charts discussion Final predictions (10/28): Taylor #1, 60+pts ahead of #2

[suburbannature]

1 minute ago, FolkLover1989 said:

She most likely isn't gonna break Mariah record and that's fine as it get compensated in album #1 record

 

 

Also about 40+ ,Bey will get some more 

Album #1 record, yes, but Mariah will remain ahead on Soundscan and RIAA for some time. I see Taylor taking that eventually unless she majorly slows down. Streaming formula is pretty forgiving as well.

[FolkLover1989]

2 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

Album #1 record, yes, but Mariah will remain ahead on Soundscan and RIAA for some time. I see Taylor taking that eventually unless she majorly slows down. Streaming formula is pretty forgiving as well.

I think she already is on RIAA but sadly her first 6 albums won't be updated now so there is that. 

[suburbannature]

Just now, FolkLover1989 said:

I think she already is on RIAA but sadly her first 6 albums won't be updated now so there is that. 

Mariah is at 74 million in albums on RIAA. Taylor is at 51 million, but yes, needs some updates.

[FolkLover1989]

1 minute ago, suburbannature said:

Mariah is at 74 million in albums on RIAA. Taylor is at 51 million, but yes, needs some updates.

Those 51m albums are very outdated , with only BB updates that doesn't count double disc album and pre release unit etc.. Taylor is already 70m+

Edited October 23, 2023 by FolkLover1989

[Holiest Dreams]

If Taylor did pre-release singles for her next 2-3 albums, I could see that giving her a chance to eventually get ahead of Mariah. And I mean not just after those albums, because of course they wouldn’t get her 9-10 more, but it would get her enough that she would only need a couple rather than 6-7 once she starts to slow down. But she won’t do that, and it’s okay. I don’t really care about the #1 singles record, and it seems more lucrative to focus on albums…

 

Cruel Summer being the 10th #1 for her is so poetic though. A legendary situation for a legendary feat.

[suburbannature]

14 minutes ago, FolkLover1989 said:

Those 51 albums are very outdated , with only BB updates that doesn't count double disc album and pre release unit etc.. Taylor is already 70m+

It's not that outdated, sis. 

 

Quote

Here is a rundown of Taylor Swift‘s career album and song sales measured by on-demand official streams, radio airplay and digital song sales in the U.S., through Oct. 13, 2022, according to Luminate.

 

 

Oct 2022 (Luminate PURE):

Debut 5.8 million (7x Platinum)

Fearless 7.3 million (Diamond)

Speak Now 4.8 million (6x Platinum)

Red 4.5 million (7x Platinum)

1989 6.3 million (9x Platinum)

Reputation 2.4 million (3x Platinum)

Lover 1.5 million (3x Platinum)

Folklore 1.7 million (2x Platinum)

Evermore 900k (Platinum)

Midnights 2.5 million (2x Platinum)

Fearless TV 700k (No cert)*

Red TV 1 million (No cert)*

Speak Now TV 500k (No cert)*

 

Est SPS WW by CM (a stan):

Debut 6.7 million (7x Platinum in US)

Fearless 9.99 Million (Diamond)

Speak Now 6.4 million (6x Platinum)

Red 7.2 million (7x Platinum)

1989 10.7 million (9x Platinum)*

Reputation 3.7 million (3x Platinum)

Lover 2.6 million (3x Platinum)

Evermore 1.75 million (Platinum)

Midnights 3.4 million (2x Platinum)*

 

I'd say she's under-certified by about 4-5 million

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by suburbannature

[By the Water]

13 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

It's not that outdated, sis. 

 

 

 

Oct 2022 (Luminate PURE):

Debut 5.8 million (7x Platinum)

Fearless 7.3 million (Diamond)

Speak Now 4.8 million (6x Platinum)

Red 4.5 million (7x Platinum)

1989 6.3 million (9x Platinum)

Reputation 2.4 million (3x Platinum)

Lover 1.5 million (3x Platinum)

Folklore 1.7 million (2x Platinum)

Evermore 900k (Platinum)

Midnights 2.5 million (2x Platinum)

Fearless TV 700k (No cert)*

Red TV 1 million (No cert)*

Speak Now TV 500k (No cert)*

 

Est SPS WW by CM (a stan):

