]

 

[Espresso]

 

[Gottasadae]

2 hours ago, GhostBox said:

 

I live in NY aka most expensive state, rent is still out of control but grocery prices are definitely back to normal (dozen of eggs - $3.00-6.00 regular-organic, fruits and veggies are down in prices, same with meat), regular gas - $3.10-3.50, same as it was during Trump years 

[GhostBox]

 

[Espresso]

 

[GhostBox]

 

[GhostBox]

4 minutes ago, Espresso said:

 

People aren't taking seriously how dangerous and divisive  a second term is gonna be.  That's not even taking in the revenge antics hes gonna do either. 

Edited March 28 by GhostBox

[GhostBox]

2 hours ago, Chemist said:

Yikes lol

 

 

The more people here form him the worse he does and will do. That's why I actually don't believe having him in the debates would hurt Biden. It could actually benefit him.  Trump and Kennedy would be spiting some of the same ideas and beliefs. That could hurt Trump with some of his voters. 
 

also I know he can't help it but his speaking voice could really be a turnoff for a lot of voters. 

Edited March 28 by GhostBox

[VOSS]