makeawish Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 (edited) check yr own seat in the exit poll https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180 Edited July 4, 2024 by makeawish
fountain Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 Joyriding over the corpses of the conservatives! Insane how they even still have any support tho, and not happy to see ref*rm with that many But conservatives having their worst performance in history is still a beautiful sight no matter what
sunbathinganimal Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 ofc my nasty ass constituency is expected to stay tory
Doogle Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 On 7/4/2024 at 10:10 PM, sunbathinganimal said: ofc my nasty ass constituency is expected to stay tory Expand Same lol but my mum voted for me as proxy as I'm abroad so I don't have to deal with it. Not surprised, it's a shithole and why I left 1
KasioKas Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 Reform potentially coming 2nd in seats is very dangerous + 13 wins from exit poll...
Jack! Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 Yeah I'm nervous Reform are going to get more than the exit polls suggest. 4
RihannaRTT Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 On 7/4/2024 at 9:39 PM, makeawish said: check yr own seat in the exit poll https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180 Expand I did and I think it's probably wrong for mine. 44% chance of CON when every other poll said its 50-50 for SNP vs Labour. I don't doubt the overall feeling of the exit poll, but I'm very sceptical on ABZ South at least -- That first result is a *little* concerning when you compare the opinion polls to the final. From my calculations, Labour is 47% of that vote, Reform is 29%. From the main 10 opinion polls, Labour was looking 47-57% and Reform 20-28%. So we should be expecting Labour on the lowest end of their polls, I'd say. YouGov and ElectoralCalculus might be worth looking into overall rn
RihannaRTT Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 The YouGov MRP was LAB 431 CON 102 LD 72 SNP 18 REF 3 GRN 2 EC's MRP was LAB 453 CON 78 LD 67 SNP 19 REF 7 GRN 3
RihannaRTT Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 LAB 50%, REF 27% Opinion Polls: LAB 49-62%, REF 15-28%. Pretty much same as the first result but in this one it's EC and MoreInCommon that are the closer results. fwiw MIC's projection was: LAB 430 CON 126 LD 52 SNP 16 REF 2 GRN 1
RihannaRTT Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 On 7/4/2024 at 10:37 PM, Gwendolyn said: Reform has come 2nd 2/2 times now, maybe America isn't looking that bad... Expand I wouldn't be too concerned about those yet because they *were* predicted to be 2nd in both of those based on the MRPs anyway. See: https://tactical.vote/blyth-and-ashington/ If they start coming 2nd in places they weren't predicted too, then yeah it'll be a bit scarier.
Eat The Acid Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 On 7/4/2024 at 10:21 PM, KasioKas said: Reform potentially coming 2nd in seats is very dangerous + 13 wins from exit poll... Expand Sis it's +13 from 0 They will be 4th in seats and won't even be close.
sunbathinganimal Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 this cost them the election https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/john-swinney-first-minister-scotland-taylor-swift-swifties-b2557356.html
discreetinside Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 (edited) Sending hard pray to y'all for the Reform votes Reveal hidden contents It's lowkey giving deja Vu of what I experienced in 2022-2023 and I live in British former colonies in Asia which we incorporated Westminster Parliament system in case anyone interested to know. I can't imagine the shitshow I'm gonna experience in 2026-2028 when the next GE cycle comes Edited July 4, 2024 by discreetinside
Burn Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 Reform gaining these seats will just make the Conservatives go even further to the right to win back Reform voters, which isn't good for anyone. The next election is already looking scary. 6
abelfenty Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 On 7/4/2024 at 10:31 PM, Jack! said: Yeah I'm nervous Reform are going to get more than the exit polls suggest. Expand I doubt. With the Tories seemingly getting more than expected I think they may be slightly her in the final results which will probably push Reform down a couple
Hobbes Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 Reform voters deserve a bullet in the back of the head. 1
KasioKas Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 On 7/4/2024 at 10:45 PM, Eat The Acid said: Sis it's +13 from 0 They will be 4th in seats and won't even be close. Expand Yes I know, overall it's not significant, but any gain whatsoever for reform is terrifying was my point... 1
John Slayne Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 On 7/4/2024 at 11:01 PM, Burn said: Reform gaining these seats will just make the Conservatives go even further to the right to win back Reform voters, which isn't good for anyone. The next election is already looking scary. Expand this is what's actually gonna happen. that's why i encouraged people to vote Green - we need to push Labour to the left and make chasing our vote worth their while, otherwise everyone will shift to the right 1
Marla Singer Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 Reform might not get many seats in the end but the number of votes they're getting so far is worrying 2
John Slayne Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 On 7/4/2024 at 10:45 PM, Eat The Acid said: Sis it's +13 from 0 They will be 4th in seats and won't even be close. Expand only because of FPTP. their popular vote share will be high and Tories will become nastier and more racist in order to snatch Reform voters back. we should be worried. OT: the thread title
RihannaRTT Posted July 4, 2024 Posted July 4, 2024 Third seat is pretty much the same as the MRPs too. LAB 46% (45-59%) REF 28% (18-27%) think WeThink should retire in shame bc that 59% their predictions have been the MOST out there of each seat so far
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