family.guy123 Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Or is Jill Stein running on loan forgiveness too? Let us know 1
Raspberries Posted October 18 Posted October 18 I can't decide if I think Jack Smith's stuff getting unsealed tomorrow will do a big fat nothing or if it'll motivate people (both ways) 1
GhostBox Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Trump just isn't a funny person when he tries 💀 kinda ironic because he's such a stupid ass any other time 1
dman4life Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Tapped on the #Kamalablackface hashtag and this was the first thing I saw. Nearly dropped my phone 7
Sannie Posted October 18 Posted October 18 3 minutes ago, Raspberries said: I can't decide if I think Jack Smith's stuff getting unsealed tomorrow will do a big fat nothing or if it'll motivate people (both ways) Oh, it'll do nothing to move the needle. What matters is what it shows us in terms of how airtight Jack Smith's case is. If Trump loses and this goes to court, there is a very big chance he goes to jail (how and for how long IDK but still). That's what's important to me. ----- What're the chances if Kamala wins and the Senate ends up being 48-52, Collins and Murkowski vote with Dems for things like judicial appointments and cabinet members? Part of me wants to think Trump losing again will embolden them to be like, "we don't have to vote in line with Trump, we can do what's best". But I don't have high hopes. 3
FameFatale Posted October 18 Posted October 18 3 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Trump just isn't a funny person when he tries 💀 kinda ironic because he's such a stupid ass any other time What's crazy is I actually thought he seems less coo coo crazy when reading jokes somebody wrote from him off the paper compared to rallies. There were some good jokes. I'm not gonna lie.
Blade Posted October 18 Posted October 18 With the contrasting Univision townhalls and Fox news interview behind us, I'm thinking what can genuinely move the needle in her favor. Here's what I think: - Joe Rogan. She must do this. She's not going to lose any voters over this. This is like the Fox News interview but MUCH less aggressive since, as others have pointed out, Rogan is quite dumb and will gawk at his guest saying anything even remotely profound. - Some sort of joint Taylor Swift event. - A last pitch ad/infomercial for the swing states. I believe Obama '08 did something similar. Notice I left out the CNN town hall. Barring an incredible performance/good viral moment for her, I don't think this will move the needle. It's kind of unnecessary and could also result in a gaffe/blunder so why risk it? 7 2
Touchdown Posted October 18 Posted October 18 12 minutes ago, Vermillion said: kiiiii the way he has had 10 interviews apologizing and defending himself since the Kamala interview. I have to laugh. 1 1
shelven Posted October 18 Posted October 18 1 hour ago, Communion said: I hate cautioning against early voting figures since the kneejerk from some will be I just want people to think Harris is gonna lose - even though I've already said I think she eeks out a win solely with WI/MI/PA - but I do think, just from a data standpoint, I feel like the obvious answer is that trends for voting early exist in the context of access trends. COVID saw a lot of these mail-by and early voting practices ushered in, but many of them being new was going to cause initial hesitation, alongside the issue of COViD. We're now 4 years later, with even more work to expand early voting and voting access. 2024, in all context, is the first *real* election with such expanded voting access. I think it was the good sis @Vroom Vroom (sorry if not ljnkn) who asked how I felt about 2024 since my gut was largely right in 2022 but I also don't think it's any like... meaningful intuition. I just.. listen to what the data we're being shown tells us? To take it at face value and keep it moving? (ex: unskewing is for the mentally ill). And all the early voting analysts have been clear that early voting should not be used as an indicator of how the final vote will end up. But to be taken at face value: "wow, x amount of people have voted so far". That's it. Because cultural changes could just also mean that voters in a state have simply accepted early voting as a benefit and now do so en masse, not that waves of people will vote on election day based on surges in early voting. A shift, not a surge. Yup, some of us are old enough to remember when we were getting daily posts about how the "massive turnout in the big cities" meant that Texas was definitely going blue in 2020, and welp... It's really tempting to try to read into the early voting numbers, but the biggest thing to remember is that the early vote data we get isn't actually telling us who people are voting for. Like you said, all it's telling us is that people are voting, but we have reason to believe that higher turnout can benefit either candidate. 1
Sannie Posted October 18 Posted October 18 11 minutes ago, Blade said: With the contrasting Univision townhalls and Fox news interview behind us, I'm thinking what can genuinely move the needle in her favor. Here's what I think: - Joe Rogan. She must do this. She's not going to lose any voters over this. This is like the Fox News interview but MUCH less aggressive since, as others have pointed out, Rogan is quite dumb and will gawk at his guest saying anything even remotely profound. - Some sort of joint Taylor Swift event. - A last pitch ad/infomercial for the swing states. I believe Obama '08 did something similar. Notice I left out the CNN town hall. Barring an incredible performance/good viral moment for her, I don't think this will move the needle. It's kind of unnecessary and could also result in a gaffe/blunder so why risk it? She seems a lot better and on her game recently so I don't have worries for this town hall. Like, she is totally locked in and right on time.
Save-Me-Oprah Posted October 18 Posted October 18 I'm sorry but Trump has such GREAT comedic timing that speech had me cackling 1
Sannie Posted October 18 Posted October 18 1 minute ago, shelven said: Yup, some of us are old enough to remember when we were getting daily posts about how the "massive turnout in the big cities" meant that Texas was definitely going blue in 2020, and welp... It's really tempting to try to read into the early voting numbers, but the biggest thing to remember is that the early vote data we get isn't actually telling us who people are voting for. Like you said, all it's telling us is that people are voting, but we have reason to believe that higher turnout can benefit either candidate. Sure, but big numbers coming out of Detroit of all places is pretty in-your-face when it comes to how Dems are doing. It's not the be-all-end-all, but it is obviously representative of ground game and enthusiasm on the left. 1
shelven Posted October 18 Posted October 18 2 minutes ago, Sannie said: Sure, but big numbers coming out of Detroit of all places is pretty in-your-face when it comes to how Dems are doing. It's not the be-all-end-all, but it is obviously representative of ground game and enthusiasm on the left. People said the same thing about places like Austin and Dallas in 2020. I'm obviously not saying enthusiasm in Detroit is a bad thing, but I'd just be careful about drawing too big of a conclusion based on one good sign in one big Dem-friendly city. We know essentially nothing about how the Detroit result might differ compared to 2020, whether this enthusiastic early voting is countered by equally or more enthusiastic election day voting, and whether Dem-unfriendly cities/areas will turn out to be just as enthusiastic in the long run. 5
FameFatale Posted October 18 Posted October 18 13 minutes ago, nadiamendell said: A guy I went to high school with is constantly posting this stupid chart every day talking about "Trump winning by a landslide" 2
Recommended Posts