Communion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 (edited) 53 minutes ago, Relampago. said: Here to drop a quick POV after canvassing again this weekend in AZ Let me caveat all of this by saying, I am just one person with one point of view out of many, but these are my true observations. I have to say, standing by and watching the bickering in here has made me realize… yes. A lot of you do seem somewhat out of touch with what's happening on the ground. Perhaps it's just the difference in the areas of where we live but I can affirm that the sentiments with the people I've been talking to are so far removed from the discussions happening in here. I think this thread is too deep in the weeds to really have a good view of what's going on. First, let me start off by saying, alot of people are very much voting out of fear. There is very little motivation outside of that. Both for Trump and Harris voters. Trump voters are scared about their income and the "rising crime" narrative. Harris voters are scared of the government corruption and bodily autonomy (even outside of abortion/IVF). BOTH are terrified of the level of division and hatred in this country. Second, I'd like to touch on the bipartisan comments because Harris has pushed for that a lot recently and it's a part of what we talk about to these voters. Let me say straight up: It's generally very well received. Not because either side actually cares to have the other side weigh in on decisions, but because again… division is a huge concern of theirs and they appreciate Harris reaching across the aisle. Maybe people here feel like that's not a good thing, but I only talked to one person out of maybe… 40-50 that had reservations about it. Third, these people just… do not care about the things that are constantly argued about in here, from Palestine to Medicare. In regards to Palestine, they are far more concerned about what's happening here in the US. This one older man said this that stuck with me: "Why do people make such a big deal about wars when there's a war brewing in this country?" in regards to Trump assassination attempts. Obviously pretty exaggerated, but a lot of people are way more concerned about the events unfolding here than what's happening across the world. They also have a lot of faith in their medical care honestly and are scared to lose it because they don't trust the government to run all of their medical care. There's a lot of education that needs to be done, because they support the concept but lack the trust in the government to give up the care they have now. And last… the polls honestly should just shut the **** up. I'm a bit fed up with them. They're honestly not giving any useful info and only continue to cause more division and fighting than what's necessary. Until they can figure out how to get more people to respond, all they're doing is polling the most partisan people who aren't exactly representative of the country at large. Also, when you see polls saying "55% of people support MASS DEPORTATION!"… I spoke to many people who agree with that but they don't understand the details or what that even means. Many assumed it would just be for criminals or gangs, not the 70 year old doña they live next to or the elotero their kids get snacks from every day. A lot of us here are way too informed to the point that we see data without consideration for who's answering these questions. Blue MAGA and MAGA are not the majority in this country, very, very, very far from it. I think this thread would do well to remember that going into election day. Come what may, but people need to stop making enemies because there is a real hope in this country regardless of who wins, it's the loud, uncompromising voices causing noisy chaos that are hurting us the most. Sister, I do want to say I think this perspective is great to have and it's great that you're talking to people in your community. I just want to gently push back on your other comments, in that much criticisms over her bipartisanship comments comes from data on the actual median of the country. It's great you're posting from the ground, but also, with that means you're posting from the ground... in Arizona. A state that two cycles before 2020 was being won by Republicans with almost double-digits. A state that Biden himself only won by 0.30%. I think no leftist fails to understand that Arizona is a conservative, "centrist" state.. but by the same token, it's also measurably more conservative than the average state that the Democrats can normally and should win in order to take the presidency. Arizona itself is even more conservative-coded than its neighbor of Nevada, for example. Which is what I think is important to remember. "The people here don't care if she signals towards liking Republicans". Well, yes, but most Arizonians are not deeply historical Democrats. Demographics in AZ do not favor Democrats nor the kind of coalition politics Dems are known for. It's why I joke about making Wyoming blue, like... sure, any state can be flipped blue if we just adopt whatever policies they like, but that inevitably hits a wall. A state that Dems have only won 2/12 elections (Arizona) should less guide the center of the party than a state Dems have won 9/12 times. (ex: Wisconsin). Edited October 13 by Communion 3
