discussion OHDems win abortion+weed; VADems win Assembly; PADems win state Supreme Court

[Bears01]

 

[If U Seek Amy]

2 hours ago, Bears01 said:

 

That is good to hear! I think a lot are underestimating dems in the elections this year. In these special and non-midterm/presidential election years turnout has been high and dems have been doing extremely well when they typically shouldn't be. Way too many are attributing Israel/Palestine as a reason dems will lose right now but I really don't think so. Local/Statewide elections typically run a bit differently and focus really on statewide issues, not national. It will likely come into play more next year when the national stage is more on display, but I have not read/heard one Ohio voter who said I am not voting with dems/for dems or republicans/for republicans because of Israel/Palestine handling by Biden or comments made by politicians. They are fully concerned about our statewide issues and any politician's possible view on those issues. 

[GhostBox]

5 hours ago, Bears01 said:

 

Considering there’s no big race on the ballots in Virginia this year that’s decent numbers 

[Bears01]

@If U Seek Amy been hearing on Ohios subreddit there was huge turnout and long lines in Cincy and Toledo today 👀👀

[ClashAndBurn]

[Bears01]

17 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

I’m in: it means nothing for 2024. Local races, local issues. If we’re looking at anything of any of the races, we’d best be paying attention to VA and OH (abortion messaging, direct vote on it, see if Youngkin “cracked the code”) and PA (it’s a premiere purple state). 
 

BTW @Communion: what is going on here in this district? 

 

 

 

[Communion]

Just now, Bears01 said:

I’m in: it means nothing for 2024. Local races, local issues. If we’re looking at anything of any of the races, we’d best be paying attention to VA and OH (abortion messaging, direct vote on it, see if Youngkin “cracked the code”) and PA (it’s a premiere purple state). 
 

BTW @Communion: what is going on here in this district? 

 

 

 

lnjknknjkkkjnkjn not Lakewood. It's basically the Orthodox hub of New Jersey. 

 

From what I've seen people say, there's likely going to be little movement. It's a low turnout election. GOP will probably pick up 1-2 seats per chamber.

 

This likely explains LD-30:

But the 1-2 flips Dem achieve will likely be outdone by the 3-4 flips the GOP does. 

 

The main harm will probably be in the GOP districts the crazies being the most organized in taking over school boards.

[If U Seek Amy]

1 hour ago, Bears01 said:

@If U Seek Amy been hearing on Ohios subreddit there was huge turnout and long lines in Cincy and Toledo today 👀👀

Oh good to hear! I saw my family this weekend at some point and even the conservative members were ready to vote yes on issue 1 and 2 and pumped. I laughed even they were like hell no on the abortion bans and no weed and they dont even consume marijuana or have any personal concern for abortion hahaha

[Vermillion]

 

[Vermillion]

 

[Vermillion]

What damn gay intern did this  

 

[Bears01]

 

 

[Vermillion]

Another forecast:

 

[Vermillion]

 

[woohoo]

For the first time in years someone is running against the Republican in my district for senate and I’m going to vote for them. I don’t care if I am the only one who does, FINALLY an option. 

[Bears01]

52 minutes ago, woohoo said:

For the first time in years someone is running against the Republican in my district for senate and I’m going to vote for them. I don’t care if I am the only one who does, FINALLY an option. 

Which race and in which state?

 

Another forecast too: 

 

 

@Espresso just for fun, what do you think are the most important races tomorrow? 
 

For me it’s: VA leg=OH referendum>PA SC>KY Gov>NJ Leg>MS GOV

[Sannie]

KY loves themselves a Democrat governor. Beshear is very popular so this idea that Cameron suddenly made up over a dozen points in the last month seems fishy to me. It seems like a last-minute attempt to drum up some election attention, and it worked with everyone jumping on that one poll.  I do not know what to fully expect, but I think Beshear might pull it out. It will be close even though Cameron is objectively a bad choice.

 

There is no way Ohioans do not come out for this abortion issue considering they came out for that special election. I will be really, really shocked if that fails. I am curious if the GOP in OH try to do anything if it does pass. They refused to create new maps... what happens if they refuse to abide by this?

