Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 im too scared to post a who wins each state prediction but regardless of the results here's how i think the states will vote from most lest to most right Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin North Carolina Georgia Arizona Nevada lash me if you want
Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 For reference this is how it was in 2020: Michigan Nevada Pennsylvania Wisconsin Arizona Georgia North Carolina 1
Tusk Posted October 19 Posted October 19 2 hours ago, Blade said: I mean. This could be those who didn't want to vote for Trump or Biden but now voting for a woman.
Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 4 minutes ago, Tusk said: I mean. This could be those who didn't want to vote for Trump or Biden but now voting for a woman. i think it's 2 things: 1. Georgia is one of the states that grew in population compared to 2020 and this grew in registered voters. 2. A good ground game for Dems + high enthusiasm on both sides is bringing out new voters. Plus Gen Z is a higher share of the electorate than in 2020. 2
Relampago. Posted October 19 Posted October 19 Just now, Communion said: dddd it feels like some of y'all - even the reasonable ones - are letting fear manifest into radical optimism (), but then falling into the pitfalls of wishcasting. I said it before, but the worst thing to do is try and disassemble data (see: unskewing) when it shows you a conclusion you don't like. Add more data, don't try to dismantle or subtract from existing data a subset of data that doesn't actually exist. The user in question is asking why Trump is leading in polling. Well, the logical answer is that Biden won by a very small margin in 2020 and that such a tiny margin is simply not being recreated now. AZ 2020 Margin: Biden +0.30 AZ 2020 Final Prediction (RCP): Biden +0.90 (Overestimated Biden by +0.60) AZ 2024 Current Prediction (RCP): Trump: +1.8 AZ 2020 Final Prediction (RCP): Biden +3.1 (Overestimated Biden by +2.80) AZ 2024 Current Prediction (RCP): Trump: +2.0 AZ 2024 Current Prediction (VoteHub): Trump: +1.20 AZ 2024 Current Prediction (Silver Bulletin): Trump: +1.80 What element of the data above could lead someone to objectively argue that the Dems' strategy of shifting moderate white voters is working? In fact, I've noticed in RCP's aggregate that Harris has never been in the lead for Arizona except for a single day, where she led by 0.2%. This is the inherent tension of being a non-critical advocate. I'm not saying your time is being wasted to encourage votes in Arizona, but no movement is manifesting the data that is available. In fact, Arizona has moved almost a full point to the right in the last month of polling. Is every poll wrong? What about aggregates like RCP who were close in 2020? We're arguing different points. I'm not saying AZ is going blue again this election, it's likely not as the most red state. But the implication of your post is making it seem like it's the same Barry Goldwater state of the 60s or SB 1070/Jan Brewer/Doug Dookie state of the 10s. If you wanted to answer that user's question, ironically your post to me should have been your answer to them. Not "AZ is a largely culturally conservative state." which completely erases the stark changes in the electorate and in-state elections that have been happening since 2016, starting with Arpaio finally losing his election. If Arizona was largely conservative still, it wouldn't be considered a swing state at all. I know you didn't mean it this way based on this response, but the original response was largely misleading and ignores the overall movement to the left AZ has been experiencing when the country as a whole is largely moving right. It ignores how immigration, healthcare and economy have traditionally been huge issues for AZ voters and all three of those are arguably the biggest three issues in the election, with only one favoring Harris. I don't think AZ is going blue this election (as I've said in earlier posts, even on the ground it feels like Trump has an edge), but a *tilt* red is not "largely conservative". 3
Sannie Posted October 19 Posted October 19 13 minutes ago, Blade said: im too scared to post a who wins each state prediction but regardless of the results here's how i think the states will vote from most lest to most right Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin North Carolina Georgia Arizona Nevada lash me if you want MI, PA, WI, NV, GA, NC, AZ Based solely on my "vibes". First four go blue and seal the election while the others go red.