Debut 6.7 million (7x Platinum in US)

Fearless 9.99 Million (Diamond)

Speak Now 6.4 million (6x Platinum)

Red 7.2 million (7x Platinum)

1989 10.7 million (9x Platinum)*

Reputation 3.7 million (3x Platinum)

Lover 2.6 million (3x Platinum)

Evermore 1.75 million (Platinum)

Midnights 3.4 million (2x Platinum)*

 

I'd say she's under-certified by about 4-5 million

 

Speak Now is 7x Platinum eligible

Red is 8x Platinum eligible

1989 is 12x Platinum eligible

reputation is at least 5x Platinum eligible

Lover is 6x Platinum eligible

Folklore is almost 5x Platinum eligible

evermore is 3x Platinum eligible

Midnights is 6x Platinum eligible

Fearless TV is approaching 2x Platinum

Red TV is 3x Platinum eligible

Speak Now TV is Platinum eligible

 

That's about 25M units right there and before you ask, most of these numbers are from Billboard, what you posted are pure sales

[Itsaliability]

16 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

It's not that outdated, sis. 

 

 

 

Oct 2022 (Luminate PURE):

Debut 5.8 million (7x Platinum)

Fearless 7.3 million (Diamond)

Speak Now 4.8 million (6x Platinum)

Red 4.5 million (7x Platinum)

1989 6.3 million (9x Platinum)

Reputation 2.4 million (3x Platinum)

Lover 1.5 million (3x Platinum)

Folklore 1.7 million (2x Platinum)

Evermore 900k (Platinum)

Midnights 2.5 million (2x Platinum)

Fearless TV 700k (No cert)*

Red TV 1 million (No cert)*

Speak Now TV 500k (No cert)*

 

Est SPS WW by CM (a stan):

Debut 6.7 million (7x Platinum in US)

Fearless 9.99 Million (Diamond)

Speak Now 6.4 million (6x Platinum)

Red 7.2 million (7x Platinum)

1989 10.7 million (9x Platinum)*

Reputation 3.7 million (3x Platinum)

Lover 2.6 million (3x Platinum)

Evermore 1.75 million (Platinum)

Midnights 3.4 million (2x Platinum)*

 

I'd say she's under-certified by about 4-5 million

 

Huh?!

Midnights alone is undercertified 4 million short. And 1989 is eligible for 12x platinum by now as per Billboard, also every album from Lover till Midnights is off by 2-3 millions. 

[suburbannature]

11 minutes ago, By the Water said:

Speak Now is 7x Platinum eligible

Red is 8x Platinum eligible

1989 is 12x Platinum eligible

reputation is at least 5x Platinum eligible

Lover is 6x Platinum eligible

Folklore is almost 5x Platinum eligible

evermore is 3x Platinum eligible

Midnights is 6x Platinum eligible

Fearless TV is approaching 2x Platinum

Red TV is 3x Platinum eligible

Speak Now TV is Platinum eligible

 

That's about 25M units right there and before you ask, most of these numbers are from Billboard, what you posted are pure sales

It says pure in the parentheses for the first list. 
 

you’re majorly inflating some of these. Be fr

[FolkLover1989]

26 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

It's not that outdated, sis. 

 

 

 

Oct 2022 (Luminate PURE):

Debut 5.8 million (7x Platinum)

Fearless 7.3 million (Diamond)

Speak Now 4.8 million (6x Platinum)

Red 4.5 million (7x Platinum)

1989 6.3 million (9x Platinum)

Reputation 2.4 million (3x Platinum)

Lover 1.5 million (3x Platinum)

Folklore 1.7 million (2x Platinum)

Evermore 900k (Platinum)

Midnights 2.5 million (2x Platinum)

Fearless TV 700k (No cert)*

Red TV 1 million (No cert)*

Speak Now TV 500k (No cert)*

 

Est SPS WW by CM (a stan):

Debut 6.7 million (7x Platinum in US)

Fearless 9.99 Million (Diamond)

Speak Now 6.4 million (6x Platinum)

Red 7.2 million (7x Platinum)

1989 10.7 million (9x Platinum)*

Reputation 3.7 million (3x Platinum)

Lover 2.6 million (3x Platinum)

