charts discussion Final predictions (10/28): Taylor #1, 60+pts ahead of #2

[byzantium]

Legend has it, every time Taylor releases a remix, ATRL user Jaxxxon loses an hour of sleep.  

[spree]

i'd rather Cruel Summer get it over any Drake song that no one knows and will be forgotten.

[KOMH]

7 minutes ago, JaXXXon said:

Willow is a flop lol. Just because it's getting streams from a well-streamed album doesn't mean it wasn't a flop single. As for Stupid Love, it was a disliked song upon arrival which is why it got a Top 5 debut and then plummeted. Willow would've performed the same without its discounts (Top 5 debut, then plummet). 

Willow had multiple days at #1 on US Spotify and considerable streaming success to fall back on, unlike Stupid Love which bombed out of the top 25 in its 2nd week, never to recover again, despite a series of deals (Apple Music, radio), Times Square billboards, and a #1 TTH placement to top it all off. Willow ended up charting for 20 weeks and is currently outstreaming each of Gaga's last 3 albums as a stand alone track.   Taylor has about 200 songs outstreaming Stupid Love right now. Have some shame!

 

 

OT: Here comes another solo #1 in the last 10 years. Not everybody has that to their credit!

[Iñakifan]

Oh, I love this. Cruel Summer is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, summer hits of 2023 and totally deserves it. It would also make sense for it to hit #1 a week after the concert movie premiere.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Iñakifan

[wastedpotential]

1 hour ago, JaXXXon said:

Willow is a flop lol. Just because it's getting streams from a well-streamed album doesn't mean it wasn't a flop single. As for Stupid Love, it was a disliked song upon arrival which is why it got a Top 5 debut and then plummeted. Willow would've performed the same without its discounts (Top 5 debut, then plummet). 

I'm sure it would shock you to learn that Willow was one of the 10 most played songs of 2021 on both Adult Top 40 and Adult Contemporary radio in the US, on top of its 900k daily streams (and nearly 700 million total Spotify streams) after two years and ten months. It did have an incredibly unfortunate second week, but it still spent 10 weeks in the top 30, the same number as Rain On Me (and the same number of weeks that Stupid Love had on the Hot 100 in general). No one was confusing Willow for a diamond certified hit, but it was not a flop single, and has been 3x platinum eligible for almost a year at this point. 

[Maroonx]

Some of yoll are getting way too deep into this this argument about organic/inorganic hits. 

 

If yoll invested the time to stream ya favs instead replying to this topic you'd have true organic hits. 

 

k bye for now x

[spree]

1 hour ago, wastedpotential said:

I'm sure it would shock you to learn that Willow was one of the 10 most played songs of 2021 on both Adult Top 40 and Adult Contemporary radio in the US, on top of its 900k daily streams (and nearly 700 million total Spotify streams) after two years and ten months. It did have an incredibly unfortunate second week, but it still spent 10 weeks in the top 30, the same number as Rain On Me (and the same number of weeks that Stupid Love had on the Hot 100 in general). No one was confusing Willow for a diamond certified hit, but it was not a flop single, and has been 3x platinum eligible for almost a year at this point. 

Top 10 most played on AC and Hot AC isn't saying too much since the audience is very low.  And "The Man" is getting 869k daily streams and that was definitely a flop.  Taylor just has an incredibly huge fanbase, so her numbers are inflated.  If you're insinuating Willow is in the same tier as Rain on Me you're incorrect.  It's a forgotten #1 that got there with dozens of gimmicks and discounts.  We all know that.

[lukascharts]

6 hours ago, kexin said:

they’re called predictions for a reason, Lol

Literally anybody can make and post Hot 100 predictions. What separates good predictions from bad predictions is whether they are accurate. Which Winston's clearly is not.

 

Even people who don't even do predictions posted in this thread saying Winston's prediction wasn't accurate and correctly assumed that the gap was larger.

[lukascharts]

Returning back on topic,

 

With how fast the new versions shot up on the iTunes chart, I think they will sell extremely well. Cruel Summer is definitely locked for #1 and it's probably not even going to be close.

