sunbathinganimal Posted July 4 Posted July 4 this cost them the election https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/john-swinney-first-minister-scotland-taylor-swift-swifties-b2557356.html
discreetinside Posted July 4 Posted July 4 (edited) Sending hard pray to y'all for the Reform votes Spoiler It's lowkey giving deja Vu of what I experienced in 2022-2023 and I live in British former colonies in Asia which we incorporated Westminster Parliament system in case anyone interested to know. I can't imagine the shitshow I'm gonna experience in 2026-2028 when the next GE cycle comes Edited July 4 by discreetinside
Burn Posted July 4 Posted July 4 Reform gaining these seats will just make the Conservatives go even further to the right to win back Reform voters, which isn't good for anyone. The next election is already looking scary. 6
abelfenty Posted July 4 Posted July 4 33 minutes ago, Jack! said: Yeah I'm nervous Reform are going to get more than the exit polls suggest. I doubt. With the Tories seemingly getting more than expected I think they may be slightly her in the final results which will probably push Reform down a couple
KasioKas Posted July 4 Posted July 4 19 minutes ago, Eat The Acid said: Sis it's +13 from 0 They will be 4th in seats and won't even be close. Yes I know, overall it's not significant, but any gain whatsoever for reform is terrifying was my point... 1
John Slayne Posted July 4 Posted July 4 2 minutes ago, Burn said: Reform gaining these seats will just make the Conservatives go even further to the right to win back Reform voters, which isn't good for anyone. The next election is already looking scary. this is what's actually gonna happen. that's why i encouraged people to vote Green - we need to push Labour to the left and make chasing our vote worth their while, otherwise everyone will shift to the right 1
Marla Singer Posted July 4 Posted July 4 Reform might not get many seats in the end but the number of votes they're getting so far is worrying 2
John Slayne Posted July 4 Posted July 4 25 minutes ago, Eat The Acid said: Sis it's +13 from 0 They will be 4th in seats and won't even be close. only because of FPTP. their popular vote share will be high and Tories will become nastier and more racist in order to snatch Reform voters back. we should be worried. OT: the thread title
RihannaRTT Posted July 4 Posted July 4 Third seat is pretty much the same as the MRPs too. LAB 46% (45-59%) REF 28% (18-27%) think WeThink should retire in shame bc that 59% their predictions have been the MOST out there of each seat so far
Jack! Posted July 4 Posted July 4 20 minutes ago, sunbathinganimal said: this cost them the election https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/john-swinney-first-minister-scotland-taylor-swift-swifties-b2557356.html An embarrassment. Scottish election can't come soon enough then we can really push the SNP off a cliff. 1
sunbathinganimal Posted July 4 Posted July 4 Just now, discreetinside said: The possible Tories gain on Scotland in expense of SNP I hate it here
Fevesy Posted July 4 Posted July 4 3 minutes ago, discreetinside said: The possible Tories gain on Scotland in expense of SNP I- maybe Scottish Independence is a bad idea after all
John Slayne Posted July 4 Posted July 4 i genuinely need to talk to more Tory voters. like what kind of brain worms would make someone vote Tory in 2024
discreetinside Posted July 4 Posted July 4 3 minutes ago, sunbathinganimal said: I hate it here Just now, Fevesy said: I- maybe Scottish Independence is a bad idea after all It appears the Scotland tactical vote ware used against SNP as opposed to Tories/Reform in England and Wales but we'll see about that.
RihannaRTT Posted July 4 Posted July 4 3 minutes ago, discreetinside said: The possible Tories gain on Scotland in expense of SNP definitely think this is incorrect. The professor guy behind the exit poll is also backtracking pretty quickly and putting out statements to urge caution with the results: Quote It appears the SNP may have suffered a more substantial reverse in its fortunes than most polls anticipated. The decline in the party's support does, however, appear to be lower in places where a high proportion of people identify as Scottish rather than British. The exit poll only has a small number of sampling points in Scotland. So the forecast for the SNP - and for Scotland in general, where the exit poll is pointing to substantial Labour gains - must be treated with a great deal of caution. It makes no sense for the opinion polls to be 50-50 split with Labour / SNP in first and second for ABZ South only for the exit poll to predict 44% CON victory. It feels as if the likelihood is that the sampling points are all in the south of Scotland so the middle part is generally guesses bc they're not matching the MRPs like the actual results so far.
RihannaRTT Posted July 4 Posted July 4 Washington and Gateshead South LAB 48% (42-58% MRP) REF 29% (17-37% MRP) https://tactical.vote/washington-and-gateshead-south/ A non-surprising top two there also. Last one for me tonight I think, but curious to see the results tomorrow morning. -- The Swindon South result indicates the exit poll might have slightly overpredicted Reform too. Quote In the first Conservative-held seat to be declared tonight, we expected the Conservatives to lose 25 points, Labour to gain four and Reform gain 17. In fact, the Conservatives lost 25 points, Labour gained eight and Reform gained 14.
Peroxide Posted July 4 Posted July 4 10 minutes ago, Burn said: Apparently voter turnout was only around 52% Unfortunately this isn't too surprising. Voter apathy mixed with the fact the vast majority of country expect Labour to win. What was the turnout like in 2019?
Burn Posted July 4 Posted July 4 5 minutes ago, Peroxide said: Unfortunately this isn't too surprising. Voter apathy mixed with the fact the vast majority of country expect Labour to win. What was the turnout like in 2019? 67.3% in 2019 1 1
Jack! Posted July 4 Posted July 4 (edited) 45 minutes ago, discreetinside said: The possible Tories gain on Scotland in expense of SNP It's annoying and far too much, but it is worth nothing this is only 10 seats (maybe 11? East Renfrewshire typically can be a Tory hotspot and it doesn't seem to be blue from what I can see but it's far into the central belt so might not be visible since there's so many constituencies in that strip) - it's just the constituencies in the Highlands and Lowlands are large. In any case, it's upsetting considering what Thatcher-ism style Tory beliefs did to Scotland. That time frame alone should be enough reason to deter anyone in this country voting for them, even if it was 45 years ago. EDIT: Maybe it's 12 or 13 actually, it's difficult to tell on that map since I think the West is split up a bit without lines considering all the Isles. Edited July 5 by Jack!
Peroxide Posted July 5 Posted July 5 10 minutes ago, Burn said: 67.3% in 2019 Oh jeez on reflection a drop that huge is concerning…
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