 

People thinking Palestine will have an effect on this stuff are being silly. Majority of state/local voters do not even know what is going on overseas, nor do they care. Additionally, not voting in a state or local election because of international affairs is downright so damn stupid. Your governor has nothing to do with foreign affairs, unless, of course, they pull off some PR stunt and fly to Israel to "show support" . You should always vote in your state and local elections because they are your last defense against stupid federal politicians who do not care about you. It is much, much easier to hold local leaders accountable than it is to hold those in DC accountable.

 

Dems have been performing quite well since 2020 so it will be shocking if they are suddenly shafted. If anything, it will just mean the abortion news has died down and people are now focusing on the economy and what they have been told. But of course progressives will swear it is about Palestine which just makes no sense. There will be plenty to blame on the Biden admin's horrible response to Palestine's genocide next year. These state races have nothing to do with it.

[woohoo]

1 hour ago, Bears01 said:

Which race and in which state?

 

Another forecast too: 

 

 

@Espresso just for fun, what do you think are the most important races tomorrow? 
 

For me it’s: VA leg=OH referendum>PA SC>KY Gov>NJ Leg>MS GOV

VA Senate 05. My house district is still unopposed though. 

[Bears01]

1 hour ago, Sannie said:

KY loves themselves a Democrat governor. Beshear is very popular so this idea that Cameron suddenly made up over a dozen points in the last month seems fishy to me. It seems like a last-minute attempt to drum up some election attention, and it worked with everyone jumping on that one poll.  I do not know what to fully expect, but I think Beshear might pull it out. It will be close even though Cameron is objectively a bad choice.

 

There is no way Ohioans do not come out for this abortion issue considering they came out for that special election. I will be really, really shocked if that fails. I am curious if the GOP in OH try to do anything if it does pass. They refused to create new maps... what happens if they refuse to abide by this?

 

People thinking Palestine will have an effect on this stuff are being silly. Majority of state/local voters do not even know what is going on overseas, nor do they care. Additionally, not voting in a state or local election because of international affairs is downright so damn stupid. Your governor has nothing to do with foreign affairs, unless, of course, they pull off some PR stunt and fly to Israel to "show support" . You should always vote in your state and local elections because they are your last defense against stupid federal politicians who do not care about you. It is much, much easier to hold local leaders accountable than it is to hold those in DC accountable.

 

Dems have been performing quite well since 2020 so it will be shocking if they are suddenly shafted. If anything, it will just mean the abortion news has died down and people are now focusing on the economy and what they have been told. But of course progressives will swear it is about Palestine which just makes no sense. There will be plenty to blame on the Biden admin's horrible response to Palestine's genocide next year. These state races have nothing to do with it.

That OH abortion amendment is a constitutional amendment, literally the strongest thing they have to bypass courts and the legislature. They’ve never put an ISL up for a constitutional amendment and they’re trying to do so for 24, they’ve passed a statue (which the weed amendment is this year) which can get changed or altered or outright rejected by the leg. 
 

If the abortion amendment is enshrined in their constitution, the issue as they know it, is dead 

[GhostBox]

Hoping for good results today. I fear the VA results but I guess I still have ptsd from last time 💀

 

hope the Dems pull off the PA race and the Ohio abortion race  as well. Big big races there. 
🤞🤞🤞🤞

[Vermillion]

11 hours ago, Bears01 said:

 

@Espresso just for fun, what do you think are the most important races tomorrow? 
 

For me it’s: VA leg=OH referendum>PA SC>KY Gov>NJ Leg>MS GOV

This is where I’m at too on importance.

 

Optimistic about Ohio, cynical about Virginia. Too many wildcards.

[Raspberries]

Watching Ohio's god awful Secretary of State's reaction to Issue 1 passing will be amazing

[FameFatale]

Just got my vote in!

[Sannie]

13 hours ago, Bears01 said:

That OH abortion amendment is a constitutional amendment, literally the strongest thing they have to bypass courts and the legislature. They’ve never put an ISL up for a constitutional amendment and they’re trying to do so for 24, they’ve passed a statue (which the weed amendment is this year) which can get changed or altered or outright rejected by the leg. 
 

If the abortion amendment is enshrined in their constitution, the issue as they know it, is dead 

I would love to believe this, really, but I do not put it past the GOP to try and take this to the courts. I do not think they would win, but still.  

[woohoo]

Any word on how turn out is in Virginia so far?