Evermore 1.75 million (Platinum)

Midnights 3.4 million (2x Platinum)*

 

I'd say she's under-certified by about 4-5 million

 

Most figures here are wrong if you check with BB. We are lucky to double check cause most albums are charting weekly

 

Both Lover and Mid are 6x plat eligible and Rep is already eligible or close to it. Folklore is over 5x plat and Red TV and FTV are 3x and 2x respectively. Evermore is 3x plat eligible too

 

So with her recent albums alone that 

 

6+6+6+5+3+3+2+1

 

32m eligible units

 

 

Now , 

 

1989 is 12x plat eligible by BB themselves as it is weekly charting 

 

Red is 8x

SN is 7x 

TS is 7x

Fearless is 11x plat+ (close to 12 dk how much as FTV came long time back)

 

So this is conservatively

 

12+11+8+7+7

 

45m eligible units

 

In short she is already 74m+ even conservatively and without counting double disc rule for RedTV and FTV

 

 

[FolkLover1989]

Just now, suburbannature said:

It says pure in the parentheses for the first list. 
 

you’re majorly inflating some of these. Be fr

How are they inflating when most albums chart every week

 

Is BB and HitsDD also inflating?

[FolkLover1989]

@suburbannature this is BB article from Aug 2023 putting 1989 at 12.3m units

 

https://www.billboard.com/lists/taylor-swift-1989-taylors-version-stats-sales-streams/12-3-million-equivalent-album-units-to-date/

 

 

We don't inflate stats ,just keep up with them 

[suburbannature]

1 minute ago, FolkLover1989 said:

@suburbannature this is BB article from Aug 2023 putting 1989 at 12.3m units

 

https://www.billboard.com/lists/taylor-swift-1989-taylors-version-stats-sales-streams/12-3-million-equivalent-album-units-to-date/

 

 

We don't inflate stats ,just keep up with them 

I didn't say they all were inflated, but quite a few on those list are.

 

The streaming formula is a mess, though.

[By the Water]

1 minute ago, suburbannature said:

It says pure in the parentheses for the first list. 
 

you’re majorly inflating some of these. Be fr

Speak Now: Swift’s third album has earned a total of 7.8 million equivalent album units in the U.S. through Apr. 27, according to Luminate.

1989: To date, no Swift album has earned more equivalent album units – which comprise album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA) – than 1989, with 12.3 million units, according to Luminate.

Reputation: Reputation has earned 5.1M equivalent albums to date

Fearless TV and Red TV:  Swift released Fearless (Taylor’s Version), the first album in her re-recording project, on Apr. 9, 2021. Since that date, the new version of her sophomore album has earned 1.81 million equivalent album units, according to Luminate. Red (Taylor’s Version) has done even better: since its release on Nov. 12, 2021, the re-recording has earned 3.32 million equivalent album units

The rest have never left the BB200 so their units are easy to track. See this thread alone. And this for Lover

 

Just because you can't accept these numbers doesn't mean that they're inflated

[FolkLover1989]

Just now, suburbannature said:

I didn't say they all were inflated, but quite a few on those list are.

 

The streaming formula is a mess, though.

Actually most are deflated 

 

Midnights passed 6x plat this week

Lover 4-5 weeks back was eligible for 6x plat

Folklore is 5.4m units something 

 

Everything as we said

[suburbannature]

1 minute ago, By the Water said:

Speak Now: Swift’s third album has earned a total of 7.8 million equivalent album units in the U.S. through Apr. 27, according to Luminate.

1989: To date, no Swift album has earned more equivalent album units – which comprise album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA) – than 1989, with 12.3 million units, according to Luminate.

Reputation: Reputation has earned 5.1M equivalent albums to date

Fearless TV and Red TV:  Swift released Fearless (Taylor’s Version), the first album in her re-recording project, on Apr. 9, 2021. Since that date, the new version of her sophomore album has earned 1.81 million equivalent album units, according to Luminate. Red (Taylor’s Version) has done even better: since its release on Nov. 12, 2021, the re-recording has earned 3.32 million equivalent album units

The rest have never left the BB200 so their units are easy to track. See this thread alone. And this for Lover

 

Just because you can't accept these numbers doesn't mean that they're inflated

"The rest" being 7 albums you don't have receipts for

[FolkLover1989]

1 minute ago, By the Water said:

Speak Now: Swift’s third album has earned a total of 7.8 million equivalent album units in the U.S. through Apr. 27, according to Luminate.

