charts discussion Early predictions (lippredicts): AIWFCIY #5, RATCT #8, LMU vs. JBR battle for #10

[DemDam92]

If this Mariah dominance continues and Billboard doesn’t change the rules, I can see All I Want to become:

- song of the decade (2020-2029)

- 2x RIAA Diamond

- longest weeks at #1 for a song

[Both Sides Now]

11 minutes ago, Starchild said:

You make it sound like she's tanking when she has a song from the 50s at #8 without promotion  

Huh? That was not my intention at all. 
 

11 minutes ago, Brando said:

This is a bit much for a tracking week in the middle of November

 

Do people use Christmas music as some kind of escape from their unpleasant realities? This year must have been really tough 

Xmas music has been doing MUCH better compared to the last couple years. Mariah is doing more than 1 million extra streams for AIWFCIY alone compared to last year (~2M vs ~3M). I think people are getting into the holiday spirit early since the last two Christmases sucked with covid.  

[pride4jc1222]

18 minutes ago, WeFoundTrouble said:

Yeah, at this rate I fear in 2025 Halloween week will have Thriller AND AIWFCIY charting top 10  

 

Abel, Rihanna, Beyonce, Drake, Mariah, and Taylor all top 10 at the same time is amazing. Black excellence  

I think 2024 is the more likely year, with Halloween falling on a Thursday that year. I think that is the year that will give Thriller, Ghostbusters, Monster Mash, and any other Halloween song its optimal peak. Halloween being on a Friday in 2025 will split the activity into two tracking weeks.

[PoisonedIvy]

3 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

I think 2024 is the more likely year, with Halloween falling on a Thursday that year. I think that is the year that will give Thriller, Ghostbusters, Monster Mash, and any other Halloween song its optimal peak. Halloween being on a Friday in 2025 will split the activity into two tracking weeks.

You’re right about that lol. Imagine a top 10 with Thriller, Monster Mash, Disturbia, AIWFCIY, and Rockin Around the Xmas Tree  

[DemDam92]

16 minutes ago, MALAMENTE said:

Hope Brenda gets the #1 this year

No, she can stay at #2. 

[Both Sides Now]

3 minutes ago, DemDam92 said:

No, she can stay at #2. 

Brenda can have it when Mariah snatches the longest running #1 back from Lil Nas X in 3-4 years 

[suburbannature]

1 hour ago, OnlyManInTheWorld said:

Wow, Brenda. If only she moved her finger and promoted, this could easily challenge Mariah  

 

1 hour ago, Black Jesus said:

This…and her success is WAY more significant. This damn song was released in 1958. A true timeless classic. 

 

1 hour ago, Starchild said:

Sadly Ms Lee doesn't promote months ahead like Mariah. Which is sad, she deserves it, that song is a classic 

y’all have already been clocked, but I’ll add that AIWFCIY vastly outperforms on most platforms. Plus the song rose to #1 and classic status LONG before Mariah started making it an annual event recently. It didn’t have promo or performances beyond tours for a solid 15-20 years .

[suburbannature]

45 minutes ago, Starchild said:

You make it sound like she's tanking when she has a song from the 50s at #8 without promotion  

Xmas songs have never been promo-sensitive 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[magazine]

a nightmare 

[simmnfierzig]

42 minutes ago, Planet Mars said:

CUFF IT

 

The fact that this song is already a bigger hit than BMS is just

I mean... Cuff It is a much better song

[Green]

That's sooner than expected

[BajanBeauty]

59 minutes ago, istan4badgalriri said:

so Lift Me Up would’ve stayed at #8 if it wasn’t for Xmas and might stay T10 regardless

 

Not bad for a career-ending flop 

Potentially 3 out of 4 weeks in the top 10. Only the biggest flop by a pop girl

 

[Brando]

47 minutes ago, Both Sides Now said:

I think people are getting into the holiday spirit early since the last two Christmases sucked with covid.  

that would make sense i guess. she's gonna have another record this year i'm sure. ~30m daily 

[Rick]

That Mariah reign just won't let up !

 

30M streams on december 25th! Mark my words! 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Rick

[Green]

The Weeknd snatching another top 10 

[suburbannature]

21 minutes ago, Brando said:

that would make sense i guess. she's gonna have another record this year i'm sure. ~30m daily 

 

19 minutes ago, Rick said:

That Mariah reign just won't let up !

 

30M streams on december 25th! Mark my words! 

30m?  

 

now that will not be happening. She had 17 last year.

 

or do you mean unfiltered?

[pride4jc1222]

Another prediction, with point/metric breakdown: 

 

[Brando]

13 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

Another prediction, with point/metric breakdown: 

 

You're not gonna mention that RF should be #1 because it's #1 on streaming? 

[Sweetestsecret]

Big fall for Christmas songs on Spotify today

. I don't think that they will be so high on hot 100

[HEAVYONIT]

1 hour ago, suburbannature said:

 

 

y’all have already been clocked, but I’ll add that AIWFCIY vastly outperforms on most platforms. Plus the song rose to #1 and classic status LONG before Mariah started making it an annual event recently. It didn’t have promo or performances beyond tours for a solid 15-20 years .

Brenda's song has been out since 1958. Call me when we hit 60 years since AIWFCIY being released. 

[fridayteenage]

2 hours ago, Green said:

The Weeknd snatching another top 10 

from a 6 year old album whew.

 

people paying his album from this year dust.

 

a truth hurts tea.

 

 

[Alexz]

4 hours ago, OnlyManInTheWorld said:

Wow, Brenda. If only she moved her finger and promoted, this could easily challenge Mariah  

Isn't she kinda old?

[Taylena]

Anti-Hero is so stable. What a smash hit! Easily 10 weeks #1 if it wasn't for Christmas. 

[Ger]

SMASH FOR YOU OMG OMG PLEASE BE REAALLL, AHHHH THIS F*CKING GEMMM LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOO   

[ClashAndBurn]

9 hours ago, Brando said:

This is a bit much for a tracking week in the middle of November

 

Do people use Christmas music as some kind of escape from their unpleasant realities? This year must have been really tough 

 

 

Nah, the charts are just really weak right now. Christmas music routinely gets going the week after Halloween, and aside from Anti-Hero, there’s nothing that’s really doing that great.

 

Mariah would be on top next tracking week if not for Taylor, cause Rich Flex is bleeding out and Unholy wouldn’t be strong enough to stop her.