movie Avatar: The Way of Water | Billions: 2 | Oscar Noms: 4 | Best Picture Noms: 1

[Donquizote]

13 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

It’ll be an embarrassing Denis Villeneuve snub all over again if he’s not nominated.

He was nominated for the first one, so I don't know whether AMPAS Director branch wants to nominate him again for the sequel.

Usually it's hard for director to get nominated for sequel.

[Space Cowboy]

I know Cameron’s excited after Avatar 2’s huge success, but he should stop spoiling Avatar 3 

[BNF91]

Avatar: The Way of Water should see some beautiful holds for the 6th and 7th weekends, with no competition and nothing but NFL playoffs to contend with (though that didn't seem to hurt it's past weekend performance at all). 

 

I am hoping for sub 25% drop next weekend, and sub 20% the weekend after. Would put it in the $633-640M domestic range with still a couple days before February. $650M+ by the time Titanic hits. But in any case, expect at least a $20M 6th wknd, with $24M being the high end. 

 

No Way Home/Avatar: TWOW post holiday wknd holds 

Wknd 4: -42%/-32%

Wknd 5: -38%/-29%

Wknd 6: -30%/-23%?

Wknd 7: -21%/-18%?

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by BNF91

[Europe]

12 hours ago, Space Cowboy said:

I know Cameron’s excited after Avatar 2’s huge success, but he should stop spoiling Avatar 3 

Did he spill anything interesting other than the fire nation stuff?

[GraceRandolph]

2 hours ago, AbeHicks said:

Did he spill anything interesting other than the fire nation stuff?

Spoiler

• Lo’ak is the narrator of Avatar 3, and Avatar 4 & 5 will have different narrators. 
• We will see the good side of humanity and the dark side of the Na’Vi, which is most likely the fire tribe. 
• Two new Na’Vi cultures will be introduced.

• New biomes of Pandora will be explored. 

 

[Europe]

25 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

  Hide contents

• Lo’ak is the narrator of Avatar 3, and Avatar 4 & 5 will have different narrators. 
• We will see the good side of humanity and the dark side of the Na’Vi, which is most likely the fire tribe. 
• Two new Na’Vi cultures will be introduced.

• New biomes of Pandora will be explored. 

 

That's pretty cool, thanks

[tootight49]

$610M DOM

$2.1B WW

By Sunday?

Edited January 17, 2023 by tootight49

[Eric.]

I thought it was okay. Kinda like a less grandiose version of the first one. 
 

And I don't think Kiri has a father, I think Grace created Kiri's embryo with her egg and some Na'vi genome that's used for creating avatars and then impregnated her own avatar in-vitro.

Or maybe it was something more corny, like Eywa fertilizing Grace's avatar with her essence when she died and Kiri is actually Grace.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Eric.

[BionicWooHoo]

On 1/15/2023 at 6:59 PM, GraceRandolph said:

I’m wondering if they don’t change the titles. The Seed Bearer is so bad.

Seed bearer sounds like what I should call myself after a night in the dark room of a gay nightclub

[tootight49]

$5M Tuesday possible? 

[BNF91]

43 minutes ago, tootight49 said:

$5M Tuesday possible? 

No way too high. $3-3.3M 

 

If it holds well then $605M+ by Sunday. 

 

 

[kwek_kwek]

So, in two weeks, it will surpass TFA as the 4th highest grossing film of all time.

