discussion OHDems win abortion+weed; VADems win Assembly; PADems win state Supreme Court

[Reginald]

 We LOVE to see it 

You lose, Glenn Youngkin, you lose 

[needs]

It's so exciting watching states turn blue.

[woohoo]

Anyone know how SD-71 is going for Jessica Anderson there? It’s been stuck for hours with 80 votes separating them, I’ve followed her campaign journey on tiktok and hoping she pulls it out 

[Bears01]

@Espresso!!!!!

[Sannie]

Republicans were touting the chance to elect KY's first black governor and then Democrats elected VA's first black Speaker of the House.

[Sannie]

8 minutes ago, woohoo said:

Anyone know how SD-71 is going for Jessica Anderson there? It’s been stuck for hours with 80 votes separating them, I’ve followed her campaign journey on tiktok and hoping she pulls it out 

dave says it is currently too close to call.

 

 

[GhostBox]

I’m so happy the Dems were able to stop Youngkins radical agenda in its foot steps. 👏🏼

[woohoo]

Just now, Sannie said:

dave says it is currently too close to call.

 

 

Cmon Jessica Anderson!! That will be the cherry on top of this amazing night! 

[Vermillion]

@Sannie I updated the title and deleted that post  Sorry sis I had errands 

[Vermillion]

@Bears01 These ads on mobile with me trying to update this ****ing thread will be the END of me I SWEAR

[Sannie]

LMAO at weed beating abortion in Ohio. And we were worried about the weed.  

[shelven]

Obviously this is good news and the Dems would rather have a night like this than not have it, but I'm really struggling to see the objective logic of taking this as a surefire sign that the Dems are going to crush it in 2024. Two of the most consistent trends we've seen from presidential election polling are: (1) People think Biden is too old to serve another term; and (2) Trump brings out a large number of low engagement voters. These results don't mitigate either of those two problems.

 

I will say this is a good sign of the Dems taking back the House next year or at least keeping the GOP majority narrow. 

[woohoo]

1 minute ago, shelven said:

Obviously this is good news and the Dems would rather have a night like this than not have it, but I'm really struggling to see the objective logic of taking this as a surefire sign that the Dems are going to crush it in 2024. Two of the most consistent trends we've been from presidential election polling are: (1) People think Biden is too old to serve another term; and (2) Trump brings out a large number of low engagement voters. These results don't mitigate either of those two problems.

 

I will say this is a good sign of the Dems taking back the House next year or at least keeping the GOP majority narrow. 

Honestly even my family of republicans have soured on Trump like many in the nation and I know that is anecdotal but I don’t see him bringing out normal republicans as they stay home again. And the crazies of maga are a small group without traditional conservatives. And Arizona hates Trump for the McCain comments, I don’t see him winning there. 

[Sannie]

3 minutes ago, shelven said:

Obviously this is good news and the Dems would rather have a night like this than not have it, but I'm really struggling to see the objective logic of taking this as a surefire sign that the Dems are going to crush it in 2024. Two of the most consistent trends we've seen from presidential election polling are: (1) People think Biden is too old to serve another term; and (2) Trump brings out a large number of low engagement voters. These results don't mitigate either of those two problems.

 

I will say this is a good sign of the Dems taking back the House next year or at least keeping the GOP majority narrow. 

?? The general consensus in this thread has been that tonight does not have a big impact on 2024, but it does show that the GOP is their greatest enemy. Extremism does not click with Americans, and every election since 2020 has shown that. People can think Biden is old and not want him, but they do not want to be controlled by the GOP even more. 

 

The GOP is not going to change their messaging. They are going to continue coming after LGBT people, immigrants, and abortion. They will never learn and will continue to lose not because Biden is great, but because they are much worse.

[Bears01]

6 minutes ago, shelven said:

Obviously this is good news and the Dems would rather have a night like this than not have it, but I'm really struggling to see the objective logic of taking this as a surefire sign that the Dems are going to crush it in 2024. Two of the most consistent trends we've seen from presidential election polling are: (1) People think Biden is too old to serve another term; and (2) Trump brings out a large number of low engagement voters. These results don't mitigate either of those two problems.

