Jump to content
Login issues ×
The ATRL Grammys are back! ×
Taylor Swift is the 2nd Greatest Pop Star of the 21st Century! Who will be #1? ×

Hot 100 Predictions: Kill Bill #1, PDR #4

B-Luke

By B-Luke
in Charts & Sales

 Share

Recommended Posts

dabunique Grand Master

dabunique

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

How is Kill Bill favored? What data is there favoring it over LN?

Radio and Streaming + sales

  • Replies 522
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Tekken_Guy

    48

  • Green

    41

  • Sscorpionn

    37

  • pride4jc1222

    36

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Tekken_Guy Contributor

Tekken_Guy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dabunique said:

Radio and Streaming + sales

 

7 minutes ago, B-Luke said:

Mainly radio audience and stability at a great level on Spotify. Fans have been buying heavy on their websites these past few days too.

I'm still standing by my call that Last Night will stay #1. The Spotify streaming gap has been trending back in Morgan's direction the past couple of days, KB isn't doing so hot on Apple Music, and LN is rapidly gaining on radio while KB is stagnant. Also he's still #1 on iTunes while both versions of KB fell hard yesterday.

 

Is there something I'm getting wrong with the formula? Unless there's some pretty insane things going on on the sales front that I don't know about.

dabunique Grand Master

dabunique

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

 

I'm still standing by my call that Last Night will stay #1. The Spotify streaming gap has been trending back in Morgan's direction the past couple of days, KB isn't doing so hot on Apple Music, and LN is rapidly gaining on radio while KB is stagnant. Also he's still #1 on iTunes while both versions of KB fell hard yesterday.

 

Is there something I'm getting wrong with the formula? Unless there's some pretty insane things going on on the sales front that I don't know about.

website sales

pride4jc1222 Grand Master

pride4jc1222

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

 

I'm still standing by my call that Last Night will stay #1. The Spotify streaming gap has been trending back in Morgan's direction the past couple of days, KB isn't doing so hot on Apple Music, and LN is rapidly gaining on radio while KB is stagnant. Also he's still #1 on iTunes while both versions of KB fell hard yesterday.

 

Is there something I'm getting wrong with the formula? Unless there's some pretty insane things going on on the sales front that I don't know about.

To be fair, the Hot 100 formula has been off since the beginning of 2020. When they decided to remove UGC streams, while not addressing the mass buying issue, is when the charts lost all credibility. If Billboard wants a more accurate representation of song popularity on its Hot 100 chart, this is what they should do:

 

1. Eliminate the sales component from the Hot 100 (this will stop manipulation).

2. Decrease the weight of radio

3. Reintroduce UGC streams to the Hot 100 formula (TikTok is popular today).

Tekken_Guy Contributor

Tekken_Guy

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, dabunique said:

website sales

Maybe they know something about the sales we don't. I've not seen any evidence that the radio gap is wide enough and the streaming gap narrow enough for #1. Morgan is still gaining on radio.

B-Luke Grand Master

B-Luke

Posted
  • Author
Posted
17 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

 

I'm still standing by my call that Last Night will stay #1. The Spotify streaming gap has been trending back in Morgan's direction the past couple of days, KB isn't doing so hot on Apple Music, and LN is rapidly gaining on radio while KB is stagnant. Also he's still #1 on iTunes while both versions of KB fell hard yesterday.

 

Is there something I'm getting wrong with the formula? Unless there's some pretty insane things going on on the sales front that I don't know about.

KB hasn‘t lead any metric (sales/radio/streams) this week but still has more than twice the radio audience of LN (85m vs. 40m) and will probably finish with only like 5m streams less overall than LN. Morgan‘s main advantage are sales while KB has been gaining occasionally through website sales which is why the gap is slowly narrowing.

Tekken_Guy Contributor

Tekken_Guy

Posted
Posted

Imagine this becomes Levitating vs. LTDO 2.0, and Last Night hangs on by the skin of its teeth.

Tekken_Guy Contributor

Tekken_Guy

Posted
Posted
Just now, B-Luke said:

KB hasn‘t lead any metric (sales/radio/streams) this week but still has more than twice the radio audience of LN (85m vs. 40m) and will probably finish with only like 5m streams less overall than LN. Morgan‘s main advantage are sales while KB has been gaining occasionally through website sales which is why the gap is slowly narrowing.

Have the other two metrics (sales/radio) been helping KB? In that the radio gap is wider than expected or the streaming gap narrower?

Disconnect Proficient

Disconnect

Posted
Posted (edited)

Why is there this new obsession with reaching #1? There are so many huge songs that only peaked at #2 tbh.

