Sannie Posted October 14 Posted October 14 1 hour ago, Jesterpink said: oh my god i've been waiting for over two months to finally be approved and post in this thread!!! Y'all are so cerebral I've learned so much I just want to give everyone here kudos =') hmmm i guess to make this post relevant i'll say im disappointed in NC early voting numbers I feel like for Kamala to win NC she's going to need higher numbers, but IDK maybe I'm wrong A fantastic time to join. Welcome to our little slice of manic delusion. 8
hausofdave Posted October 14 Posted October 14 Those republican internals are apocalyptic. The numbers are genuinely terrible for Senate Republicans from an R pollster. Cruz + 1? Brown +6? Slotkin +8? 1 2
Armani? Posted October 14 Posted October 14 11 minutes ago, Blade said: this lowkey terrible @Armani? Her best showing being just after the swap is messy Guess we can hope that decline is more concentrated outside the battlegrounds but 1
woohoo Posted October 14 Posted October 14 3 minutes ago, hausofdave said: Those republican internals are apocalyptic. The numbers are genuinely terrible for Senate Republicans from an R pollster. Cruz + 1? Brown +6? Slotkin +8? Gives me a glimmer of hope for teester but +17 fr trump in Montana. That's a big mountain to hurdle to jump for a democratic senator
Vermillion Posted October 14 Posted October 14 I'm sad but not surprised for Sherrod. There's been solid pieces written for years now I've tracked on Ohio's turn deep red. I wasn't aware it's been the second most expensive congressional race in history (Open Secrets).
Armani? Posted October 14 Posted October 14 I guess the silver lining for that trend is that it also shows that % overwhelmingly went uncommitted than to Trump which doesn't help 1
Blade Posted October 14 Posted October 14 1 minute ago, Armani? said: I guess the silver lining for that trend is that it also shows that % overwhelmingly went uncommitted than to Trump which doesn't help If she's *barely* winning Independents on average but up 2-3 pts on average? Her white numbers be phenomenal. 1 2
FameFatale Posted October 14 Posted October 14 2 minutes ago, Blade said: If she's *barely* winning Independents on average but up 2-3 pts on average? Her white numbers be phenomenal. I think white women will pull her through.
woohoo Posted October 14 Posted October 14 I wonder if there are a sect of first time female voters upset over roe that will show up Election Day that haven't been accounted for. 1
Armani? Posted October 14 Posted October 14 Them using that trash Siena poll showing a 15 point drop is sending me 1 2
Armani? Posted October 14 Posted October 14 6 minutes ago, FameFatale said: I think white women will pull her through. Gen Z White women maybe & lesser extent Millennials. But overall, I can see a 1 or 2 point shift to Dems at most. But we'll see what Taylor's magic did. 2 1
bunnyeyes Posted October 14 Posted October 14 Kind maddening to see people claim trump will preserve the constitution and that's why they're voting for him after all he's done I actually do now believe he will attempt to stay in power though I don't know how that'll play out 1
Vermillion Posted October 14 Posted October 14 6 minutes ago, woohoo said: I wonder if there are a sect of first time female voters upset over roe that will show up Election Day that haven't been accounted for. So, the abortion inverse of the shy Trump voter concept unpacked to death by every political scientist. I like this angle.
Blade Posted October 14 Posted October 14 note this is not TOTAL turnout. This is early voting turnout. In 2020 the GOP turnout before election day was a much smaller number than Dems'. In 2024 i'd expect the GOP to at least match or even exceed Dems in 2024 compared to 2020 compared to how small the GOP's early 2020 numbers were during the pandemic. 2 1
Communion Posted October 14 Posted October 14 10 minutes ago, Blade said: If she's *barely* winning Independents on average but up 2-3 pts on average? Her white numbers be phenomenal. Dems: *actively conflating bipartisanship for rejection of hyper-partisanship out of some misguided belief in racial depolarization happening* Dems: *might only be saved by gender polarization worsening and white women hating Republicans* 1 1
woohoo Posted October 14 Posted October 14 2 minutes ago, Vermillion said: So, the abortion inverse of the shy Trump voter concept unpacked to death by every political scientist. I like this angle. Yeah I just see a lot of polls with registered voters and likely voters but I guess you could see those breakdowns from registered voting women now that I think about it. It's just anecdotal but I know a few women who never voted and don't answer the phone unless the number is a contact so I wonder how many more are out there. I also see a lot of the same young women on TikTok.
FameFatale Posted October 14 Posted October 14 I really do think alot of the personal post Roe stories are having an impact on women when they realize the issues it's causing for women who actively want to have children but the laws are so vague for states during miscarriages and IVF. 2 1
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