discussion UK Politics 🇬🇧🏛️ Election - Greens quadruple their seats!

[Jack!]

20 minutes ago, sunbathinganimal said:

this cost them the election

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/john-swinney-first-minister-scotland-taylor-swift-swifties-b2557356.html

An embarrassment.  Scottish election can't come soon enough then we can really push the SNP off a cliff.

[RihannaRTT]

Swindon South

LAB 48% (42-54% MRP)

CON 27% (22-28% MRP)

[discreetinside]

The possible Tories gain on Scotland in expense of SNP

 

[sunbathinganimal]

Just now, discreetinside said:

The possible Tories gain on Scotland in expense of SNP

 

I hate it here

[Fevesy]

3 minutes ago, discreetinside said:

The possible Tories gain on Scotland in expense of SNP

 

I-

 

maybe Scottish Independence is a bad idea after all 

[John Slayne]

i genuinely need to talk to more Tory voters. like what kind of brain worms would make someone vote Tory in 2024

[discreetinside]

3 minutes ago, sunbathinganimal said:

I hate it here

 

Just now, Fevesy said:

I-

 

maybe Scottish Independence is a bad idea after all 

It appears the Scotland tactical vote ware used against SNP as opposed to Tories/Reform in England and Wales but we'll see about that.

[RihannaRTT]

3 minutes ago, discreetinside said:

The possible Tories gain on Scotland in expense of SNP

 

definitely think this is incorrect. The professor guy behind the exit poll is also backtracking pretty quickly and putting out statements to urge caution with the results:

Quote

 

It appears the SNP may have suffered a more substantial reverse in its fortunes than most polls anticipated.

The decline in the party's support does, however, appear to be lower in places where a high proportion of people identify as Scottish rather than British.

The exit poll only has a small number of sampling points in Scotland. So the forecast for the SNP - and for Scotland in general, where the exit poll is pointing to substantial Labour gains - must be treated with a great deal of caution.

 

It makes no sense for the opinion polls to be 50-50 split with Labour / SNP in first and second for ABZ South only for the exit poll to predict 44% CON victory. It feels as if the likelihood is that the sampling points are all in the south of Scotland so the middle part is generally guesses bc they're not matching the MRPs like the actual results so far. 

 

 

 

[Burn]

Apparently voter turnout was only around 52%

[RihannaRTT]

Washington and Gateshead South

LAB 48% (42-58% MRP)

REF 29% (17-37% MRP)

https://tactical.vote/washington-and-gateshead-south/

 

A non-surprising top two there also. Last one for me tonight I think, but curious to see the results tomorrow morning. 

 

--

 

The Swindon South result indicates the exit poll might have slightly overpredicted Reform too.

Quote

 

In the first Conservative-held seat to be declared tonight, we expected the Conservatives to lose 25 points, Labour to gain four and Reform gain 17.

In fact, the Conservatives lost 25 points, Labour gained eight and Reform gained 14.

 

[Peroxide]

10 minutes ago, Burn said:

Apparently voter turnout was only around 52%

Unfortunately this isn't too surprising.

 

Voter apathy mixed with the fact the vast majority of country expect Labour to win.

 

What was the turnout like in 2019?

[Burn]

5 minutes ago, Peroxide said:

Unfortunately this isn't too surprising.

 

Voter apathy mixed with the fact the vast majority of country expect Labour to win.

 

What was the turnout like in 2019?

67.3% in 2019

[Jack!]

45 minutes ago, discreetinside said:

The possible Tories gain on Scotland in expense of SNP

 

It's annoying and far too much, but it is worth nothing this is only 10 seats (maybe 11? East Renfrewshire typically can be a Tory hotspot and it doesn't seem to be blue from what I can see but it's far into the central belt so might not be visible since there's so many constituencies in that strip) - it's just the constituencies in the Highlands and Lowlands are large.

 

In any case, it's upsetting considering what Thatcher-ism style Tory beliefs did to Scotland. That time frame alone should be enough reason to deter anyone in this country voting for them, even if it was 45 years ago.

 

EDIT: Maybe it's 12 or 13 actually, it's difficult to tell on that map since I think the West is split up a bit without lines considering all the Isles.

Edited July 5, 2024 by Jack!

[Peroxide]

10 minutes ago, Burn said:

67.3% in 2019

Oh jeez on reflection a drop that huge is concerning…

 

 

[Thickorita]

 

 

 

Small victories tonight girls

[glitch]

36 minutes ago, Burn said:

Apparently voter turnout was only around 52%

Wouldn't that be the lowest turnout in over a century 

[Save-Me-Oprah]

 

 

[John Slayne]

2 minutes ago, Thickorita said:

 

 

 

Small victories tonight girls

deserved. Starmer can go eat dirt!

[John Slayne]

and i hope Faiza Shaheen beats Labour's ass as well

[discreetinside]

57 minutes ago, Jack! said:

It's annoying and far too much, but it is worth nothing this is only 10 seats (maybe 11? East Renfrewshire typically can be a Tory hotspot and it doesn't seem to be blue from what I can see but it's far into the central belt so might not be visible since there's so many constituencies in that strip) - it's just the constituencies in the Highlands and Lowlands are large.

 

In any case, it's upsetting considering what Thatcher-ism style Tory beliefs did to Scotland. That time frame alone should be enough reason to deter anyone in this country voting for them, even if it was 45 years ago.

 

EDIT: Maybe it's 12 or 13 actually, it's difficult to tell on that map since I think the West is split up a bit without lines considering all the Isles.

I believe someone else just mentioned the exit poll in Scotland was kinda off and didn't aligned with the opinion polls so we'll see

[John Slayne]

George Galloway lost, I love this song! 

[Genius1111]

From BBC.com

 

Labour - 41 seats / 42.4% (+16 seats)

Conservative - 2 seats / 20.0% (-19 seats)

Reform - 1 seat / 19.2% (+1 seat)

Liberal Democrat - 2 seats / 7.2% (+2 seats)

 

 

56% turnout (-8 points from 2019)

Edited July 5, 2024 by Genius1111

[May]

1 minute ago, Genius1111 said:

From BBC.com

 

Labour - 41 seats / 42.4% (+16 seats)

Conservative - 2 seats / 20.0% (-19 seats)

Reform - 1 seat / 19.2% (+1 seat)

Liberal Democrat - 2 seats / 7.2% (+2 seats)

 

oh it was bad for them

[shimind]

so UK equivalent of Democrats are winning and republicans are losing? am i correct? Good job UK. Another country where the needle is swinging to the left 

[discreetinside]

Labour truly fumbled this seat based from the candidate selection