 

Bad Romance, IKYWT and Levitating are just some examples. 

Edited by Disconnect
dabunique Grand Master

dabunique

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Disconnect said:

Why is there this new obsession with reaching #1? There are so many huge songs that only peaked at #2 tbh.

 

Bad Romance, IKYWT and Levitating are just some examples. 

new obsession? its what everybody wants since 1959 lol

Disconnect Proficient

Disconnect

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, dabunique said:

new obsession? its what everybody wants since 1959 lol

I meant obsession for the fans sorry haha.

 

I know but I'm just tired of these threads beggin for Kill Bill to go #1, I like the song but I couldn't care less about its peak tbh. It's a good song but it isn't even THAT good and I honestly think that's the reason why it's been struggling so much to get there.

Edited by Disconnect
dabunique Grand Master

dabunique

Posted
Posted
Just now, Disconnect said:

I meant obsession for the fans sorry haha.

 

I know but I'm just tired of these threads beggin for Kill Bill to go #1, I like the song but I couldn't care less about its peak tbh haha. It's a good song but it isn't even THAT good and I honestly think that's why it's struggling been so much to reach that position.

well let's take a look neither SZA or Ice have had a number one and this could be there chance, hence why fans have been excited 

Disconnect Proficient

Disconnect

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dabunique said:

well let's take a look neither SZA or Ice have had a number one and this could be there chance, hence why fans have been excited 

I agree. She's had better and more deserving songs though.

TiaTamera Experienced

TiaTamera

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, dabunique said:

website sales

What’s the website 

pride4jc1222 Grand Master

pride4jc1222

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, B-Luke said:

KB hasn‘t lead any metric (sales/radio/streams) this week but still has more than twice the radio audience of LN (85m vs. 40m) and will probably finish with only like 5m streams less overall than LN. Morgan‘s main advantage are sales while KB has been gaining occasionally through website sales which is why the gap is slowly narrowing.

Morgan's main advantage is still through streaming, where he has 5 weeks at #1 on the metric. 5m streams is still ~35 points on the Hot 100. That's equivalent to ~35k sales, which neither LN or KB are going to be close to reaching.

pride4jc1222 Grand Master

pride4jc1222

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, dabunique said:

well let's take a look neither SZA or Ice have had a number one and this could be there chance, hence why fans have been excited 

Ice could have done organically with In Ha Mood, which is a way better song than Princess Diana. Nobody is going to remember PD in about a month, lol.

Sscorpionn Community Regular

Sscorpionn

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TiaTamera said:

Thank you. If I purchase the different versions on iTunes with the same card does it count as one sale or is it individual?

Not completely sure but it counts as separate purchases as long as it’s being purchased in different platforms I think. 

pride4jc1222 Grand Master

pride4jc1222

Posted
Posted

My question is why would someone buy multiple versions of a song in 2023, when you stream it for free?

Green Grand Master

Green

Posted
Posted

So random but why are the bots mass buying Jimin's song again?  :huh: 

 

 

6 +48
Jimin - Like Crazy (English Version)
7 +51
Jimin - Like Crazy
8 +53
Jimin - Like Crazy (Deep House Remix)
     
10 +53
Jimin - Like Crazy (UK Garage Remix)
11 +54
Jimin - Like Crazy (Instrumental)
brianc33710 Proficient

brianc33710

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Green said:

So random but why are the bots mass buying Jimin's song again?  :huh: 

 

 

6 +48
Jimin - Like Crazy (English Version)
7 +51
Jimin - Like Crazy
8 +53
Jimin - Like Crazy (Deep House Remix)
     
10 +53
Jimin - Like Crazy (UK Garage Remix)
11 +54
Jimin - Like Crazy (Instrumental)

Yeah I saw this earlier but didn't know if I was alone seeing it. 

Tekken_Guy Contributor

Tekken_Guy

Posted
Posted

If Kill Bill goes #1, I will agree to change my profile pic

PoisonPill Grand Master

PoisonPill

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Imagine this becomes Levitating vs. LTDO 2.0, and Last Night hangs on by the skin of its teeth.

wouldn’t be surprising. LN is a beast and I’m starting to think it’ll challenge flowers and KB for the year end #1. Huge crossover country hits tend to place really high year end with the cross format airplay and longevity.

B-Luke Grand Master

B-Luke

Posted
  • Author
Posted

If they‘re telling the truth it‘s about 95% chance we got this since Lip has proven to be the most accurate predictor :duca:

 Share
Go to topic listing

Obsessed with Pop Culture. Copyright © 1999-2024, ATRL

Navigation

About Us

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.