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UK Politics 🇬🇧🏛️ Election - Greens quadruple their seats!


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Posted

Greens double their seats!

From 1 to 2? :deadbanana:

  • Haha 8
Posted

Joyriding over the corpses of the conservatives!

 

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Insane how they even still have any support tho, and not happy to see ref*rm with that many

 

But conservatives having their worst performance in history is still a beautiful sight no matter what

Posted

PANNED! Political and electoral failure!

 

08a04696d32c9783453c8c27e8cd56f636d81457

Posted

ofc my nasty ass constituency is expected to stay tory

 

08a04696d32c9783453c8c27e8cd56f636d81457

Posted
  On 7/4/2024 at 10:10 PM, sunbathinganimal said:

ofc my nasty ass constituency is expected to stay tory

 

08a04696d32c9783453c8c27e8cd56f636d81457

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Same lol but my mum voted for me as proxy as I'm abroad so I don't have to deal with it. Not surprised, it's a shithole and why I left 

 

08a04696d32c9783453c8c27e8cd56f636d81457

  • Like 1
Posted

Reform potentially coming 2nd in seats is very dangerous :ace: + 13 wins from exit poll...

 

 

Posted

 

 

Something to celebrate :clap3:

  • Like 4
Posted

Yeah I'm nervous Reform are going to get more than the exit polls suggest. :dancehall2:

  • Like 4
Posted
  On 7/4/2024 at 9:39 PM, makeawish said:
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I did and I think it's probably wrong for mine. 44% chance of CON when every other poll said its 50-50 for SNP vs Labour. I don't doubt the overall feeling of the exit poll, but I'm very sceptical on ABZ South at least :rip:

 

--

 

That first result is a *little* concerning when you compare the opinion polls to the final. From my calculations, Labour is 47% of that vote, Reform is 29%. From the main 10 opinion polls, Labour was looking 47-57% and Reform 20-28%. So we should be expecting Labour on the lowest end of their polls, I'd say. YouGov and ElectoralCalculus might be worth looking into overall rn

 

Posted

The YouGov MRP was

LAB 431

CON 102

LD 72

SNP 18

REF 3

GRN 2

 

EC's MRP was

LAB 453

CON 78

LD 67

SNP 19

REF 7

GRN 3

Posted

 

LAB 50%, REF 27%

 

Opinion Polls: LAB 49-62%, REF 15-28%. Pretty much same as the first result but in this one it's EC and MoreInCommon that are the closer results. 

 

fwiw MIC's projection was:

LAB 430

CON 126

LD 52

SNP 16

REF 2

GRN 1

Posted
  On 7/4/2024 at 10:37 PM, Gwendolyn said:

Reform has come 2nd 2/2 times now, maybe America isn't looking that bad... 

 

 

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I wouldn't be too concerned about those yet because they *were* predicted to be 2nd in both of those based on the MRPs anyway. See:

https://tactical.vote/blyth-and-ashington/

 

If they start coming 2nd in places they weren't predicted too, then yeah it'll be a bit scarier. 

Posted
  On 7/4/2024 at 10:21 PM, KasioKas said:

Reform potentially coming 2nd in seats is very dangerous :ace: + 13 wins from exit poll...

 

 

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Sis it's +13 from 0 :deadbanana2: They will be 4th in seats and won't even be close. 

Posted (edited)

Sending hard pray to y'all for the Reform votes :deadbanana2:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Edited by discreetinside
Posted

Reform gaining these seats will just make the Conservatives go even further to the right to win back Reform voters, which isn't good for anyone. The next election is already looking scary.

  • Like 6
Posted
  On 7/4/2024 at 10:31 PM, Jack! said:

Yeah I'm nervous Reform are going to get more than the exit polls suggest. :dancehall2:

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I doubt. With the Tories seemingly getting more than expected I think they may be slightly her in the final results which will probably push Reform down a couple 

Posted

Reform voters deserve a bullet in the back of the head. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 7/4/2024 at 10:45 PM, Eat The Acid said:

Sis it's +13 from 0 :deadbanana2: They will be 4th in seats and won't even be close. 

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Yes I know, overall it's not significant, but any gain whatsoever for reform is terrifying was my point...

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 7/4/2024 at 11:01 PM, Burn said:

Reform gaining these seats will just make the Conservatives go even further to the right to win back Reform voters, which isn't good for anyone. The next election is already looking scary.

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this is what's actually gonna happen. that's why i encouraged people to vote Green - we need to push Labour to the left and make chasing our vote worth their while, otherwise everyone will shift to the right

  • Like 1
Posted

Reform might not get many seats in the end but the number of votes they're getting so far is worrying :biblionny: :biblionny: :biblionny:

  • Like 2
Posted
  On 7/4/2024 at 10:45 PM, Eat The Acid said:

Sis it's +13 from 0 :deadbanana2: They will be 4th in seats and won't even be close.

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only because of FPTP. their popular vote share will be high and Tories will become nastier and more racist in order to snatch Reform voters back. we should be worried.

 

OT: the thread title :suburban:

Posted

Third seat is pretty much the same as the MRPs too. 

LAB 46% (45-59%)

REF 28% (18-27%)

 

think WeThink should retire in shame bc that 59% :rip: :ahh:their predictions have been the MOST out there of each seat so far

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