discussion OHDems win abortion+weed; VADems win Assembly; PADems win state Supreme Court

[Chemist]

The Ohio referendum . Anti abortionist keep taking massive L's

[GhostBox]

I really wanted Gibson to win but dang she didn’t 

horrible what her opponent did to her 

[Bears01]

Not your state having an all out Blue Wave @Communion

 

@Espresso I’m more relieved for you guys than anything, but VA Dems really did do the bare minimum especially compared to everywhere not named NY and Mississippi

[Mike91]

15 minutes ago, Bloo said:

Others have already highlighted that this trend isn’t holding for the millennial generation. I think it’s worth noting that many economists believe this is likely due to the fact that millennials (and Gen Z) are unable to afford housing. Becoming a property owner is one of the more reliable economic launchpads to shifting to the right: when you start to care about property values, property taxes, obsessively follow crime rates because it affects your property value, etc.

 

Millenials and Gen Z have been so thoroughly screwed over economically that we’re less likely to shift in that direction because we simply can’t afford housing. 

I'd also argue that the theory about being a homeowner and paying taxes making you more conservative came about because we had been living under an era of conservatism since Reagan (that demonized things like paying taxes), that's beginning to shift. Younger voters want programs like universal healthcare, etc and understand that paying taxes is how we'd fund those programs. Prior to the 80's, people generally had no problem paying taxes because it funded a lot of important programs from the New Deal era that were popular. We're shifting back in the other direction. 

 

Much like how liberal positions became unpopular after the fallout of the Carter presidency, you're seeing conservative policies become political poison for the GOP. Younger voters want nothing to do with their policies and they're becoming too extreme for moderate voters, who have shifted to the left on a lot of issues over the past decade.

 

[Monster Megamind]

Electoralism is the only way to create change. You can take out a thousand protests but if you don't have representatives in the places that actually matter, you can change jack shyt. Only people who persevere, knock doors and appeal to a broader electorate are poised to win.

[Monster Megamind]

Also it's a slap in the face of people who thought The Israel war would effect today's results... Mind you, they wouldn't have hesitated to rub in our faces again and again, if the results had not been good for Dems tonight. Thank God for that!

[Monster Megamind]

The suburban Dems are turning out and saving Dems again and again.. 

[Bloo]

27 minutes ago, Mike91 said:

I'd also argue that the theory about being a homeowner and paying taxes making you more conservative came about because we had been living under an era of conservatism since Reagan (that demonized things like paying taxes), that's beginning to shift. Younger voters want programs like universal healthcare, etc and understand that paying taxes is how we'd fund those programs. Prior to the 80's, people generally had no problem paying taxes because it funded a lot of important programs from the New Deal era that were popular. We're shifting back in the other direction. 

 

Much like how liberal positions became unpopular after the fallout of the Carter presidency, you're seeing conservative policies become political poison for the GOP. Younger voters want nothing to do with their policies and they're becoming too extreme for moderate voters, who have shifted to the left on a lot of issues over the past decade.

 

I agree.

9 minutes ago, Monster Megamind said:

Electoralism is the only way to create change. You can take out a thousand protests but if you don't have representatives in the places that actually matter, you can change jack shyt. Only people who persevere, knock doors and appeal to a broader electorate are poised to win.

This is historically false and intellectually lazy. Activism is how you mount pressure on elected officials to feel pressure to bend to public demands to pretend to care enough to push change through.

[Bears01]

4 minutes ago, Monster Megamind said:

The suburban Dems are turning out and saving Dems again and again.. 

I agree with this, and this biased Republican data guy is saying that republicans are cratering so badly in PA suburbs that it’s a huge red flag: 

I still don’t understand how VA Dems did so mediocre while we get these kinds of results out of PA  the GOP nominee is going to win THE bellwether county of Erie, and still lost by 4-5….

[Monster Megamind]

2 minutes ago, Bears01 said:

I agree with this, and this biased Republican data guy is saying that republicans are cratering so badly in PA suburbs that it’s a huge red flag: 

I still don’t understand how VA Dems did so mediocre while we get these kinds of results out of PA  the GOP nominee is going to win THE bellwether county of Erie, and still lost by 4-5….

Erie is NOT the bellwether going forward. It's like an ancestral Dem town will runs in oil extraction. We instead should focus on Dauphin county suburbs. It is both southern and South Central counties, that will decide PA going forward!

Edited November 8, 2023 by Monster Megamind

[Monster Megamind]

7 minutes ago, Bloo said:

I agree.

This is historically false and intellectually lazy. Activism is how you mount pressure on elected officials to feel pressure to bend to public demands to pretend to care enough to push change through.

Only if those demands are not cookoo crazy...like defund the police or river to the sea.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Monster Megamind

[Communion]

45 minutes ago, Bears01 said:

Not your state having an all out Blue Wave @Communion

 

@Espresso I’m more relieved for you guys than anything, but VA Dems really did do the bare minimum especially compared to everywhere not named NY and Mississippi

 

3 hours ago, Communion said:

@Bears01 dddd people on election twitter are really excited about this

 

Me now after 5 days ago googling "Avi Schnall policy positions*:

 

2021 really was basically people losing their minds cause they couldn't go to the mall due to COVID.

What such interesting political coalitions have formed in the aftermath.

ddd I don't think you can call it a Blue Wave, in that it's NJ politics returning to political norms.

