official chart H100 prediction: #21 BTS; #10 Bad at Love; #3 Perfect

[cuneytb]

5 minutes ago, alexanderao said:

A Google search shows that it came out last Friday. That means it won't debut until next week. The BB200 is revealed on Tuesday mornings, so you'll know next Tuesday.

Oh interesting. Thanks  

[BGood2Me]

2 hours ago, Mattyboy said:

I have:

 

1. Rockstar 483 (=)

2. Havana 467 (=)

 

If radio surges she can get it. 

[Mr. Loco]

8 hours ago, Enoch said:

ANY chances of gummo going 1

What's gummo?

[andthenwekiss]

On 28/11/2017 at 1:18 PM, Mark Rih said:

Halsey  

 

TWIL longevity  and the Xmas freeze is coming lol

whats the xmas freeze?

[Kyungsoowift]

1 minute ago, andthenwekiss said:

whats the xmas freeze?

An annual situation around December in which radio stations tend to play earlier hits on the year due to their own year-end countdown. Also holiday songs tend to be played more, since it’s holiday season, thus making Top 40 hits being on “freeze” as there was just limited room to grow

[Mark Rih]

7 minutes ago, andthenwekiss said:

whats the xmas freeze?

Spoiler

What Is The Christmas Freeze, What Does It Affect, and Why?
Written on December 11, 2014
Revised and updated on December 15, 2015

I'm writing this post because I think a lot of ATRL members are confused over not only what the Christmas freeze is, but also what songs it will affect and how it will affect them. Before I delve deep into the investigation, let's remind ourselves what the freeze is (from my brief definition below in the Glossary):

Christmas freeze - A period of time from late December to very early January when the vast majority of songs will stall because of the addition of holiday-themed songs to radio stations' playlists as well as the playing of stations' year-end countdowns (which cause older songs that were big hits during the year to increase and current songs to stall because they are not getting played as much). Often referred to simply as the freeze.

Let's examine the two major factors that cause the Christmas freeze to occur.

1) Christmas music. As Christmas Day approaches, most radio stations will begin to exponentially play more Christmas and holiday-related music. On AC radio, the switch to a full-on Christmas playlist can occur as early as late November, but AC is the exception to the rule for holiday songs. Most pop and HAC stations flip to a playlist with at least some Christmas music roughly one week before Christmas. However, this is not exact, and some stations may very well begin on December 15 or December 22.

So which songs are most adversely affected by the addition of Christmas songs to pop stations' playlists? The ones that are already getting played a lot or the ones that are just starting?

A station can only play so many songs per week, because it has to air a certain amount of commercials. So when Christmas music invades a pop radio station's playlist, it cuts into that amount. Imagine a station playing 1000 songs per week normally. At the beginning of the freeze, 900 of those might be regular pop songs and 100 holiday songs. But how can one tell whether the Christmas music is eating into the plays of the current hits (#1-#10 on the pop radio chart) or the plays of the fastest-rising hits (usually below #15)?

Let's examine some data from the 2013 freeze. On December 15, before the start of the freeze for most pop stations, here were the highest bullets for songs below #10:

Burn 1651
Say Something 1634
Team 1405
Story Of My Life 1126
Let Her Go 1051

And the bullets of the top 5 songs on pop radio:

The Monster 1974
Counting Stars 2184
Demons 43
Timber 1948
Wake Me Up -812

Let's see what happened to each song as the freeze took effect.

Bullets on December 24
Timber 2299 (+351)
Burn 1344 (-307) (-19%)
Team 1223 (-182) (-13%)
Say Something 1134 (-500) (-31%)
Story Of My Life 765 (-361) (-32%)
Let Her Go 729 (-322) (-31%)
Counting Stars 632 (-1552) (-71%)
The Monster 384 (-1590) (-81%)
Demons -356 (-399) (-90%)
Wake Me Up -951 (-139) (-17%)

Timber performed exceptionally well during the freeze and I consider it to be an outlier. Only the strongest pop radio hits can stay unaffected by the addition of Christmas music to playlists.

If we look at the changes in the songs' bullets, we notice that the songs that were hurt the most were the ones that were already on top and thus closer to peaking than the rising songs (although all of the rising songs were significantly affected as well). When songs approach their peak, their bullet dwindles anyway, and the freeze amplifies this effect by giving stations another reason to stop playing them. Another reason this happens is because the songs getting more plays on pop radio have more plays for Christmas songs to take away from them. The rising hits are less affected not only because the stations are not yet tired of playing them, but also because there are simply less plays to lose.

Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that the songs that are affected most by the addition of Christmas and holiday-themed songs to pop radio playlists are the songs that are the highest on the pop radio chart or are very close to peaking.

It turns out that every single one of the rising hits in this investigation went on to become a top 10 pop radio hit (only Let Her Go missed the top 5, but it hit #1 on HAC radio). There are very few cases where a song completely loses momentum during the freeze and never recovers.

2) Year-end countdowns. This is the second aspect of the Christmas freeze and is the reason why it lingers into early January. During the last week of December and the first week of January, the vast majority of stations will compile year-end lists (a Top 100 Songs is common) and play them in full on air multiple times. The effects of these countdowns make the Christmas freeze less straightforward and all the more interesting.

Because these countdowns are meant to encompass the whole year, many songs that have long since had their run on pop radio often make large gains during late December and early January. The bigger the song was, the more likely it is to be included on a station's countdown (and therefore more stations will play it), and the greater its gains will likely be.

For the rising songs that usually dodge the bullet of the holiday songs, the year-end countdowns throw a wrench into the equation. Usually, these songs will stall or decrease because they are not included in the countdowns.

Let's examine some more data from the 2013 freeze. Here are the 9 fastest-rising songs on December 26, after which holiday songs are generally not played anymore:

Fastest-Rising, Dec. 26

Dark Horse 1641
XO 1376
Timber 1030
Team 911
Pompeii 838
Say Something 762
Burn 754
Young Girls 644
Story Of My Life 462

Notice how those bullets have all decreased because of the holiday songs?

Here are some bullets of some of the biggest hits of 2013, which are likely to be played on the 2013 year-end countdowns:

Older Songs, Dec. 26

Radioactive 145
When I Was Your Man 111
We Can't Stop 40
Blurred Lines 1
Mirrors -15
Thrift Shop -123
Summertime Sadness -207
Holy Grail -262
Safe And Sound -301
Hold On, We're Going Home -830

Notice how none of these bullets don't indicate anything except for minor fluctuations with an overall slightly negative trend, which is extremely common for songs that are well past their peak. (except for HOWGH, which was not well past its peak)

Here are their bullets on January 4, 2014:

Dark Horse 1556 (-85)
XO 934 (-442)
Young Girls 902 (+258)
Team 568 (-343)
Pompeii 552 (-286)
Say Something 458 (-304)
Burn 447 (-307)
Story Of My Life 344 (-118)
Timber 275 (-755)

Safe And Sound 490 (+791)
Mirrors 416 (+431)
Summertime Sadness 372 (+579)
Thrift Shop 346 (+469)
When I Was Your Man 272 (+161)
Blurred Lines 221 (+220)
Holy Grail 159 (+421)
Radioactive 150 (+5)
We Can't Stop 115 (+75)
Hold On, We're Going Home -122 (+708)

All of the songs that were big in 2013 got huge boosts! It's radio's way of paying tribute to the big hits, and it comes at the expense of the rising songs. The songs from earlier in the year tend to steal plays from the newer, rising hits that are put on hold for two weeks.

The list of bullets on Jan. 4 actually contains two very interesting cases: Young Girls and XO. Like most Bruno Mars songs, Young Girls increased at a frenetic pace for most of its run, and the freeze didn't seem to affect it at all, but it ended up peaking just inside the top 10 for a few days. XO was one of the few songs that I actually believe the freeze had an effect on. It was a monster before the freeze, and after the freeze it never got its mojo back and its bullet steadily decreased until it peaked well outside of the top 10.

Anyways, I can confidently state that the songs affected the most by the year-end countdowns are the rising songs and older songs that were big hits during the year but are well past their peak. The rising songs will stall and/or decrease and the older songs will surge.

Because of the combined effect of the holiday songs and the year-end countdowns, most songs on the pop radio chart can expect to suffer from the freeze. It is very rare that a song is affected by both (the song would probably have to be a song that was surging in late Nov./early Dec. but had since slowed down). The two types of songs that benefit from the freeze are holiday songs and old songs that were big earlier in the year.