Relampago. Posted October 13 Posted October 13 14 minutes ago, Blade said: I know it's such a small sample, but after 2 canvassing rounds how are you feeling on the ground for Arizona? Lean Harris or Lean Trump? Also, have you had any luck switching an undecided or is everyone pretty settled into who they want to vote for? My gut feeling is probably Lean Trump. But the caveat to that is many of them were pretty unsure if they actually wanted to go through with it, but they had little faith that Harris would turn things around from Biden (a fatal flaw I can agree with in her campaign). However.. nearly everyone was more interested in Harris's policies than Trump's. And I'd also like to add in the caveat that there were very few undecided people, but the "decided" Trump voters were not entirely sold on Trump and leaned towards voting for him begrudgingly or felt they'd just leave the presidential option blank. Harris's supporters or people I was able to convince to lean towards her were way more likely to stick with her. I didn't get any Harris supporters feeling unsure about her, they were all very enthusiastic to support her and were sure they would show up to vote. So… I definitely felt there were marginally more "Trump" voters (like, just over half? It was VERY split) but they were way more wishy washy with him, while Harris supporters felt much more reliable. I was able to convince a few women to actually vote for Harris because they did not know who they voted for isn't public knowledge. A couple didn't know IVF was also being threatened as well. Ultimately I think it'll really just come down to turnout, and if that's the case I think Harris might have a slight edge, but it really depends. 5 6
Blade Posted October 13 Posted October 13 2 minutes ago, Relampago. said: My gut feeling is probably Lean Trump. But the caveat to that is many of them were pretty unsure if they actually wanted to go through with it, but they had little faith that Harris would turn things around from Biden (a fatal flaw I can agree with in her campaign). However.. nearly everyone was more interested in Harris's policies than Trump's. And I'd also like to add in the caveat that there were very few undecided people, but the "decided" Trump voters were not entirely sold on Trump and leaned towards voting for him begrudgingly or felt they'd just leave the presidential option blank. Harris's supporters or people I was able to convince to lean towards her were way more likely to stick with her. I didn't get any Harris supporters feeling unsure about her, they were all very enthusiastic to support her and were sure they would show up to vote. So… I definitely felt there were marginally more "Trump" voters (like, just over half? It was VERY split) but they were way more wishy washy with him, while Harris supporters felt much more reliable. I was able to convince a few women to actually vote for Harris because they did not know who they voted for isn't public knowledge. A couple didn't know IVF was also being threatened as well. Ultimately I think it'll really just come down to turnout, and if that's the case I think Harris might have a slight edge, but it really depends. Thanks for the reply! What's important is if this Trump leaners that want to leave it blank or are less enthusiastic is if they voted for Trump in 2020 and not just regular low propensity voters. Republicans feeling disillusioned is great. 3
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 13 Posted October 13 2 minutes ago, Relampago. said: My gut feeling is probably Lean Trump. But the caveat to that is many of them were pretty unsure if they actually wanted to go through with it, but they had little faith that Harris would turn things around from Biden (a fatal flaw I can agree with in her campaign). However.. nearly everyone was more interested in Harris's policies than Trump's. And I'd also like to add in the caveat that there were very few undecided people, but the "decided" Trump voters were not entirely sold on Trump and leaned towards voting for him begrudgingly or felt they'd just leave the presidential option blank. Harris's supporters or people I was able to convince to lean towards her were way more likely to stick with her. I didn't get any Harris supporters feeling unsure about her, they were all very enthusiastic to support her and were sure they would show up to vote. So… I definitely felt there were marginally more "Trump" voters (like, just over half? It was VERY split) but they were way more wishy washy with him, while Harris supporters felt much more reliable. I was able to convince a few women to actually vote for Harris because they did not know who they voted for isn't public knowledge. A couple didn't know IVF was also being threatened as well. Ultimately I think it'll really just come down to turnout, and if that's the case I think Harris might have a slight edge, but it really depends. Thanks for sharing your feedback and for the work you're doing....I do feeel like ultimately, this election will come down to turnout 2 1
Vermillion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 I have to echo @Communion's reframing of Arizona as it reflects the Dem coalition as someone with friends and relatives in Arizona who now lives in ultimate swing state Virginia (even though it's foolishly framed as blue) but also thank @Relampago. for their service after being threatened with a hunting rifle while canvassing in Upstate New York in the mid-2010's (pre-Trump, mind you). 2 3