 

	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017	2019	2021	2023
State Senate	20	22		23		24	24		25		24	25
State Assembly	44	47	49	48	47	48	48	52	54	52	46	51

 

I do think COVID made suburban voters particularly volatile - which Is why I don't trust them as a reliable coalition - which is what made 2021's losses the weakest Dems have been in the last 20 years, but am I happy I'll finally stop getting ads on ATRL about how Gov. Phil Murphy wants to take away my gas stove? Yes!

Edited November 8, 2023 by Communion

[Monster Megamind]

The Ohio map with the suburban coalition is the one that's going to make Dems win statewide in the future and keep it blue.

[Monster Megamind]

New Jersey is one of the most corrupt states in the whole country. If that state Dem machine wanted, it could win much more, but they just gave up many seats to Republican incumbents, to just maintain that narrow majority. That's why NJ cannot be a Michigan or a Minnesota. Also the rich suburban voters are very fiscally conservative.

[Bloo]

9 minutes ago, Monster Megamind said:

Only if those demands are not cookoo crazy...like defund the police or river to the sea.

At one point in history, “abolish slavery” was “cookoo crazy”.

[Monster Megamind]

1 minute ago, Bloo said:

At one point in history, “abolish slavery” was “cookoo crazy”.

I think that protests that have momentum, are self sustaining like the one above and not collapse like a pack of cards like the defund the police one, when we see rampant crime in cities... 

[Communion]

27 minutes ago, Monster Megamind said:

Also it's a slap in the face of people who thought The Israel war would effect today's results

What states with elections tonight had large Arab American or Muslim American populations?

 

Spoiler - The correct answer won't align with what you're hoping for.  But I guess when it's elections for elections sakes, having far-right Orthodox rabbis who were previously Republicans now be elected Dems makes up for low turnout in Bergen county. Numbers are numbers and don't actually mean anything in terms of policy!

Edited November 8, 2023 by Communion

[Bears01]

6 minutes ago, Communion said:

What states with elections tonight had large Arab American or Muslim American populations?

 

Spoiler - The correct answer won't align with what you're hoping for.  But I guess when it's elections for elections sakes, having far-right Orthodox rabbis who were previously Republicans now be elected Dems makes up for low turnout in Bergen county. Numbers are numbers and don't actually mean anything in terms of policy!

Virginia I believe has the 4th most muslim/Arabic population in the county. But lowkey Dems we’re bailed out by the maps and probably enough resist Libs to win it 

[Monster Megamind]

At this point, I don't mind if Biden doesn't run for re-election as long as he's able to see through israel eliminating Hamas. Also his age factor is definitely the main drawback. I would love to see a Gretchen Whitmer vs Gavin newsom primary, where Whitmer wins with her pro union credentials!

[Communion]

15 minutes ago, Monster Megamind said:

The Ohio map with the suburban coalition is the one that's going to make Dems win statewide in the future and keep it blue.

"The affluent suburbs are the future of the Democratic Party!!!"

 

Affluent suburbs: "YES!!"

 

"So you agree that black men shouldn't be disproportionately locked up for something as harmless selling or possessing marijuana?"

 

Affluent suburbs: "NO!!!"

 

[Monster Megamind]

1 minute ago, Communion said:

"The affluent suburbs are the future of the Democratic Party!!!"

 

Affluent suburbs: "YES!!"

 

"So you agree that black men shouldn't be disproportionately locked up for something as harmless selling or possessing marijuana?"

 

Affluent suburbs: "NO!!!"

 

For me abortions are a bigger priority than weed.

[Monster Megamind]

Regarding the weed and abortion issue, its actually a gender issue.

Abortion 53-47 male, 60-40 female

Weed 58-42 male, 55-45 female

 

Females don't like weed that much.... That's the crux of it.

[Chemist]

 

[Monster Megamind]

5 minutes ago, Chemist said:

 

This was expected.... Educated voters and retired voters are the most politically engaged.

[Communion]

9 minutes ago, Bears01 said:

Virginia I believe has the 4th most muslim/Arabic population in the county. But lowkey Dems we’re bailed out by the maps and probably enough resist Libs to win it 

Muslim Americans as % of population:
Illinois: 3.7%
New York: 3.6%
New Jersey: 3.5%
Maryland: 3.1%
Michigan: 2.4%

 

Virginia’s 7th with 2% of its population being Muslim. And a significant portion of that Muslim population is scattered across Northern Virginia and then Emporia.

 

There's largely no exact 1:1 equivalent to Dearborn (and to a lesser degree Hamtramck) where the concentration of Muslims or Arab American is a significant enough portion of the population in terms of density (vs being scattered across cities in places like Virginia) or in a high concentration but outnumbered by what is a huge greater population (Philadelphia, New York City).

 

Even communities in New Jersey are either in legislative districts deep blue (D+40) or gerrymandered in a way that stops them for having too much power in a single district. See: The dissonance of someone like Rep. Gottheimer (NJ-5) having enough Muslims in his district that he literally has dozens of mosques in his district and as their congressional rep has had to participate in Muslim cultural events, while then saying American Muslims have the blood of Israelis on their hands because he has suburbs to pad his support with.

 

The impact even within Michigan would be limited; Dems demonizing of Rashida is odd when she's going to easily win her district. Shri Thanedar is probably the main person that will be impacted with his short-lived tenure after being exposed as a grifter and taking some weirdly anti-Palestine stance. It will likely impact Whitmer but her margins across the state will have been large enough to weather such. The main impact will have always been what it will do in a year from now to Biden's razor-thin win in Michigan.

 

And nothing else has ever been claimed, so to other users - not you - try to cope as though anything about tonight suggests positives for Biden seems odd when exit polls show voters, even those who voted for Democrats or progressive policy, do not like him nor have faith in him.