movie Avatar: The Way of Water | Billions: 2 | Oscar Noms: 4 | Best Picture Noms: 1

[Reginald]

Cruises past Tom's Top Gun Maverick for the 2022 box office?  I love to see it, and suddenly stan ha!

Any movie named after Ava's fanbase has to be good 

[mystery]

The Way of Water if it grossed the same amount from Tuesday onwards as the other films (includes 4th Tuesday numbers of each movie):

Titanic - 919,351,713 - 2.3m
Avatar - 829,848,477 - 5m
Top Gun: Maverick - 759,094,643 - 5.9m
Spider-Man: No Way Home - 652,329,905 - 2.7m
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 641,923,340 - 3.8m
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 631,892,230 - 2.3m
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring - 603,707,503 - 1.3m
Avengers: Endgame - 602,048,293 - 2.9m
Avengers: Infinity War - 598,540,578 - 2.8m
Jumanji: The Next Level - 597,433,329 - 2.5m
---------------------------------------------------------------- FLOOR (less than this is not happening)
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - 583,566,915 - 1.1m
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - 575,235,923 - 1.1m
Rogue One - 571,627,641 - 2.5m
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 564,436,801 - 2.3m
Aquaman - 564,530,339 - 2.2m
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 557,393,066 - 1.5m
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 555,001,898 - 1.8m
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - 547,544,728 - 1.5m
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - 538,043,912 - 1m
Avatar: The Way of Water - 525,406,779 - 4.3m

The Way of Water is estimated for a 4.3m Tuesday which puts it at:

1. Top Gun: Maverick - 5.9m
2. Avatar - 5m
3. Avatar: The Way of Water - 4.3m
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 3.8m
5. Avengers: Endgame - 2.9m

Choose your fighter! I personally feel it is comfortably aiming for a 650m - 700m window.

Edited January 11, 2023 by mystery

[X~MoviePoP]

TWOW is a much more cooler looking movie than avatar. 

 

[mystery]

Lets go!

[rivers]

8 hours ago, GraceRandolph said:

Who here prefers Avatar (2009) and who here prefers Avatar: The Way of Water (2022)? I'm team TWOW.

TWOW. It is way more immersive and made me care about Pandora and the characters. The first movie was just okay but now I’m invested. 

[BNF91]

Tuesday domestic still rising. $4.6M. $525.7M total

 

Overseas still raking it in. $14M Tuesday OS.

 

Altogether, a nearly $19M Tuesday brings the global total to $1.75B

Edited January 11, 2023 by BNF91

[BNF91]

42 minutes ago, mystery said:

Lets go!

Good increase. Distancing itself from TFA and NWH again

[BNF91]

Think I will finally go see TWOW tonight or Thursday. Been waiting for the theatres to get less busy.

[MrPeanut]

On 1/9/2023 at 5:35 PM, Monster Megamind said:

He will definitely get an oscar nom

Snubbed by DGA, he is not getting in. :(

[Space Cowboy]

Avatar >>>
 

But TWOW is excellent 

[MrPeanut]

TWOW > Avatar

[X~MoviePoP]

12 minutes ago, MrPeanut said:

Snubbed by DGA, he is not getting in. :(

What!!!!!!! Omg

[mystery]

@Butters Can we have an update to the title since it is now #7 all-time?

[BNF91]

Now that we are getting further into the movie's run, it gets a lot easier to tell where it can finish. 

 

With Tuesday domestic being 1.63x bigger than NWH's we can extrapolate that A2 will make $213M more by maintaining that gap and finish at $738M. I think it will shrink, but A2 will still make another $175M at least, to cross $700M domestic. #1 crown is still a toss-up. 

 

OS weekdays are still so strong for the holidays being over. If it hits the $1.33B I estimate by Sunday then we can safely say that $1.5B+ OS is easily locked. 

 

Therefore I would say at this point $2.2B is pretty much locked. Can The Way of Water put enough distance between it and Titanic to survive the re-release and retain its #3 all-time worldwide spot in the end? 

[mystery]

2 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

Now that we are getting further into the movie's run, it gets a lot easier to tell where it can finish. 

 

With Tuesday domestic being 1.63x bigger than NWH's we can extrapolate that A2 will make $213M more by maintaining that gap and finish at $738M. I think it will shrink, but A2 will still make another $175M at least, to cross $700M domestic. #1 crown is still a toss-up. 

 

OS weekdays are still so strong for the holidays being over. If it hits the $1.33B I estimate by Sunday then we can safely say that $1.5B+ OS is easily locked. 

 

Therefore I would say at this point $2.2B is pretty much locked. Can The Way of Water put enough distance between it and Titanic to survive the re-release and retain its #3 all-time worldwide spot in the end? 

I think 2.1b is locked but anything higher gets harder to tell. What I think might happen is that it outgrosses Titanic, Titanic surpasses it again with the re-release and then Avatar takes it again with a China re-release in 2024 before the third one.

As for Avatar 3, I am sure that it will outgross this one and have a 2.4b - 2.6b window.

[X~MoviePoP]

I think this will end at 2.15 billion

[BNF91]

You guys are saying that it's legs will collapse then if you are pegging it at $2.1B.. that's a mediocre $200M more off what is about to be a $115-120M global 5th weekend, with another month until any sort of competition. It would have to totally fall off its pace quite soon for that to happen. Not only start making less than NWH, but considerably less. Just doesn't add up. 

Edited January 11, 2023 by BNF91

[mystery]

10 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

You guys are saying that it's legs will collapse then if you are pegging it at $2.1B.. that's a mediocre $200M more off what is about to be a $115-120M global 5th weekend, with another month until any sort of competition. It would have to totally fall off its pace quite soon for that to happen. Not only start making less than NWH, but considerably less. Just doesn't add up. 

Oh personally I think it will be higher than that, 2.1b just seems like the guaranteed gross, the rest is where it will get interesting as more new releases come in mid February. If it does finish in the 2.1b range it will be very close to Titanic.

[BNF91]

I'm actually screaming at the idea of A2 finishing around $710-713M, and then snatching the 2022 domestic crown from Top Gun Maverick when it gets it's re-release, whether that be in Sept 2023, or 2024 before A3, lmaooo. 

 

Also, Maoyan forecast for final Chinese total increased from $221M to $230M. Extension to Feb 14th projected to bring in an additional $4M. 

Edited January 11, 2023 by BNF91

[PMKARDASHIAN]

17 hours ago, GraceRandolph said:

Who here prefers Avatar (2009) and who here prefers Avatar: The Way of Water (2022)? I'm team TWOW.

Ugh TWOW was visually astonishing but I prefer the story and characters from 09 

[Nutitle]

A smash

 

[X~MoviePoP]

Whats the numberssss

[Donquizote]

PGA-nominated movie

[mystery]

6 minutes ago, Donquizote said:

PGA-nominated movie

Acclaim!

[X~MoviePoP]

45 minutes ago, Donquizote said:

PGA-nominated movie