[mystery]

On 1/11/2023 at 4:26 PM, mystery said:

The Way of Water if it grossed the same amount from Tuesday onwards as the other films (includes 4th Tuesday numbers of each movie):

Titanic - 919,351,713 - 2.3m
Avatar - 829,848,477 - 5m
Top Gun: Maverick - 759,094,643 - 5.9m
Spider-Man: No Way Home - 652,329,905 - 2.7m
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 641,923,340 - 3.8m
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 631,892,230 - 2.3m
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring - 603,707,503 - 1.3m
Avengers: Endgame - 602,048,293 - 2.9m
Avengers: Infinity War - 598,540,578 - 2.8m
Jumanji: The Next Level - 597,433,329 - 2.5m
---------------------------------------------------------------- FLOOR (less than this is not happening)
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - 583,566,915 - 1.1m
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - 575,235,923 - 1.1m
Rogue One - 571,627,641 - 2.5m
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 564,436,801 - 2.3m
Aquaman - 564,530,339 - 2.2m
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 557,393,066 - 1.5m
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 555,001,898 - 1.8m
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - 547,544,728 - 1.5m
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - 538,043,912 - 1m
Avatar: The Way of Water - 525,406,779 - 4.3m

The Way of Water is estimated for a 4.3m Tuesday which puts it at:

1. Top Gun: Maverick - 5.9m
2. Avatar - 5m
3. Avatar: The Way of Water - 4.3m
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 3.8m
5. Avengers: Endgame - 2.9m

Choose your fighter! I personally feel it is comfortably aiming for a 650m - 700m window.

Here is how the chart changes after the fifth weekend: 
 

The Way of Water if it grossed the same amount from Monday onwards as other films:

 

Titanic - 930,335,491
Avatar - 817,299,036
Top Gun: Maverick - 765,689,233
---------------------------------------------------------- current figures place it here with the same pace
Spider-Man: No Way Home - 674,620,588 
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 665,633,478
Black Panther - 665,245,233
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 650,108,332
---------------------------------------------------------- FLOOR (less than this is not happening)
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring - 644,583,769
Jumanji: The Next Level - 631,332,335
Avengers: Endgame - 627,378,757
Avengers: Infinity War - 623,567,650
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - 625,845,588
----------------------------------------------------------
Avatar: The Way of Water - 572,401,348

Choose your fighter! It seems like 675m is emerging as a really exciting figure for it as the movie is still outgrossing No Way Home daily with a decent gap between them. It seems like 675 - 725m might be a window for it. 

Edited January 17, 2023 by mystery

[tootight49]

1 hour ago, BNF91 said:

No way too high. $3-3.3M 

 

If it holds well then $605M+ by Sunday. 

 

 

Aren’t you using Rogue One as comp for a 60+ fall?
Some people are still on Holiday/vacation from MLK so there’s spillover to Tues

[mystery]

2 minutes ago, tootight49 said:

Aren’t you using Rogue One as comp for a 60+ fall?
Some people are still on Holiday/vacation from MLK so there’s spillover to Tues

I think Rogue One as a comp is gone at this point.

[mystery]

Here are the final global trajectories for the movie:

If it kept the current international/domestic split: 

69.9% for international and 30.1% for domestic 
----------------------------
2,425b with 729m domestic - end of its domestic range
2,400b with 722m domestic
2,375b with 714m domestic
2,350b with 707m domestic
----------------------------
2,325b with 699m domestic 
2,300b with 692m domestic 
2,275b with 684m domestic 
2,250b with 677m domestic - optimal target when taking into account No Way Home domestic
2,225b with 669m domestic
2,200b with 662m domestic - outgrosses Titanic
2,175b with 654m domestic - domestic floor
---------------------------- 
2,150b with 647m domestic 
2,125b with 639m domestic 
2,100b with 632m domestic 
2,075b with 624m domestic - outgrosses Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2,050b with 617m domestic - outgrosses Avengers: Infinity War
2,025b with 609m domestic 
2,000b with 602m domestic
----------------------------

If the international/domestic split returned to what it usually is it: 

70.5% for international and 29.5% for domestic 
----------------------------
2,475b with 730m domestic - end of its domestic range
2,450b with 722m domestic
2,425b with 715m domestic 
2,400b with 708m domestic
2,375b with 700m domestic
----------------------------
2,350b with 693m domestic
2,325b with 685m domestic 
2,300b with 678m domestic - optimal target when taking into account No Way Home domestic
2,275b with 671m domestic 
2,250b with 663m domestic 
2,225b with 656m domestic - domestic floor
----------------------------
2,200b with 649m domestic 
2,175b with 641m domestic - outgrosses Titanic
2,150b with 634m domestic 
2,125b with 626m domestic 
2,100b with 619m domestic 
2,075b with 612m domestic - outgrosses Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2,050b with 604m domestic - outgrosses Avengers: Infinity War
2,025b with 597m domestic 
2,000b with 590m domestic
----------------------------

Edited January 17, 2023 by mystery

[tootight49]

41 minutes ago, mystery said:

I think Rogue One as a comp is gone at this point.