 

I will say this is a good sign of the Dems taking back the House next year or at least keeping the GOP majority narrow. 

It all depends, but downballot performance has usually been very predicative of how election in even numbered years will go. 
 

I do agree: I don’t want Biden either, but these results are not to be taken lightly. 
 

Anyway: 

 

[shelven]

2 minutes ago, woohoo said:

Honestly even my family of republicans have soured on Trump like many in the nation and I know that is anecdotal but I don’t see him bringing out normal republicans as they stay home again. And the crazies of maga are a small group without traditional conservatives. And Arizona hates Trump for the McCain comments, I don’t see him winning there. 

People basically said all of this before November 2020 and yet he still came dangerously close to winning. And that was against a Biden who was relatively well-liked and who was implicitly promising everyone he'd only serve one term.

 

For what it's worth, I'm not one of those "Trump is definitely going to win" doomers, but if he does lose, it will be because he gets found guilty in one of his criminal matters before the election and/or because the average voter will start paying more attention to him again and they'll remember how unhinged and annoying he is. If the election were happening tomorrow instead, I would feel pretty comfortable betting on a Trump win, but he has a full year to f*ck it up which is the best factor in Biden's favour.

[Vermillion]

41 minutes ago, Bears01 said:

@Espresso!!!!!

So many layers to this. Wow.

[Sannie]

There were huge Dem wins all around the country. NJ Dems did great. NC Dems did great. IN Dems did great. It is getting harder to see how this may not be reflective of how the American people are feeling about the GOP going into 2024.

 

 

[Communion]

14 minutes ago, shelven said:

Obviously this is good news and the Dems would rather have a night like this than not have it, but I'm really struggling to see the objective logic of taking this as a surefire sign that the Dems are going to crush it in 2024. Two of the most consistent trends we've seen from presidential election polling are: (1) People think Biden is too old to serve another term; and (2) Trump brings out a large number of low engagement voters. These results don't mitigate either of those two problems.

 

I will say this is a good sign of the Dems taking back the House next year or at least keeping the GOP majority narrow. 

When this happens but the Senate map ends up 50x worse for Dems than it was in 2022 (with people mistakenly thinking 2022's results were solely due to Dem over-performance and not a very favorable map) and Dems lose the Senate despite barely gaining the House. 

 

Rotating villains.

 

Ironically interested in what exactly Sherrod Brown will claim he's open to being pushed to the left on now that he won't have abortion or weed to dangle in front of young people.

[Raspberries]

28 minutes ago, Sannie said:

LMAO at weed beating abortion in Ohio. And we were worried about the weed.  

Issue 2 being +13 and Issue 1 being +12  

[Bears01]

I do gotta say: all things considered, republicans did very respectable in VA, for how blue that state is at the presidential. If Youngkin wasn’t so public about wanting an abortion ban, he very well could have won it all, but any kind of abortion ban will not fly in Loudoun or Prince William County. 
 

No marijuana ban or abortion ban for a state that is truly an island in the south 

4 minutes ago, Raspberries said:

Issue 2 being +13 and Issue 1 being +12  

Issue 2 BOMBING in the suburbs, but absolutely slaying in the rurals 

[Bears01]

Now. The bigger problem for the GOP: how badly they flopped in PA  they absolutely flopped outside of a DA race: 

 

[Bears01]

 

[woohoo]

1 minute ago, Bears01 said:

 

Pack it up k*ntz for liberty. 

[Bloo]

3 hours ago, SignificantOther said:

I wouldn't be so optimistic. Young people age and tend to get more conservative, and the country is actually getting older. 

Others have already highlighted that this trend isn’t holding for the millennial generation. I think it’s worth noting that many economists believe this is likely due to the fact that millennials (and Gen Z) are unable to afford housing. Becoming a property owner is one of the more reliable economic launchpads to shifting to the right: when you start to care about property values, property taxes, obsessively follow crime rates because it affects your property value, etc.

 

Millenials and Gen Z have been so thoroughly screwed over economically that we’re less likely to shift in that direction because we simply can’t afford housing.