Examining 2014 data shows similar trends. In fact, the Christmas freeze starts well before the 12/26 cutoff that I used in my 2013 investigation, so we'll use 12/20 here. Here is a list of the fastest-gaining songs on December 20, 2014:

The Hanging Tree 2669
Uptown Funk! 1831
Love Me Harder 1740
Take Me To Church 1455
Thinking Out Loud 1276
The Heart Wants What It Wants 1245
I'm Not The Only One 1213
Stuck On A Feeling 1071
Blank Space 1067
Lips Are Movin 862

Let's take a look at how those bullets were doing on New Year's Day, 2015 (12 days later):

Thinking Out Loud 963 (-313)
The Hanging Tree 477 (-2,192)
Love Me Harder 403 (-1,337)
Stuck On A Feeling 264 (-807)
Uptown Funk! 207 (-1,624)
The Heart Wants What It Wants -149 (-1,394)
Take Me To Church -171 (-1,626)
Lips Are Movin -195 (-1,057)
I'm Not The Only One -207 (-1,420)
Blank Space -1036 (-2,103)

Blank Space could have had an even higher peak on pop radio if the freeze didn't happen to hit right at its peak. It still ended up peaking with 20,342 spins on all stations pop radio, though. Remember that the songs affected the most by the year-end countdowns are at their peaks or climbing quickly; BS was both. The other quick-rising songs all continued to increase (with the amounts they increased by varying, as The Hanging Tree petered out incredibly quickly and Take Me To Church surging to #2 in February). Thus, we can conclude that the freeze has little effect on a rising song's performance after the freeze; it depends much more on whether the song was going to become a hit in the first place. Meanwhile, TOL's good hold is due to its remarkable strength as a radio hit; we're all familiar with its excellent longevity on all metrics. The bottom line is that if a song is well on its way to becoming huge on pop radio, the freeze will do nothing to prevent it from getting there.

 

 

(credits to @alexanderao )

[Enoch]

26 minutes ago, Mr. Loco said:

What's gummo?

 

[Element]

I GOT

 

NEW RULES

 

I COUNT EM

[NumbSoul]

17 hours ago, simmnfierzig said:

2 Havana        463  (=)

11 Bad At Love        211  (+3)

14 New Rules        195  (+4)

17 Motorsport        181  (=)

18 Wolves 160 (+2)

37 Mic Drop 121 (debut)

76 End Game 61 (+10)

Rooting for these, pull through  

[NEZ]

13 hours ago, Witnessed ET said:

Ive been ****ing hoes and popping pills might not feel just like a rockstar 

Its "man i feel just like a rock star".

[ultralightbeam]

That gap close

[luckythisway]

Im gonna need SNS, Feel it Still & 1-800 to crash & burn so Bad at Love & New Rules can snatch the top 10 

[State of Grace.]

14 New Rules    195 (+4)

76 End Game 61 (+10)

 

 

[Rico Shameless v2]

18 hours ago, fridayteenage said:

radio woke up? it's higher in pop radio than streaming or itunes. if anything it's inflated.

The situation has reversed. Radio had been weighing it down from moving up quicker on H100. I believe it's reached a new peak every week since debit.

[hellocory]

Omg BTS top 40?

[Enoch]

Is Havana actually going to snatch 1?  The gap is getting smaller.

[ultralightbeam]

6 minutes ago, Enoch said:

Is Havana actually going to snatch 1?  The gap is getting smaller.

Lettuce pray ? @slw84  ??

[*Tim]

Cardi nearly coming for that 2nd top 10 hit

[Mattyboy]

27 minutes ago, Enoch said:

Is Havana actually going to snatch 1?  The gap is getting smaller.

No, unless radio can give her the advantage this week. Next week Post's album will put him way ahead again.

[grandewhispers]

Bad At Love coming for Top 10 and outpeaking Now Or Never  I'm shook! So happy for her 

 

Also, Havana is so close omg 

[FanOfPop]

New Peaks:

#5 Ed Sheeran - Perfect

#11 G-Eazy ft. A$AP Rocky & Cardi B - No Limit

#14 Halsey - Bad At Love

#18 Dua Lipa - New Rules

#20 Selena Gomez x Marshmello - Wolves

#21 Post Malone - I Fall Apart

#22 Khalid - Young Dumb & Broke

#29 6ix9ine - Gummo

#34 Charlie Puth - How Long

#37 SZA - The Weekend

#42 Bebe Rexha ft. Florida Georgia Line - Meant To Be

#48 NF - Let You Down

#50 A$AP Ferg - Plain Jane

#52 YBN Nahmir - Rubbin Off The Paint

#53 Hailee Steinfeld & Alesso ft. Florida Georgia Line & Watt - Let Me Go

#58 Miguel ft. Travis Scott - Sky Walker

#59 Luke Bryan - Light It Up

#61 Brett Young - Like I Loved You

#63 N*E*R*D & Rihanna - Lemon

#64 NAV ft. Lil Uzi Vert - Wanted You

#66 Post Malone - Candy Paint

#67 Macklemore ft. Kesha - Good Old Days

#69 Lil Xan - Betrayed

#70 MAX ft. gnash - Lights Down Low

#72 Eric Church - Round Here Buzz

#73 Russell Dickerson - Yours

#74 Becky G ft. Bad Bunny - Mayores

#76 Garth Brooks - Ask Me How I Know

#85 Walker Hayes - You Broke Up With Me

#89 Famous Dex ft. A$AP Rocky - Pick It Up

 

New Entries:

#47 Luis Fonsi & Demi Lovato - Échame La Culpa

#79 Lil Peep - Awful Things

#86 Taylor Swift ft. Ed Sheeran & Future - End Game

#90 Machine Gun Kelly ft. X Ambassadors & Bebe Rexha - Home

#92 Tank - When We

#95 P!nk - Beautiful Trauma

#96 YoungBoy Never Broke Again - No Smoke

#98 Tim McGraw & Fait Hill - The Rest Of Our Life

#99 Old Dominion - Written In The Sand

#100 Calvin Harris ft. Kehlani & Lil Yachty - Faking It

 

Re-Entries:

#93 Macklemore ft. Skylar Grey - Glorious

 

Biggest Jumps:

+ 31 Selena Gomez x Marshmello - Wolves

+ 29 6ix9ine - Gummo

+ 28 YBN Nahmir - Rubbin Off The Paint

+ 24 Lil Xan - Betrayed

+ 19 Garth Brooks - Ask Me How I Know

+ 15 N*E*R*D & Rihanna - Lemon

+ 13 Hailee Steinfeld & Alesso ft. Florida Georgia Line & Watt - Let Me Go

+ 12 21 Savage - Bank Account

+ 12 Post Malone - Candy Paint

+ 12 Niall Horan - Too Much To Ask

 

Biggest Falls:

- 41 Eminem ft. Beyoncé - Walk On Water

- 14 Taylor Swift - Look What You Made Me Do

- 12 Luke Combs - When It Rains It Pours

- 12 Carly Pearce - Every Little Thing

- 11 Chris Janson - Fix A Drink

 

Most Weeks In Top 100:

48 weeks: Post Malone ft Quavo - Congratulations

46 weeks: Ed Sheeran - Shape Of You

45 weeks: Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee ft. Justin Bieber - Despacito (Remix)

45 weeks: Bruno Mars - That's What I Like

42 weeks: Imagine Dragons - Believer

34 weeks: Kendrick Lamar - HUMBLE.

33 weeks: French Montana ft. Swae Lee - Unforgettable

31 weeks: Charlie Puth - Attention

31 weeks: Shanw Mendes - There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back

30 weeks: Imagine Dragons - Thunder

30 weeks: Logic ft. Alessia Cara & Khalid - 1-800-273-8255

30 weeks: Niall Horan - Slow Hands

[Blade]

OMFG I THOUGHT THIS WAS SYG I'M SORRY

Edited November 29, 2017 by Blade

[Blade]

Just now, Henstridge said:

Was it worth the WP?

Also, the CK video isn't on Katy's VEVO channel, so this means nothing, but keep telling yourself what helps you sleep at night

See comment above  

[UNNAMI]

20 hours ago, Green said:

1 Rockstar        481  (=)

2 Havana        463  (=)

 

It's getting closer

But then the next week Post Malone will increase because of his album release  

people keep saying that no one ever confirmed Post releasing on Dec 1st so we don't know if he is releasing or not

[QueenofCopyPaste]

8 minutes ago, UNNAMI said:

people keep saying that no one ever confirmed Post releasing on Dec 1st so we don't know if he is releasing or not

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.billboard.com/amp/articles/columns/hip-hop/8039646/post-malone-beerbongs-and-bentleys-release-date