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Has Ariana lost her hitmaking ability?


airplane

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Even without all the versions it would still debut in Top 5. That’s a hit baby. 
 

Many hit songs never hit #1.

 

If you want to discuss longevity then you gonna have to wait. Only time will tell if this was a quick lil single or not. 

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1 hour ago, She-Rah said:

Her image is tarnished beyond repair, she’s lost her youthful looks/beauty plus she’s older now and she never truly established a solid fan base she was just the it girl during like 2 years but the GP has moved on.

Yeah if you try to occupy the hitmaker lane a la Rihanna or Dua, you should be a bit more careful with your image and how you behave, or the GP will drop you like a hot potato

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14 minutes ago, Badgalbriel said:

You're losing me was never even released as a single. Wtf 

Besides, it was released on a Wednesday. :rip:

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Ariana went over 5 years before she got her first number 1 with TUN.  Then there was a two year period where she racked up 6 number 1s (notably though 3 were features and 4 were only number 1 for like 1 week).  Then she took a 3+ year break. 
 

I would argue that her peak was not quite the imperial phase a la Gaga in 2009, Taylor in 2015, Adele 2011 and yes and shows that there is still considerable interest in her music.  

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11 minutes ago, Musicmajor said:

I don't think anyone is debuting with that high over point anymore on billboard. The landscape has changed. Many artists including TS are releasing multiple album covers, singles (sped up, ect). It's just how it is now. To say it's only Ariana is crazy! 

Her peers have been able to pull some solid points and debuts with their lead singles recently but ariana seems to be struggling (despite having so many versions on top and continues to put out more). Obviously, this is based on predictions but they’re mostly accurate. It’s giving lil quick bloated #1 so far. I guess i’ve set myself up with this thread :toofunny3:

Edited by airplane
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Yes, and? might be a shite song but it’s literally #1 worldwide rn… lol?

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can y’all at least wait a little before making such threads :rip: it’s been a week

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The extreme copium :ahh:she’s been No.1 on streaming globally for a week now. She had her highest song debut to date. 
 

The cycle on ATRL is always so predictable. Artist uses tactics that the music industry THEMSELVES encourages to get a No.1 ——> theyre desperate

 

Artist doesnt use those tactics ——> lazy, a flop, worst team of all time, we need TTH and extreme playlisting.

 

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8 minutes ago, byzantium said:

Ariana went over 5 years before she got her first number 1 with TUN.  Then there was a two year period where she racked up 6 number 1s (notably though 3 were features and 4 were only number 1 for like 1 week).  Then she took a 3+ year break. 
 

I would argue that her peak was not quite the imperial phase a la Gaga in 2009, Taylor in 2015, Adele 2011 and yes and shows that there is still considerable interest in her music.  

If anything the fact that she never had such an imperial phase and continues to rack up solid No.1s is even more impressive. There’s a reason she was the queen of streaming before Taylor started dominating.

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1 hour ago, Revolution said:

it is her ME! the song is too fun/camp/musical/gay for the GP who only likes sad girl music.

Is the gay in the room with us? :rip:

 

I don't claim that kindergarden song as gay

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Regarding yes, and?, this is her no tear left to cry

 

Wait untill her tun kicks in :gaycat1:

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Yes, absolutely because Karma is a flop for a homewrecka!

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Since the song is falling kinda hard on US Apple Music (and now Spotify), I would agree that she’s lost a bit of hitmaking power here. But it’s hard to tell if this is due to a poor single choice, or if Ariana is truly losing her appeal. 

 

Single #2 will tell us the full story.

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I’m sorry but seeing all the variations lined up like that is sending me. :ahh: 

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56 minutes ago, airplane said:

Why is none of this being reflected in the sales or chart points? How did she go from 800 points to merely 265 (estimated):rip:?

 

Even lift me up (which bombed hard) debuted with around 330 points.

 

I guess we’ll see when the official charts are out but for now, things aren’t looking good for Ms Grande.