shelven Posted October 13 Posted October 13 20 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I was able to convince a few women to actually vote for Harris because they did not know who they voted for isn't public knowledge. Shy Harris voter theory is real!! In all seriousness, this point is fascinating and a really good reminder of just how low information some voters can be when we vaguely refer to "low information voters." Thanks for the work you're doing on the ground and for sharing these really interesting anecdotes with us 7 1
Chemist Posted October 13 Posted October 13 7 hours ago, Tovitov said: Some posters are going after Harris for swinging right on Immigration when the country has swung even further right apparently it's literally ignorance of the electorate and terrible messaging from the democrats
FameFatale Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Looks like another guy was arrested outside the Coachella rally with firearms and a fake VIP badge. Right wing media is running it as a third attempt but the entire thing is fishy. The guy's socials are all full on MAGA and has pics with everyone in that world. He was released on bail too. 2
Lightbringer007 Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 hour ago, Relampago. said: Here to drop a quick POV after canvassing again this weekend in AZ Let me caveat all of this by saying, I am just one person with one point of view out of many, but these are my true observations. I have to say, standing by and watching the bickering in here has made me realize… yes. A lot of you do seem somewhat out of touch with what's happening on the ground. Perhaps it's just the difference in the areas of where we live but I can affirm that the sentiments with the people I've been talking to are so far removed from the discussions happening in here. I think this thread is too deep in the weeds to really have a good view of what's going on. First, let me start off by saying, alot of people are very much voting out of fear. There is very little motivation outside of that. Both for Trump and Harris voters. Trump voters are scared about their income and the "rising crime" narrative. Harris voters are scared of the government corruption and bodily autonomy (even outside of abortion/IVF). BOTH are terrified of the level of division and hatred in this country. Second, I'd like to touch on the bipartisan comments because Harris has pushed for that a lot recently and it's a part of what we talk about to these voters. Let me say straight up: It's generally very well received. Not because either side actually cares to have the other side weigh in on decisions, but because again… division is a huge concern of theirs and they appreciate Harris reaching across the aisle. Maybe people here feel like that's not a good thing, but I only talked to one person out of maybe… 40-50 that had reservations about it. Third, these people just… do not care about the things that are constantly argued about in here, from Palestine to Medicare. In regards to Palestine, they are far more concerned about what's happening here in the US. This one older man said this that stuck with me: "Why do people make such a big deal about wars when there's a war brewing in this country?" in regards to Trump assassination attempts. Obviously pretty exaggerated, but a lot of people are way more concerned about the events unfolding here than what's happening across the world. They also have a lot of faith in their medical care honestly and are scared to lose it because they don't trust the government to run all of their medical care. There's a lot of education that needs to be done, because they support the concept but lack the trust in the government to give up the care they have now. And last… the polls honestly should just shut the **** up. I'm a bit fed up with them. They're honestly not giving any useful info and only continue to cause more division and fighting than what's necessary. Until they can figure out how to get more people to respond, all they're doing is polling the most partisan people who aren't exactly representative of the country at large. Also, when you see polls saying "55% of people support MASS DEPORTATION!"… I spoke to many people who agree with that but they don't understand the details or what that even means. Many assumed it would just be for criminals or gangs, not the 70 year old doña they live next to or the elotero their kids get snacks from every day. A lot of us here are way too informed to the point that we see data without consideration for who's answering these questions. Blue MAGA and MAGA are not the majority in this country, very, very, very far from it. I think this thread would do well to remember that going into election day. Come what may, but people need to stop making enemies because there is a real hope in this country regardless of who wins, it's the loud, uncompromising voices causing noisy chaos that are hurting us the most. now clock that mfing tea! 1
Elusive Chanteuse Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 hour ago, Relampago. said: Again, some of these woman were pretty sold on Trump, but you'd be hard pressed to convince me they're evil people. True but sometimes I think If they support evil people maybe they are in some regardless of how nice they present themselves.
