justin. Posted October 19 Posted October 19 2 hours ago, FameFatale said: Lord have mercy they're already starting the voting machines rumors and drama. It's going to be a long November. It's going to be a long several months if he loses 1
Yog Posted October 19 Posted October 19 1 minute ago, justin. said: It's going to be a long several months if he loses Expect I'll be ready for his ass 3
Sannie Posted October 19 Posted October 19 1 minute ago, justin. said: It's going to be a long several months if he loses Sure, but I don't think it'll be anything more than an annoyance. Anyone who tries to do something won't have Trump in the White House to protect them. 5 minutes ago, Blade said: So annoyingly hard to tell what this means. Typically high turnout is great for Dems, but who knows if things could shift this time around. I am a fan of historical trends...
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 19 Posted October 19 1 hour ago, FameFatale said: I saw a tweet that said her team needs to schedule Joe Rogan at the same time as Trump and get them both in there in front of the mic and lock the doors He would call it a coup lol 1
justin. Posted October 19 Posted October 19 40 minutes ago, Sannie said: Sure, but I don't think it'll be anything more than an annoyance. Anyone who tries to do something won't have Trump in the White House to protect them. Idk sister... I live in a deeply red area, and his followers are itching for a reason to get violent.
Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 2 minutes ago, justin. said: Idk sister... I live in a deeply red area, and his followers are itching for a reason to get violent. I'm honestly shocked covid didn't do a number on them and take most of the rabid ones out. This isn't a "red state voters deserve to die!!!" take but I feel like covid disproportionately impacted them in late 2020 and throughout 2021.
HBK-79 Posted October 19 Posted October 19 So why is Drumpf leading in the AZ and GA polls? Have the John McCain and the Stacey Abrams effects worn off? I have doubts about NC. And I refuse to believe that he's ahead in NV. Clark County, where my relatives live, will never fail the Dems. 1
Blade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 38 minutes ago, HBK-79 said: So why is Drumpf leading in the AZ and GA polls? Have the John McCain and the Stacey Abrams effects worn off? I have doubts about NC. And I refuse to believe that he's ahead in NV. Clark County, where my relatives live, will never fail the Dems. NV is such a weird state electorally because if you don't meet a certain margin in 2 counties, you basically get trounced by the rural voters in the other dozen or so counties 1 1
Communion Posted October 19 Posted October 19 (edited) 40 minutes ago, HBK-79 said: So why is Drumpf leading in the AZ and GA polls? Because these are largely culturally conservative states who Dems only won due to a once-in-a-generation pandemic and insane opponent. 54 minutes ago, FameFatale said: This is funny and might get some discussion for being timely to a meme but Dems have basically already tried to do the "not voting makes you unfuckable" as a message to black men, so who knows exactly how much it worked for 2022. Maybe @Armani? knows if black male turnout for 2022 was higher than in 2018. Edited October 19 by Communion 1
Communion Posted October 19 Posted October 19 @Blade Praise for the literal most conservative Democrat in national office is one thing but posting radical centrist reply-guys who got micro-followings on Twitter from making their personalities nothing but random YIMBY platitudes? Sis ,are you trying to get me to set myself on fire? lkjnjjn (I'm just teasing but 99% of these people are literally just Republicans) 1
Communion Posted October 19 Posted October 19 This INSANE nightmare blunt rotation. (Them nearly all being straight white men who were voting Republican as recently as like 2012 and with some weirdly prominent fetish for Asian women) 1 2
justin. Posted October 19 Posted October 19 1 hour ago, Blade said: I'm honestly shocked covid didn't do a number on them and take most of the rabid ones out. This isn't a "red state voters deserve to die!!!" take but I feel like covid disproportionately impacted them in late 2020 and throughout 2021. It's honestly a little wild. But I also know of several who ended up getting the vaccine because a family member got COVID, and it scared them. And a couple of men I know quietly got the vaccine because their wives convinced them.
Relampago. Posted October 19 Posted October 19 We're still pushing the "Arizona is the same as it's always been!" narrative I see.
Relampago. Posted October 19 Posted October 19 2 hours ago, Blade said: It is getting fairly tired that every piece of news is being squeezed and contorted in a way that it always has to benefit Trump. I'm sure half of it is these people looking for clicks but the other half is using 2016 as a blueprint, looking for evidence that we're losing a functionally tied race. The mental damage that did on us will take so long to recover from, and people will look at signs like this to say "I told you!" and we'll need another decade to recover from 2024. 5
woohoo Posted October 19 Posted October 19 3 minutes ago, Blade said: "OTHER" COME THRU FOR KAMALA I do wonder how those will break down. I had heard Pennsylvania usually breaks 70/30 to dems but I know nothing about NC. It's much redder. I'd almost say 50/50 or 60/40.
Communion Posted October 19 Posted October 19 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Relampago. said: We're still pushing the "Arizona is the same as it's always been!" narrative I see. dddd it feels like some of y'all - even the reasonable ones - are letting fear manifest into radical optimism (), but then falling into the pitfalls of wishcasting. I said it before, but the worst thing to do is try and disassemble data (see: unskewing) when it shows you a conclusion you don't like. Add more data, don't try to dismantle or subtract from existing data a subset of data that doesn't actually exist. The user in question is asking why Trump is leading in polling. Well, the logical answer is that Biden won by a very small margin in 2020 and that such a tiny margin is simply not being recreated now. AZ 2020 Margin: Biden +0.30 AZ 2020 Final Prediction (RCP): Biden +0.90 (Overestimated Biden by +0.60) AZ 2024 Current Prediction (RCP): Trump: +1.8 AZ 2020 Final Prediction (538): Biden +3.1 (Overestimated Biden by +2.80) AZ 2024 Current Prediction (538): Trump: +2.0 AZ 2024 Current Prediction (VoteHub): Trump: +1.20 AZ 2024 Current Prediction (Silver Bulletin): Trump: +1.80 What element of the data above could lead someone to objectively argue that the Dems' strategy of shifting moderate white voters is working? In fact, I've noticed in RCP's aggregate that Harris has never been in the lead for Arizona except for a single day, where she led by 0.2%. This is the inherent tension of being a non-critical advocate. I'm not saying your time is being wasted to encourage votes in Arizona, but no movement is manifesting the data that is available. In fact, Arizona has moved almost a full point to the right in the last month of polling. Is every poll wrong? What about aggregates like RCP who were close in 2020? Edited October 19 by Communion 1 1
Sannie Posted October 19 Posted October 19 11 minutes ago, Relampago. said: It is getting fairly tired that every piece of news is being squeezed and contorted in a way that it always has to benefit Trump. I'm sure half of it is these people looking for clicks but the other half is using 2016 as a blueprint, looking for evidence that we're losing a functionally tied race. The mental damage that did on us will take so long to recover from, and people will look at signs like this to say "I told you!" and we'll need another decade to recover from 2024. King, your optimism has come so far. You better drag those doubters.
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