1989: To date, no Swift album has earned more equivalent album units – which comprise album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA) – than 1989, with 12.3 million units, according to Luminate.

Reputation: Reputation has earned 5.1M equivalent albums to date

Fearless TV and Red TV:  Swift released Fearless (Taylor’s Version), the first album in her re-recording project, on Apr. 9, 2021. Since that date, the new version of her sophomore album has earned 1.81 million equivalent album units, according to Luminate. Red (Taylor’s Version) has done even better: since its release on Nov. 12, 2021, the re-recording has earned 3.32 million equivalent album units

The rest have never left the BB200 so their units are easy to track. See this thread alone. And this for Lover

 

Just because you can't accept these numbers doesn't mean that they're inflated

That Reputation 5.1m is year old

 

It has moved around 1m units after that as can be seen on BB200

[FolkLover1989]

1 minute ago, suburbannature said:

"The rest" being 7 albums you don't have receipts for

Lover and Midnights are in Top 10 of BB 

You can check it yourself you know

 

Folklore is in Top 20 too.  Check the HDD ytd total and you will get your units 

 

Same for Evermore

[By the Water]

2 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

"The rest" being 7 albums you don't have receipts for

The rest being Lover, folklore, evermore and Midnights so not quite 7 albums. And none of them have ever left the BB200 so if you don’t like the receipt posted you can add all their units yourself. Anyway, the coping is insane

[suburbannature]

1 minute ago, By the Water said:

The rest being Lover, folklore, evermore and Midnights so not quite 7 albums. And none of them have ever left the BB200 so if you don’t like the receipt posted you can add all their units yourself. Anyway, the coping is insane

Y'all live on your own planet it's wild. @ me when they're recertified with the numbers you claim 

 

 

[By the Water]

2 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

Y'all live on your own planet it's wild. @ me when they're recertified with the numbers you claim 

 

 

Tell us how much each of them sold then. You clearly are know more than everyone else, Billboard included

[Klein]

As for Lover and Midnights, they'll both surpass 6M units next week.

 

Lover (as of last week): -> 5,925,000 + 52,000 = 5,977,000

Midnights:

Only 2 albums left "without proof" for the estimates @By the Water made previously.

[Feanor]

On 10/23/2023 at 11:10 PM, suburbannature said:

I'd say she's under-certified by about 4-5 million

On 10/23/2023 at 11:30 PM, By the Water said:

That's about 25M units right there and before you ask, most of these numbers are from Billboard, what you posted are pure sales

 

Taylor's eligible album certifications, all based on data by Billboard/Luminate, RIAA, HDD or (for 'evermore' only) UKMix:

(Sources all linked)

 

'Taylor Swift' → 7xP*

(*no recent figures, so it's the most recent RIAA certification, from Dec. 2017)

'Fearless' - 10.7M units → 10xP

(as of Oct. 2022)

'Speak Now' - 7.8M units → 7xP

(as of May 2023)

'RED' - 7.6M units → 7xP

(as of Oct. 2022)

'1989' - 12.3M units → 12xP

(as of Aug. 2023)

'reputation' - 7.0M units → 7xP

(as of Feb. 2024)

'Lover' - 7.2M units → 7xP

(as of Apr. 2024)

'folklore' - 5.7M units → 5xP

(as of Jan. 2024)

'evermore' - 0.57M + 1.22M + 0.57M + 0.68M + 0.42M = 3.5M units → 3xP

(2020 + 2021 + 2022 + 2023 + 2024 units)

'Midnights' - 7.2M units → 7xP

(as of Apr. 2024)

'THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT' - 4.5M units → 4xP

(as of June 2024)

 

'The Holiday Collection EP' → 1xP*

(*no recent figures, so it's the most recent RIAA certification, from Jul. 2018)

'Fearless (Taylor's Version)' - 1.8M units → 1xP

(as of Jul. 2023)

'RED (Taylor's Version)' - 4.5M units → 4xP

(as of Apr. 2024)

'Speak Now (Taylor's Version)' - 1.78M + 0.45M =  2.2M units → 2xP

(2023 + 2024 units)

'1989 (Taylor's Version)' - 0.4M (pre-release units) + 3.4M = 3.8M units → 3xP

(as of Apr. 2024)

 

This is as official as it gets, and even then many of these numbers are outdated by months or years. Still, even from what we know publicly, her eligible album certifications add up to 87M units. She's undercertified by 36M units, not just "4-5M".