Part of this is because the way estimators predict chart points has changed over time, as has the actual Billboard formula with the changing ratios between streaming consumption and sales consumption over the last several years. 265 points this week doesn’t mean the same thing that it did a year ago, and certainly doesn’t mean what it meant five years ago. While it’s true that the commercial response to Yes, And? isn’t meeting the bar of clearly and easily clearing the field for an instant #1, she did have a her best global streaming week for a solo single with it, which indicates that commercial response hasn’t really been massively eroded by the press about her lately. If anything, it’s just how the song sounds and how these kinds of songs usually do that’s the major factor here. We also have to remember that radio, in particular, is a bigger influence on the Hot 100 lately after formula adjustments and the near-death of sales, and she doesn’t seem to have the same strong radio deal that some major lead singles, including some of her own, have had in the past.

 

Ultimately, this song will (probably) be a #1 in the US and will introduce her new era relatively successfully. I imagine that even if it does free fall, a second or third single could still be a major smash hit with the right sound and promotion.

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Lmao no. She's likely debuting #1 and without the additional sales trickery she would be #2 by a significant margin - with a house song.  If anything this proves she has demand. The song was #1 on Spotify Global all week. During Positions release week ATRL claimed it was her Witness era and that claim didn't take long to completely backfire lol. 

 

Isn't this what ATRL wanted though? An Ariana/Max Martin dance-pop song? I thought that was what she needed for a smash hit? I guess ATRL doesn't know what they're talking about (shocker!). She needs to stop listening to the aging gays and do what the majority of her audience wants from her which is to hear her sing in her pop/r&b bag. 

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1 hour ago, Breathe On Moi said:

I love her but I want this song to flop into oblivion so that the album doesn’t sound like it 

1) it doesn’t sound like that anyway 

 

2) you do know that an album scheduled to be released in 2 months can’t, and won’t, be changed no matter how the single performs right ? :rip:

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2 minutes ago, ScorpiosGroove said:

 

 

2) you do know that an album scheduled to be released in 2 months can’t, and won’t, be changed no matter how the single performs right ? :rip:

says who? :rip:

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22 minutes ago, Love Again said:

If anything the fact that she never had such an imperial phase and continues to rack up solid No.1s is even more impressive. There’s a reason she was the queen of streaming before Taylor started dominating.

Her career in my mind has some parallels to Rihanna in that regard which is certainly not a bad comparison at all.  

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2 hours ago, airplane said:

 

This song is expected to do just 265 points which is a massive decline compared to her other songs. Mind you, this one has like 69 various versions to buy and stream but it’s not doing anything for her :toofunny3:

"Points" doesn't actually say anything unless evaluated against each time period's Billboard formula and what the average song does in points though. The pandemic literally halved what radio airplay was valued in points. 

 

5 years ago, you'd need like 40M audience impressions to be Top 20 on pop radio, while now you can do that with less than 20M. What do you think happens then to these points if the components that make them up fundamentally change?

 

Measuring what points are doesn't actually say anything about Ariana in particular if the average points of the Top 10 - for example - have been on a gradual decline for 4 years due to music consumption diversifying. 

Edited by Communion
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3 minutes ago, Breathe On Moi said:

says who? :rip:

Well, the vinyl are almost 100% certainly already pressed and ready to be shipped, and scrapping an album with physicals already ready to rework it would take a major, major bomb of a single.

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her best singles in years.

ya'll have no taste.

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Dr. Alexander
Just now, kelsea said:

Hopefully she can get The Weeknd to jump on version #15 to give the song some stability! 

Hello kelsea,

 

The Weeknd will not be featured on any of the newly released versions of the single. To stay up to date on Ariana Grande and her chart history instead of your own favorite artist, you may follow any of the chart update accounts on Twitter for more information. Apple Music and Spotify updates daily. If you have any questions, I will be happy to assist. 

 

Best,

 

Dr. Alexander

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