Armani? Posted October 13 Posted October 13 CBS - ABC - Quote The contest stands at 82-13%, Harris-Trump, among Black people who are registered to vote; that compares with 87-12% in the 2020 exit poll (a slight 5 points lower for Harris; no better for Trump). Black women are at 87-10% now (compared with 90-9% in 2020); Black men are at 76-18% (compared with 79-19% four years ago). These differences from 2020 aren't statistically significant. NBC - Quote The poll finds Harris with her biggest advantages over Trump among Black voters (84%-11%) There is still a downward trend in the last overall crosstab average of 14% Trump with these 3, so good. Surprised NBC still got the lowest of these 3 though despite swinging hard 1 2
Marianah Adkins Posted October 13 Posted October 13 14 minutes ago, RihRihGirrrl said: Idc I will never understand how any immigrant can vote for Trump when she demonizes immigrants every chance he gets Assimiliation changes the priorities of immigrants. What I find incompetent with the Dems handling of immigration is the fact that they never considered the possible effects of assimilation of such immigrants into American society. Immigrants are never going to act like immigrants forever especially after they have settled down 2 2
Vermillion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 If my biggest takeaway from this thread in 2016 was those damn Jessica Lange GIFs I swear my biggest takeaway from this election, victory or defeat, is going to be@Armani?'s crosstabs 7
dabunique Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 hour ago, Wonderland said: Is your delusion finally over now? Never. 😂
Armani? Posted October 13 Posted October 13 I mean...it isn't unbelievable like their trash Black poll but the gender gap seems too dramatic. Unless most of the undecideds almost all go towards Harris. Otherwise it's 51 - 48 head to head for men Also contradicting results for age groups from past election results. 1
Tovitov Posted October 13 Posted October 13 (edited) In some alternative universe, Hillary squeaks out a win in the Midwest in 2016, gets a popularity surge from Covid, get's reelected and we're looking at Rubio/Ted Cruz/Nikki Haley vs Tim Kaine right about now. Hillary would probably never have a trifecta. It would probably be a hostile congress + senate for her 8 years in office(kind of like an opposite Regan), so nothing would have gotten passed outside of basic things like government funding. But a universe where Trump get's defeated and Republicans move on, sounds nice. And of course, Roe V Wade would still be around. Edited October 13 by Tovitov 5
ZeroSuitBritney Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 hour ago, RihRihGirrrl said: Could be but there's also been a massive disinformation campaign swirling around about the hurricane relief....I fear people are believing the lies Yes I'm sure it's this and not Kamala attempting to cater hard to unsure Republicans with her terrible policy positions who then ultimately decide to just continue voting Red because there's not much different.
VOSS Posted October 13 Posted October 13 How it started How it's going Not shocking Kamala isn't begging for votes from this slice of the electorate
FameFatale Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Speaking of my state being a dumpster fire for voting access… I saw on social media this morning an old teacher posted about their trip to Colorado and they went to the Trump rally in Aurora while visiting and they were shocked at how there were ballot boxes just placed everywhere. She was already setting up the election would be rigged because how unsecure it is that people just drop their ballots in with no ID verification Then she went on bragging about our state being sooo secure and never would have fraud like the liberal states. 1
Communion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 hour ago, Vermillion said: And what was the motivation for that flip and who provided it? A notion that the base would be less likely to come out and support? I'm not trying to be facetious or confrontational, I completely agree and am trying to unpack. I've spent dozens of pages already doing this through the prism of Arab-Americans in Michigan and @Communion's done extensive unpacking on the tack right on immigration so I'm done with both those fronts and would love to unpack their tack right on issues other than those two atm. Isn't one of her main advisors someone who was internally attacking Walz's "weird" rhetoric and the "we're not going back" approach? Think it's a combo of the variety of advisors she has genuinely being right-wing (that one article having 2 Dem advisors thinking the trans attacks Republicans could make were strong attacks on Dems) and the idea her advisors have that Trump is enough of a threat that 'the base' won't sway elsewhere, backed up by online Blue MAGA types preaching this. This is probably the combo for why they've completely abandoned any kind of progressive populism and it's all right-wing coded liberal populism. Biden had a bunch of reactionary policies and did some of this kind of posturing for moderates, but also had Bernie in his ears and genuinely respected him and thought he spoke in some way to young people who he wanted in, so we got talks about raising the minimum wage and the need to make college free and wipe out student debt that Harris hasn't done at all in favor of the kind of liberal populism that centers deregulation that sounds to middle class DINK types, ie: "cutting red tape," "lowering taxes". 2