[Cloröx]

6 hours ago, byzantium said:

Legend has it, every time Taylor releases a remix, ATRL user Jaxxxon loses an hour of sleep.  

And we love seeing them suffering 

[Iminmysluttyera]

I’m glad I became a swifty in time to purchase this and contribute to its legendary chart run! 

[vale9001]

it's always the same story.

Everyone release remixes. They are mad Taylor is the only one can sell them with this high volume

Edited October 19, 2023 by vale9001

[Mr. Duff]

She's so going #1 now  

I love the live version and the remix, both are great versions of the song and add something new and interesting!

[Ger]

Very happy of this outcome  

[Bosque]

9 hours ago, JaXXXon said:

So instead of letting this single smash organically, her fanbase will be happier with inorganic chart manipulations with that cheap discount and a new version of the same song giving Willow teas after ya'll specifically said Taylor isn't obsessed with charts? 

 

This song had a very impressive chart run, is more popular than whatever Taylor has released since 2014 and your greed ruined that just because you and her couldn't handle that a #2 could be more impressive than a desperate #1 in the long run. 

 

Mama please, the fans and GP love this song and the fans are ecstatic that it will get a well deserved #1, 4 years after release. It is never that deep

 

 

 

[Clauss]

Wow. 

A 2-2-1 punch era (we don’t claim the man) 

[Green]

Imagine saying Cruel Summer is not organic

 

Besides it was predicted to be #1 by one point before those remixes were released

[Enrique523]

10 hours ago, JaXXXon said:

Willow is a flop lol. Just because it's getting streams from a well-streamed album doesn't mean it wasn't a flop single. As for Stupid Love, it was a disliked song upon arrival which is why it got a Top 5 debut and then plummeted. Willow would've performed the same without its discounts (Top 5 debut, then plummet). 

What does that make Gaga's entire last album then if it's still doing better numbers daily than the entirety of Chromatica? 

[LCTV]

I hope Taylor releases a JAZZ album just to trigger a certain 'group' of positivity spreaders.

[Enrique523]

7 hours ago, spree said:

Top 10 most played on AC and Hot AC isn't saying too much since the audience is very low.  And "The Man" is getting 869k daily streams and that was definitely a flop.  Taylor just has an incredibly huge fanbase, so her numbers are inflated.  If you're insinuating Willow is in the same tier as Rain on Me you're incorrect.  It's a forgotten #1 that got there with dozens of gimmicks and discounts.  We all know that.

Here we go again with the "GP don't care about Taylor, she only has a big fanbase" conspiracy theories

 

Also, Gaga's entire career has been based on gimmicks and discounts. I mean we all remember how Born This Way got its 1M+ debut week 

[slw84]

Love this for Taylor 

 

swifties isn’t there something 13 related for when this hits #1 

[Badgalbriel]

6 hours ago, spree said:

Top 10 most played on AC and Hot AC isn't saying too much since the audience is very low.  And "The Man" is getting 869k daily streams and that was definitely a flop.  Taylor just has an incredibly huge fanbase, so her numbers are inflated.  If you're insinuating Willow is in the same tier as Rain on Me you're incorrect.  It's a forgotten #1 that got there with dozens of gimmicks and discounts.  We all know that.

Are we pretindign ROM is not a forgotten #1? 

[PoisonPill]

Not that pressed user claiming this isn’t an organic hit, about the 4 year old album track that topped global streaming charts, became the years 2nd longest running pop radio #1,  reached #3 Hot 100 and was tracking for #1 this week, all before any push from her team

Edited October 19, 2023 by PoisonPill

[Ratviolo]

Swifties stomping on Gaga’s neck at the first chance they get over… a user with 50 posts who’s 100% not even a liddo? Get ******* real ffs and enjoy your fave’s success

 

spree is also anything but a liddo

Edited October 19, 2023 by Ratviolo

[Miley Cyrus]

this song has a lot of gluten in it methinks