Relampago. Posted October 19 Posted October 19 But if AZ would like to vote for the climate change denier while we had high 100s temps in October, then so be it The future is in Tim Walz's Minnesota's hands! 1 1
GhostBox Posted October 19 Posted October 19 Kamala's about to have one of the biggest rallies of the election 👏🏼 1
Tovitov Posted October 19 Posted October 19 The way that ******* Atlas Intel poll is going to swing the aggregates towards Trump even though it technically shows movement towards Harris Don't go looking for it, I suffered enough watching the stupid stream. They do have the Electoral College as a tie though 2
Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 (edited) Kamala wins the EC!!! @Tovitov edit: WAIT THIS GIVES A TIE LMAO Edited October 19 by Blade 2
Armani? Posted October 19 Posted October 19 2 hours ago, Communion said: Because these are largely culturally conservative states who Dems only won due to a once-in-a-generation pandemic and insane opponent. This is funny and might get some discussion for being timely to a meme but Dems have basically already tried to do the "not voting makes you unfuckable" as a message to black men, so who knows exactly how much it worked for 2022. Maybe @Armani? knows if black male turnout for 2022 was higher than in 2018. Definitely not lmao. Gen Z Black men were only 4% of Gen Z voters in the last midterms 1
Communion Posted October 19 Posted October 19 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Relampago. said: We're arguing different points. I'm not saying AZ is going blue again this election, it's likely not as the most red state. But the implication of your post is making it seem like it's the same Barry Goldwater state of the 60s or SB 1070/Jan Brewer/Doug Dookie state of the 10s. If you wanted to answer that user's question, ironically your post to me should have been your answer to them. Not "AZ is a largely culturally conservative state." which completely erases the stark changes in the electorate and in-state elections that have been happening since 2016, starting with Arpaio finally losing his election. If Arizona was largely conservative still, it wouldn't be considered a swing state at all. I know you didn't mean it this way based on this response, but the original response was largely misleading and ignores the overall movement to the left AZ has been experiencing when the country as a whole is largely moving right. It ignores how immigration, healthcare and economy have traditionally been huge issues for AZ voters and all three of those are arguably the biggest three issues in the election, with only one favoring Harris. I don't think AZ is going blue this election (as I've said in earlier posts, even on the ground it feels like Trump has an edge), but a *tilt* red is not "largely conservative". Except I'm very intentionally referring to the state as conservative because - if Trump wins it - there must be an acknowledgement of a strain of economic conservatism within the very specific demographics and cultural corridors that Democrats are trying to win over. If white women of a state vote for Trump, even after he gutted their bodily autonomy, what could the reason be? "Self-misogyny"? I take issue with just the overall conversation and sentiment of those hoping to re-orient Democrats around affluent white suburbanites because it inevitably tries to create a class-blind politics. And obviously as a socialist, I don't agree with the removal of class as an element to how people understand politics. That affluent white moderates are an unstable political cohort whose behavior can't be understood or accurately predicted if people do not want to discuss class as a political force. Like people now are obsessive with the "right-wing polls are flooding the average!!" argument for some aggregates, but then when you look back, aggregates like RCP - accused of having a right-lean bias due to the slant of the owner / site - largely were set to be as off as 538 in Biden's favor in 2020 until a set final polls (Rasmussen, Trafalgar) brought the result closer in 2020. A phenomenon that didn't happen for 538 in their tallying and aggregate. Are polls then showing a historical record of *inflating* and *over-estimating* moderate white votes for Dems in the state? At this point in time, multiple aggregates were showing Biden winning the state by over 3 (!) points. I get the skepticism because the inverse seemingly happened in 2022. With RCP's model nailing Mark Kelly's margin of victory 3 weeks before election, before swinging to a 0.40% win for Masters that just didn't manifest. So is their Senate model just off and their presidential model accurate? But in 2020, their Senate polling for the special election similarly overestimated Mark Kelly by 3 points. Yet also seemingly underestimated Sinema by 3 points in 2018 despite the same opponent that Kelly would go on to face in 2020 