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 13 Posted October 13 (edited) I don't get the big deal about saying you would have a Republican in your administration? Trump/Vance also said they'd have a democrat in their administration. And many candidates have done and said the same thing in past elections. It's really not controversial at all. Edited October 13 by RihRihGirrrl 1
Relampago. Posted October 13 Posted October 13 46 minutes ago, Communion said: Sister, I do want to say I think this perspective is great to have and it's great that you're talking to people in your community. I just want to gently push back on your other comments, in that much criticisms over her bipartisanship comments comes from data on the actual median of the country. It's great you're posting from the ground, but also, with that means you're posting from the ground... in Arizona. A state that two cycles before 2020 was being won by Republicans with almost double-digits. A state that Biden himself only won by 0.30%. I think no leftist fails to understand that Arizona is a conservative, "centrist" state.. but by the same token, it's also measurably more conservative than the average state that the Democrats can normally and should win in order to take the presidency. Arizona itself is even more conservative-coded than its neighbor of Nevada, for example. Which is what I think is important to remember. "The people here don't care if she signals towards liking Republicans". Well, yes, but most Arizonians are not deeply historical Democrats. Demographics in AZ do not favor Democrats nor the kind of coalition politics Dems are known for. It's why I joke about making Wyoming blue, like... sure, any state can be flipped blue if we just adopt whatever policies they like, but that inevitably hits a wall. A state that Dems have only won 2/12 elections (Arizona) should less guide the center of the party than a state Dems have won 9/12 times. (ex: Wisconsin). I wrote out a longer post to this but I think my thoughts can generally be summed up with this: I'm canvassing in heavily Spanish-speaking areas of Phoenix (South Phoenix, Tolleson, Avondale, West Phoenix, etc.), largely areas would would have been voting for Bernie in 2020. The people I'm speaking to aren't representative of the overall centrist feeling in AZ. They're the voters progressives speak about reaching out to, they're just not online. And they weren't saying "WOO! Yes! Republicans in the Harris admin let's go!!" It was more like "Oh, I appreciate she's trying to settle the tensions between parties." I feel that's an important distinction that singular questions and singular answers from polls can't fully paint a picture of. 3
Tovitov Posted October 13 Posted October 13 22 minutes ago, FameFatale said: Looks like another guy was arrested outside the Coachella rally with firearms and a fake VIP badge. Right wing media is running it as a third attempt but the entire thing is fishy. The guy's socials are all full on MAGA and has pics with everyone in that world. He was released on bail too. Yeah, the Police Department that arrested him spoke way too soon and it ended up just being a MAGA gun nut. 1
Communion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Relampago. said: My point was not that people are for bipartisanship though. It's that people are okay with it because they see it as a return to times when politicians were able to discuss things rather than mudsling and be stuck in perpetual gridlock. You're then not discussing the same thing that leftists are criticizing, no? Which @Bloo has touched on. A rejection of hyper-partisanship is in itself not an endorsement of bipartisanship as understood in the crafting of policy. You're saying you take away that flaunting bipartisanship is good because the voters you speak with don't like hyper-partisanship. You wouldn't be allowed to, but next time you speak to voters, ask them if they like what bipartisanship looks like in practice. When you're door-knocking, ask them if they are fans of the bipartisan tax cuts for the rich Harris will be implementing. Ask them if they are fans of the bipartisan spending bills to fund foreign wars abroad that Harris will be signing off on, etc. You mention gridlock, but it's understood that Congress has historically low approvals *because* Dems have stopped seizing power and will not pass anything without the most conservative centrists on the other side. Voters don't like that. Are you asking voters if they liked the bipartisan gutting of the child tax credit under Biden? 