Afaik, RIAA also doesn't differentiate between premium and free streams, unlike Luminate, so all of these are actually even higher with RIAA's formula (as evidenced by 'Fearless' being Diamond in 2017, but only hitting 10M units in the 2020s).

 

Edited June 29 by Feanor

[WildHeart]

 

2 hours ago, suburbannature said:

It says pure in the parentheses for the first list. 
 

you’re majorly inflating some of these. Be fr

 

1 hour ago, By the Water said:

Speak Now: Swift’s third album has earned a total of 7.8 million equivalent album units in the U.S. through Apr. 27, according to Luminate.

1989: To date, no Swift album has earned more equivalent album units – which comprise album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA) – than 1989, with 12.3 million units, according to Luminate.

Reputation: Reputation has earned 5.1M equivalent albums to date

Fearless TV and Red TV:  Swift released Fearless (Taylor’s Version), the first album in her re-recording project, on Apr. 9, 2021. Since that date, the new version of her sophomore album has earned 1.81 million equivalent album units, according to Luminate. Red (Taylor’s Version) has done even better: since its release on Nov. 12, 2021, the re-recording has earned 3.32 million equivalent album units

The rest have never left the BB200 so their units are easy to track. See this thread alone. And this for Lover

 

Just because you can't accept these numbers doesn't mean that they're inflated

 

1 hour ago, Klein said:

As for Lover and Midnights, they'll both surpass 6M units next week.

 

Lover (as of last week): -> 5,925,000 + 52,000 = 5,977,000

Midnights:

Only 2 albums left "without proof" for the estimates @By the Water made previously.

 

26 minutes ago, Feanor said:

 

Taylor's eligible album certifications, all based on data by Billboard/Luminate, RIAA, HDD or (for 'evermore' only) UKMix:

(Sources all linked)

 

'Taylor Swift' → 7xP*

(*no recent figures, so it's the most recent RIAA certification, from Dec. 2017)

'Fearless' - 10.7M units → 10xP

(as of Oct. 2022)

'Speak Now' - 7.8M units → 7xP

(as of May 2023)

'RED' - 7.6M units → 7xP

(as of Oct. 2022)

'1989' - 12.3M units → 12xP

(as of Aug. 2023)

'reputation' - 5.1M + 0.8M = 5.9M units → 5xP

(as of Oct. 2022 + units this year)

'Lover' - 5.9M units → 6xP

(up to date, will hit 6M this week)

'folklore' - 5.0M units → 5xP

(as of Sep. 2023)

'evermore' - 0.57M + 1.22M + 0.57M + 0.68M = 3.0M units → 3xP

(2020 units + 2021 units + 2022 units + 2023 units)

'Midnights' - 6.0M units → 6xP

(up to date, will hit 6M this week)

 

'The Holiday Collection EP' → 1xP*

(*no recent figures, so it's the most recent RIAA certification, from Jul. 2018)

'Fearless (TV)' - 1.8M units → 1xP

(as of Jul. 2023)

'RED (TV)' - 3.3M units → 3xP

(as of Jul. 2023)

'Speak Now (TV)' - 1.4M units → 1xP

(up to date)

 

This is as official as it gets, and even then many of these numbers are outdated by months or years. Still, even from what we know publicly, her eligible album certifications add up to 74M units. She's undercertified by over 20M units, not just "4-5M".

Afaik, RIAA also doesn't differentiate between premium and free streams, unlike Luminate, so all of these are actually even higher with RIAA's formula (as evidenced by 'Fearless' being Diamond in 2017, but only hitting 10M units in the 2020s).

 

The back to back clocks

 

Denying Bilboard's numbers to cope is crazy nnn 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Artistofthedecade

[Saintlor]

Will every single Taylor album (aside from Evermore) end up going diamond (maybe including TV sales)?