following McCain's death. Did pollsters then just over-compensate in 2022 because they largely over-estimated Biden and tried to weigh for what was a shy Trump voter? Problem now? Their models are showing the opposite. Trump strongly in the lead while the Republican running for Senate is left to flounder: Are pollsters still over-correcting for Biden in 2020? Even after Masters performed poorly? But if so, why did Biden perform so poorly in 2020 versus polls to begin with? Is Lake just a horrible candidate that she lacks the same magical appeal Trump has? Is there a culture growing towards inverse ticket-splitting? As someone who finds the data story interesting, and thinks having questions is important, the idea of "well it's moving to the left even if we cab't see it in the numbers" leaves me with more questions than answers. Edited October 19 by Communion
shelven Posted October 19 Posted October 19 The AtlasIntel polls implying an almost 3-point EC bias in favour of the Democrats I guess in their universe we also get an R+15 Florida, a D+10 New York and a D+15 California 2 1
Tovitov Posted October 19 Posted October 19 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Blade said: Kamala wins the EC!!! @Tovitov edit: WAIT THIS GIVES A TIE LMAO Every single projection(538, Nate Silver, VoteHub) is going to swing towards Trump because this pollster got lucky once. I think I'm done @Blade I don't think I can handle the reactions when the estimates go 53/47 Trump. Polling is dead and we're watching a bunch of nerds use paid surveys to torture us with it's corpse Spoiler I'm not even sure I'm joking at this point Edited October 19 by Tovitov 3
Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 7 minutes ago, shelven said: The AtlasIntel polls implying an almost 3-point EC bias in favour of the Democrats I guess in their universe we also get an R+15 Florida, a D+10 New York and a D+15 California I know the margins are exaggerated but all will trend red. Not to mention, TX has a huge amount of new registered voters. Trump is going to win TX again and net more raw votes from TX than in 2020. The national vote will be much redder regardless of what happens in the 7 swing states, all signs are pointing to it.
shelven Posted October 19 Posted October 19 1 minute ago, Blade said: I know the margins are exaggerated but all will trend red. Not to mention, TX has a huge amount of new registered voters. Trump is going to win TX again and net more raw votes from TX than in 2020. The national vote will be much redder regardless of what happens in the 7 swing states, all signs are pointing to it. Oh yeah, I definitely agree the EC bias will almost certainly shrink this year compared to 2020. But until I see it with my own eyes, I'm not believing it's going to shift from a 4-point Republican advantage to a 3-point Democratic advantage in a single cycle.
Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 11 minutes ago, Tovitov said: Every single projection(538, Nate Silver, VoteHub) is going to swing towards Trump because this pollster got lucky once. I think I'm done @Blade I don't think I can handle the reactions when the estimates go 53/47 Trump. Polling is dead and we're watching a bunch of nerds use paid surveys to torture us with it's corpse Reveal hidden contents I'm not even sure I'm joking at this point Sis the fact that we know how these polls are going to affect these models, mind you polls that are suggesting michigan is to the right of NC, just goes to show not to put too much weight into the models. 1
Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 1 minute ago, shelven said: Oh yeah, I definitely agree the EC bias will almost certainly shrink this year compared to 2020. But until I see it with my own eyes, I'm not believing it's going to shift from a 4-point Republican advantage to a 3-point Democratic advantage in a single cycle. I'm thinking anywhere from -1 to +1 for the EC bias 1
GhostBox Posted October 19 Posted October 19 I'm so over all the right wing pollsters 💀 we hardly get any high quality polls anymore. 2
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 19 Posted October 19 These polls....they are just all over the place. You'd think we'd see some trend across most polls but they all contradict each other 2
HBK-79 Posted October 19 Posted October 19 2 hours ago, Blade said: NV is such a weird state electorally because if you don't meet a certain margin in 2 counties, you basically get trounced by the rural voters in the other dozen or so counties Still, NV didn't even teeter over the edge in 2016.
Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 9 minutes ago, HBK-79 said: Still, NV didn't even teeter over the edge in 2016. Hillary holding it while losing basically everything else and ALMOST losing Minnesota and Maine was impressive. I'll give her her 10's in NV. 5
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