charts discussion Final predictions (10/28): Taylor #1, 60+pts ahead of #2

[simmnfierzig]

37 minutes ago, Steve Johnson said:

Not certain. Drake's Apple Music numbers can be very big. 

There isnt too much variance there in a 2nd week. 

[lukascharts]

1 hour ago, Steve Johnson said:

Not certain. Drake's Apple Music numbers can be very big. 

Not really. Apple Music numbers are very predictable after the first week.

 

It's doing less streams on there than on Spotify. Not enough for #1 on the Hot 100.

[omrimayo]

How the new predictions are CS over IDGAF only by 3 points? Weird I was sure it’s gonna be more like 7-10.

[Klein]

5 minutes ago, omrimayo said:

How the new predictions are CS over IDGAF only by 3 points? Weird I was sure it’s gonna be more like 7-10.

It had a 1 point lead previously. Unless I'm mistaken, to add 6-9 points and have a 7-10 points lead it would need 6-9k sales.

[Cruel Summer]

7 minutes ago, omrimayo said:

How the new predictions are CS over IDGAF only by 3 points? Weird I was sure it’s gonna be more like 7-10.

I would say that it’s still unclear how the new single version will impact things, since it’s still only hours old, and they’ll have a better idea of how much it helped by the end of the week. Predictors may be trying to be conservative with estimates of how it helped. Radio and streaming are also looking good for Cruel Summer, but those are slow incremental advantages, small amounts of point differences from the other #1 contenders that are slowly building each day.

[lukascharts]

45 minutes ago, omrimayo said:

How the new predictions are CS over IDGAF only by 3 points? Weird I was sure it’s gonna be more like 7-10.

Because Winston's inaccurate (and not trustworthy in general, he only posts in interesting weeks which is proof clout is the only thing he cares about).

 

Streaming and sales are both way up. It's doing way more sales and streams than what the prediction shows. TOTC posted to subs that CS is going to do around 220 points. (It's probably doing 215 points at least, and 215 is if the new version isn't doing many sales, which is highly unlikely given how quickly it shot up to #1 on iTunes.)

[Maroonx]

People should not understimate Drake, it's gonna be a tight race between Doja/Drake/Taylor.

 

Taylor fans should continue to stream and buy the song digitally x

[naval23]

If Cruel Summer peaks at #2 after all of this, she is truly cursed

 

and can only blame herself for not giving us a MV 

[lukascharts]

1 hour ago, Maroonx said:

People should not understimate Drake, it's gonna be a tight race between Doja/Drake/Taylor.

 

Taylor fans should continue to stream and buy the song digitally x

Nobody's underestimating Drake. Spotify numbers and AM trajectories indicate the song will do around 200 points, compared to Taylor's 220.

 

It's possible Drake might not even be top 3 (with Snooze at #3 instead).

[omrimayo]

2 hours ago, lukascharts said:

Because Winston's inaccurate (and not trustworthy in general, he only posts in interesting weeks which is proof clout is the only thing he cares about).

 

Streaming and sales are both way up. It's doing way more sales and streams than what the prediction shows. TOTC posted to subs that CS is going to do around 220 points. (It's probably doing 215 points at least, and 215 is if the new version isn't doing many sales, which is highly unlikely given how quickly it shot up to #1 on iTunes.)

Oh thank you, I liked reading this. 

[Ms. Togekiss]

That Winston twink should not be trusted when it comes to Hot 100 predictions. His BB200 predictions end up being a little more accurate even though his “initial looks” are always way off

[Chartman]

It‘s time for Taylor to join the club of artists with at least 10 #1 hits. Soon to follow with number 11 from 1989 TV.

[St. Charles]

It’s crazy that Taylor and sza are still fighting for #1 almost exactly a year later 

[KOMH]

Favourite for #1 according to Billboard

 

https://www.billboard.com/pro/taylor-swift-cruel-summer-eras-tour-hot-100-number-one/

[pride4jc1222]

43 minutes ago, St. Charles said:

It’s crazy that Taylor and sza are still fighting for #1 almost exactly a year later 

Also Taylor and Drake. If not for Taylor, Drake would be in line for his 15th #1. (Although, in that alternative timeline, Rihanna would have a 15th #1 with Lift Me Up.)

[wastedpotential]

58 minutes ago, Chartman said:

It‘s time for Taylor to join the club of artists with at least 10 #1 hits. Soon to follow with number 11 from 1989 TV.

She'll join Drake as the only act with both 10 (or more) #1 singles and albums 

[suburbannature]

I think she has it

[Folklore89sm]

This would be such a moment. Cruel Summer finally hitting #1 after long years of begging for it to get single treatment would be incredible and a satisfying, proper end to the Lover era. I’m not usually a fan of remixes but I’d love a studio version of CS with the “with you” tour outro which makes the song feel more complete.

 

edit: just found a pretty good fake studio recording of the tour version witg the outro on YouTube. If push comes to shove, she should release something like this (2:48)

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Folklore89sm

[suburbannature]

1 hour ago, suburbannature said:

I think she has it

@PoisonPill, problem?

[PoisonPill]

31 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

@PoisonPill, problem?

I don’t want us getting overconfident when it’s still so close and the point gap keeps changing

does anyone know if the single version is on Amazon for purchase yet? 

[omrimayo]

14 minutes ago, PoisonPill said:

I don’t want us getting overconfident when it’s still so close and the point gap keeps changing

does anyone know if the single version is on Amazon for purchase yet? 

It is since the morning also.

[pride4jc1222]

It looks like a close race in Canada: 

 

[Maroonx]

Don't claim victory for "Cruel Summer" just yet... US Drake fans have started a mass buying/streaming party to get IDGAF to #1 now.

 

Source: 

 

[kexin]

7 hours ago, lukascharts said:

Because Winston's inaccurate (and not trustworthy in general, he only posts in interesting weeks which is proof clout is the only thing he cares about).

 

Streaming and sales are both way up. It's doing way more sales and streams than what the prediction shows. TOTC posted to subs that CS is going to do around 220 points. (It's probably doing 215 points at least, and 215 is if the new version isn't doing many sales, which is highly unlikely given how quickly it shot up to #1 on iTunes.)

they’re called predictions for a reason, Lol

[PoisonPill]

1 hour ago, omrimayo said:

It is since the morning also.

Can someone send the Amazon link? I've searched several times but only see the album version I already purchased.