26 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I'm not saying we should just throw the data out the window either, but one should stop and ask themselves why a political campaign wouldn't just "listen to the data!" Perhaps because… there is more to it? I don't think my anecdotal evidence is anymore meaningful than polls are, but if it were that easy.. then Democrats would just do that? It would be very easy to not have Republicans in a Harris administration. This is the same argument @Jackson stumbled on that ignores the elephant in the room: politicians act illogically because they can be corrupted by the money of donors. Majority of Americans don't like sending money abroad for war. Weapons sales still get bipartisan legislation because Lockheed Martin has deep pockets & lobbyists. 26 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I'd also like to point out that I am not being sent to affluent suburbs like Scottsdale, Chandler, Gilbert, Paradise Valley, east Phoenix, etc. Given that I can speak Spanish, I'm being sent to areas in South Phoenix, Avondale, Tolleson, West Phoenix, etc. These voters are hardly centrist in the way you seem to think, it would be hard to even pin them down because they are so tuned out of politics with their daily life that they probably couldn't even define it themselves. Many of them didn't jump at the idea of a bipartisan administration, but understood that it was an olive branch that would hopefully ease the hyper-partisan political landscape we have now. These voters aren't the same as the overall electorate in Arizona which gets balanced out by areas like Prescott, Cottonwood, etc. Sis, the issue is I 100% trust your recollections are true, but it also feels like what you're saying to these voters is not entirely true in itself. Sure, voters will like it if you say Kamala's running to the right because she's actually rejecting hyper-partisanship. That sounds nice. Next time you canvas, can you tell the voters you speak with that Harris plans on bringing back family separations? And allowing people to be deported in just 6 hours? I think it would be important to see the difference in reactions of "Kamala wants to cut the nonsense" to "Kamala is planning to split up thousands of families". This is the kind of true-believer issue that causes partisans to inevitably come into conflict with leftists. Because you need to be a true believer to promote someone. Because of what I know of you, and that I understand you to be a good person, I don't think you'd be volunteering your time to someone you believe wanted to brutalize immigrants. The issue is that the actual policy Harris is trying to pass and push for would do just that. 26 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I also find it a bit… shortsighted to let places like Wisconsin guide the future of the Democratic Party and brush aside places like Arizona when Wisconsin represents demographics that are slowly declining (white and boomer populations), meanwhile Arizona represents one of the fastest growing metros in the US, has a large amount of young people due to the size of ASU and people moving in, and a large Latino population, the largest growing ethnic demographic in the US. This is where I once again have to ask the question: Is it not worth letting Republicans like Adam Kinzinger into impotent positions in the administration if it means potentially making gains elsewhere? Going by the below, Arizona is the most right-wing leaning swing state and Wisconsin + Michigan the most left-leaning. 1 hour ago, jakeisphat said: FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+3.3) -> Trump (+5.4) AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.3) -> Trump (+1.6) GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+0.8) NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.2) -> Trump (+0.7) NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.8) -> Harris (+0.8) PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.3) -> Harris (+0.8) MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.1) WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.1) NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.5) -> Harris (+7.0) VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+7.2) -> Harris (+8.3) Which is the issue mentioned before. Sure, stretch to snatch Arizona, but that should be your ceiling. Your maximum value. Harris is campaigning like Arizona is her center and that she delusionaly thinks Texas and Florida are somehow in play for her, even as she slips in the Rust Belt. Biden's bipartisan pandering wasn't as big of a deal because it was coupled with real, tangible progressive policy promises. Policy promises that Harris has completely evaded or even come out against, attacking many progressive left-wing stances common in blue states. Edited October 13 by Communion 3