That’s the point. No reason to think Tuesday would fall 61% from Monday like Rogue one to have a $3M day unless a person was still using RO comp. 

[zzmyth]

I can see this crossing or landing very very close to 700M in the US and 1.700M OS

 

I say it will end up shy 2.4B WW (If China rereleases it... I can see it adding another 200M)

[mystery]

5 minutes ago, tootight49 said:

That’s the point. No reason to think Tuesday would fall 61% from Monday like Rogue one to have a $3M day unless a person was still using RO comp. 

Yeah I agree!

[Liafen]

3 hours ago, Eric. said:

I thought it was okay. Kinda like a less grandiose version of the first one. 
 

 

Her connection to Eywa makes it kinda obvious that it's the latter.

[BNF91]

You guys are gonna be disappointed when it does drop 55-60% or more. We are coming off the inflated MLK Monday, and we now know A2 is playing like a weekend film. Weekdays won't play at the max potential like they did in December/first week of January. The runtime kills people's chance to see it on a weekday. Which is why we are seeing A2 enjoy ridiculous weekend multipliers with these massive Saturday increases. We should expect standard weekdays drops. There's no reason to expect anything close to $5M Tuesday. 

 

It's not about the Rogue One comp. It is making 3x as much as that film already and it's left in the dust. But it doeant mean that one abandons the seasonal comparison between winter 2017 and winter 2023. 

 

If the Monday comes in higher than the estimates which it should ($8.5-9M) then we should really be ready for a $3-3.5M Tuesday. That's just the natural historical dropoff from the MLK Monday. An overperformance of $3.5-4M would be lovely, but I'm not getting my hopes up until I see it happen. 

[mystery]

35 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

You guys are gonna be disappointed when it does drop 55-60% or more. We are coming off the inflated MLK Monday, and we now know A2 is playing like a weekend film. Weekdays won't play at the max potential like they did in December/first week of January. The runtime kills people's chance to see it on a weekday. Which is why we are seeing A2 enjoy ridiculous weekend multipliers with these massive Saturday increases. We should expect standard weekdays drops. There's no reason to expect anything close to $5M Tuesday. 

 

It's not about the Rogue One comp. It is making 3x as much as that film already and it's left in the dust. But it doeant mean that one abandons the seasonal comparison between winter 2017 and winter 2023. 

 

If the Monday comes in higher than the estimates which it should ($8.5-9M) then we should really be ready for a $3-3.5M Tuesday. That's just the natural historical dropoff from the MLK Monday. An overperformance of $3.5-4M would be lovely, but I'm not getting my hopes up until I see it happen. 

Oh I didn't realize Monday was a holiday there, a 60% drop would make sense then.

[BNF91]

$9.5M 5th Monday OS. Very strong still. $1.345B OS total.

 

Still waiting on domestic actuals for the holiday weekend. 

 

Worldwide total at $1.916B as of Monday. 

[mystery]

9 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

$9.5M 5th Monday OS. Very strong still. $1.345B OS total.

 

Still waiting on domestic actuals for the holiday weekend. 

 

Worldwide total at $1.916B as of Monday. 

Amazing international numbers, I can see it smashing 2b on Saturday.

[BNF91]

Looks like Monday domestic is taking a hit and instead of increasing, is decreasing by quite a bit. $7.3M, down almost a whole million. The runtime showing its negative affect on school and work-oriented evenings. Really hoping for $3M Tuesday.