discussion OHDems win abortion+weed; VADems win Assembly; PADems win state Supreme Court

[Espresso]

2023 U.S. Election Thread

 

I’ll post results here as they come in

 

 

[Espresso]

@If U Seek Amy Please get in here too Ohioan!

[Bears01]

2 minutes ago, Espresso said:

@Bears01 Hey I’ve decided to create this as we track the night of as I felt it deserved it‘s own thread. I’ll post in here recommended sources over the next day or two but please post any subsequently you’d recommend. I’m out on business most of the day but will get to further updates eventually. I’ll delete the other thread and re-post some of your sourcing.

 

 

Got it, I’ll post some polls and predictions that dropped over the last few days and anyone else is free to chime in 

[Espresso]

 

[Bears01]

 

[Bears01]

This polling outlet did horrible in 2022, but they have a reliable track record historically 

[Bears01]

 

 

[Bears01]

 

[Communion]

I notice something missing from the title. 

[Bears01]

15 minutes ago, Communion said:

I notice something missing from the title. 

Fam, like everyone else, we try to forget NJ exists…..(jk love y’all )

[ClashAndBurn]

45 minutes ago, Bears01 said:

This polling outlet did horrible in 2022, but they have a reliable track record historically 

Wonder if Joe Biden being dead weight due to supporting genocide had an effect here. Beshear was romping with this pollster until just now.

 

 

 

From +16 to dead heat is a WILD drop in advantage.

[Bears01]

4 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

Wonder if Joe Biden being dead weight due to supporting genocide had an effect here. Beshear was romping with this pollster until just now.

 

 

 

From +16 to dead heat is a WILD drop in advantage.

I would think that’d have much more of an effect on Virginia or Pennsylvania, VA is as swingy as it can get downballot, and PA is like, the premier purple state outside of WI and AZ. And VA has a much bigger Muslim population than KY. 
 

The reality is: KY is RED. Probably top 5 reddest states in the country, and this race was always going to be close, especially because god king trump endorsed Daniel Cameron 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Bears01

[ClashAndBurn]

2 minutes ago, Bears01 said:

I would think that’d have much more of an effect on Virginia or Pennsylvania, VA is as swingy as it can get downballot, and PA is like, the premier purple state outside of WI and AZ. And VA has a much bigger Muslim population than KY. 
 

The reality is: KY is RED. Probably top 5 reddest states in the country, and this race was always going to be close, especially because god king trump endorsed Daniel Cameron 

Sure, Muslims may be more in other states, but i think they're more likely to just not support Joe Biden specifically while voting as normal down-ballot, which is why Virginia Dems don't appear to have collapsed. At least for now. Next year might be a different story.

 

Young voters are everywhere though, and they're disengaging from the process entirely thanks to Genocide Joe. They'd be more liable to punish the party as a whole rather than just Biden alone.

[Bears01]

5 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

Sure, Muslims may be more in other states, but i think they're more likely to just not support Joe Biden specifically while voting as normal down-ballot, which is why Virginia Dems don't appear to have collapsed. At least for now. Next year might be a different story.

 

Young voters are everywhere though, and they're disengaging from the process entirely thanks to Genocide Joe. They'd be more liable to punish the party as a whole rather than just Biden alone.

I think this is a much more relevant (and true) argument for 2024. I’m in 100% agreement there. 100%. 
 

But for the KY Governor race, I am not. And that’s just because: it’s Kentucky lol. 

[Bears01]

@ClashAndBurn this Twitter thread gives good insight into the youth turnout in competitive races in VA (spoiler alert, it’s bad, but not that horrible in 1 house district that democrats already had like a 65% chance of winning, but it’s catastrophic in a tossup senate race): 

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Bears01

[Matthew4815]

Will be voting for Beshear in KY and getting as many people to do so as well!

[If U Seek Amy]

I will definitely be following closely. Today is a busy day doing stuff with people, but I did want to take a chance to at least respond and let Esepresso know for the tag know I did go through this briefly and see it. But when I have more time, I definitely want to dig more into this data. Particularly the Kentucky governor race apparently tightening so much. I am sure the ongoing Palestine/Israel conflict effects things, but I don't see that being the sole reason or even a big reason for elections changing drastically this year. I think it will be much more likely to affect Biden if anything (people tend to be forgetful and who knows what can happen between now and 2024), but we will see as you never know. If anything I think honestly Beshear probably just had poll bias due to farther off polls being more scarce and incumbent friendly and now they are becoming more realistic with more being conducted and voters more engaged as the day approaches. But I would have to look at the data/facts to verify that, just some preliminary thoughts. 

[chessguy99]

2 hours ago, ClashAndBurn said:

Wonder if Joe Biden being dead weight due to supporting genocide had an effect here. Beshear was romping with this pollster until just now.

 

 

 

From +16 to dead heat is a WILD drop in advantage.

It's the Republican strategy, making this election more a referendum on Biden that how well Beshear has done as governor. And it's working, turning off marginal Democratic voters and energizing Republicans.

[woohoo]

My district in VA is solid red, but I’m still going to vote with the shred of hope that other young people like me who are never polled show up with the same mind set and flip it. Younkins plans for the state are terrible. 

[Bears01]

19 minutes ago, chessguy99 said:

It's the Republican strategy, making this election more a referendum on Biden that how well Beshear has done as governor. And it's working, turning off marginal Democratic voters and energizing Republicans.

It’s also pretty smart to make it a referendum on Biden because this is how Kentucky voted when Biden was on the ballot: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Kentucky

 

Regardless, it’s still just 1 poll and KY is hard to poll, but it’s just a state that is so insanely red that Beshar winning again was always going to be a fight 

[Communion]

4 hours ago, Bears01 said:

Fam, like everyone else, we try to forget NJ exists…..(jk love y’all )

Don't worry, I think we forgot about our own elections too.

 

 

[tiejc]

Voted early for the Democrats couple of weeks ago in VA. Fingers crossed for good news on Tuesday.

[GhostBox]

I’m excited to watch the results role in 👏🏼 I love election nights 

[Bears01]

4 hours ago, Communion said:

Don't worry, I think we forgot about our own elections too.

 

 

I mean of all the races on Tuesday, NJ has by far the least on the line. If the Dem wins in PA, they likely hold the court till the middle of the 2030’s and control how the redistricting process goes next decade, in VA, Virginia can go from the only state in the south with lax abortion laws and legal marijuana, to neither of those things, OH, doesn’t even have to be explained, and KY Governor has been a good predictor of what party wins the presidency the next year for 25 years now 

[FameFatale]

I sound crazy but keep an eye on MS Gov race Tuesday. Brandon Presley has ran a really good campaign and the current Republican incumbent is widely unpopular. I think a runoff might happen.