midnightdawn Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Quote Here's a bit of advice to help maintain your sanity over the next few weeks until Election Day: Just ignore the polls. Unless you're a campaign professional or a gambler, you're probably looking at them for the same reason the rest of us are: to know who'll win. Or at least to feel like you know who'll win. But they just can't tell you that. Quote A week before the Harris-Trump debate in September, Harris led Trump by three points. Then came the debate, during which Trump turned in the second-worst debate performance in recent memory. Then came another attempted assassination of Trump, after the shooting at a campaign rally in July. Then the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Then Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon. Then came the vice-presidential debate. Then came a surprisingly strong jobs report. In this period, Harris released an 82-page booklet of policy proposals and Jack Smith, the special counsel prosecuting Trump in the Jan. 6 case, filed a 165-page brief adding new details of Trump's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. After all that, Harris is now leading Trump by … three points. Quote I suspect, if you're reading this column, you're not one of those voters. So give yourself a break. Step off the emotional roller coaster. If you want to do something to affect the election, donate money or time in a swing state — ideally to a state party or down-ballot race, where your efforts will go further — or volunteer in a local race. Call anyone in your life who might actually be undecided or might not be registered to vote or might not make it to the polls. And then let go. There's nothing more you can do, and nothing more the polls can do for you. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/opinion/polls-harris-trump.html 2
Relampago. Posted October 13 Posted October 13 16 minutes ago, Elusive Chanteuse said: True but sometimes I think If they support evil people maybe they are in some regardless of how nice they present themselves. Like I said in my longer post, a lot of them seemed to be voting out of fear, whether that be fear of people around them not being supportive of Harris, or fear of not being able to afford everyday goods, or fear of more division if Democrats win again… baseless or not it's hard to write these people off as wholly evil. It's really not better than others calling Harris voters evil because of the genocide issue. It's also why I know people are terrified that nearly half this country supports a very evil man.. but that doesn't necessarily translate to everyone of them being January 6ers. 2
dabunique Posted October 13 Posted October 13 5 hours ago, Vermillion said: @dabunique Between using tax payer's funds for anti abortion and anti weed measures, they are now intimidating voters who signed petitions. trust they r currently losing it. U kno these two amendments will pass with how DeSatan out here doin stunts and shows to prevent it tryin to start a movement on doctors who falsely tell da public dat this amendment takes away parental rights which it doesn't. 1 1
Lil Mistee Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 hour ago, Relampago. said: My gut feeling is probably Lean Trump. But the caveat to that is many of them were pretty unsure if they actually wanted to go through with it, but they had little faith that Harris would turn things around from Biden (a fatal flaw I can agree with in her campaign). However.. nearly everyone was more interested in Harris's policies than Trump's. And I'd also like to add in the caveat that there were very few undecided people, but the "decided" Trump voters were not entirely sold on Trump and leaned towards voting for him begrudgingly or felt they'd just leave the presidential option blank. Harris's supporters or people I was able to convince to lean towards her were way more likely to stick with her. I didn't get any Harris supporters feeling unsure about her, they were all very enthusiastic to support her and were sure they would show up to vote. So… I definitely felt there were marginally more "Trump" voters (like, just over half? It was VERY split) but they were way more wishy washy with him, while Harris supporters felt much more reliable. I was able to convince a few women to actually vote for Harris because they did not know who they voted for isn't public knowledge. A couple didn't know IVF was also being threatened as well. Ultimately I think it'll really just come down to turnout, and if that's the case I think Harris might have a slight edge, but it really depends. Genuinely thank you for all you do. 6
anti-bitch Posted October 13 Posted October 13 19 minutes ago, dabunique said: Between using tax payer's funds for anti abortion and anti weed measures, they are now intimidating voters who signed petitions. trust they r currently losing it. U kno these two amendments will pass with how DeSatan out here doin stunts and shows to prevent it tryin to start a movement on doctors who falsely tell da public dat this amendment takes away parental rights which it doesn't. The "anti-woke" people will lose their sh*t if abortion rights pass in Florida. Overturning Roe v. Wade really backfired but Republicans don't want to admit it. 3
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