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 13 Posted October 13 57 minutes ago, shelven said: I'd be curious to get some polling on this, but my gut reaction is this wouldn't be enough if there really has been a 2-3 point shift in the national environment like the trio of polls this morning suggests. Low information voters tend to be selfish and vote based on issues (or perceived issues) that directly affect them. I'm having a difficult time imagining that 2-3% of the entire country's electorate has shifted over an issue that really only directly affects a handful of states. But like I said, maybe we'll get some specific polling on this question that disproves me on that. The more intuitive explanation to me is that she was at her peak when she was (a) exciting her base, and (b) very aggressively trying to distinguish herself from Trump. Now she's not really doing either of those things. "Vote for me because the other side consists of Nazis" would seem to work a lot better than "Vote for me because the other side consists of Nazis... but we also should keep in mind that it's important to work with some of those Nazis! I'll put at least one in my cabinet and probably have a few others advise me on policy :)" EDIT: I also can't help thinking about all these polls that show that voters want a change and then replaying Harris's "I wouldn't have done a single thing different from Biden (except put a Republican in my cabinet)" answer in my mind I really think that answer will end up haunting her the way that Hillary's "basket of deplorables" answer haunted her if she loses. The conspiracy isn't just a lone issue...it's the way Trump and his disinformation machine have tied it into the demonization of migrants. 'Migrants are ravaging our Country and the Government is even prioritizing them vs 'us', the American people....they're stealing our jobs, poisoning our Country and even taking the hurricane relief aid'....given the numbers we just saw about majority of American's wanting mass deportation...I think it's clear that Trump's messaging on this is working. I don't know how much it's moving the polls but the more 'immigration' take focus in the news/media, the more it seems to help Trump. 1 1
Communion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 11 minutes ago, VOSS said: How it's going America's largest Lebanese-American community holding a rally in support of one of Lebanon's most popular political parties for Shia Muslims after Israel just killed in a single day more Lebanese than the amount of Israelis who died on October 7th? Including American citizens literally from Dearborn killed in the IDF's terror attacks? Shocking. 2
VOSS Posted October 13 Posted October 13 2 minutes ago, Communion said: America's largest Lebanese-American community holding a rally in support of one of Lebanon's most popular political parties for Shia Muslims after Israel just killed in a single day more Lebanese than the amount of Israelis who died on October 7th? Including American citizens literally from Dearborn killed in the IDF's terror attacks? Shocking. Hezbollah is supported by only a small minority of Lebanese. I guess a lot of them live in Dearborn.
ClashAndBurn Posted October 13 Posted October 13 20 minutes ago, Tovitov said: In some alternative universe, Hillary squeaks out a win in the Midwest in 2016, gets a popularity surge from Covid, get's reelected and we're looking at Rubio/Ted Cruz/Nikki Haley vs Tim Kaine right about now. Hillary would probably never have a trifecta. It would probably be a hostile congress + senate for her 8 years in office(kind of like an opposite Regan), so nothing would have gotten passed outside of basic things like government funding. But a universe where Trump get's defeated and Republicans move on, sounds nice. And of course, Roe V Wade would still be around. I really can't imagine Hillary getting any sort of popularity boost from COVID. If anything, she'd be sunk by Republicans refusing to pass stimulus packages and she'd end up shouldering the blame for the economic turmoil because lol, median voter I still think Roe v Wade would be gone by now, because McConnell would have held the SCOTUS seats open for all four years of Hillary, and then when Hilldawg got shitcanned over COVID, her Republican successor would appoint the same Federalist Society cretins to replace Scalia, RBG, and Kennedy who probably still gets bullied into retirement. The biggest and only foreseeable difference is that Breyer would still be on the bench, holding out for his dying day because Democrats never would have held the Presidency and the Senate at the same time. 1 1
Communion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Just now, VOSS said: Hezbollah is supported by only a small minority of Lebanese. Shia Muslims represent nearly a third of Lebanese society and Hezbollah has largely consistent universal support amongst them as a political party. You can say Hezbollah is unpopular, but basically unpopular in the same way both the Democratic and Republican party have horrific overall approvals too. 1
VOSS Posted October 13 Posted October 13 2 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said: I really can't imagine Hillary getting any sort of popularity boost from COVID. If anything, she'd be sunk by Republicans refusing to pass stimulus packages and she'd end up shouldering the blame for the economic turmoil because lol, median voter I still think Roe v Wade would be gone by now, because McConnell would have held the SCOTUS seats open for all four years of Hillary, and then when Hilldawg got shitcanned over COVID, her Republican successor would appoint the same Federalist Society cretins to replace Scalia, RBG, and Kennedy who probably still gets bullied into retirement. The biggest and only foreseeable difference is that Breyer would still be on the bench, holding out for his dying day because Democrats never would have held the Presidency and the Senate at the same time. Roe would obviously not be gone by now if Hillary had won, please. 6
Tovitov Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Just now, ClashAndBurn said: I really can't imagine Hillary getting any sort of popularity boost from COVID. If anything, she'd be sunk by Republicans refusing to pass stimulus packages and she'd end up shouldering the blame for the economic turmoil because lol, median voter I still think Roe v Wade would be gone by now, because McConnell would have held the SCOTUS seats open for all four years of Hillary, and then when Hilldawg got shitcanned over COVID, her Republican successor would appoint the same Federalist Society cretins to replace Scalia, RBG, and Kennedy who probably still gets bullied into retirement. The biggest and only foreseeable difference is that Breyer would still be on the bench, holding out for his dying day because Democrats never would have held the Presidency and the Senate at the same time. It's certainly a fun hypothetical discussion. Your scenario makes it seem like we dodged a bullet, although we'll see how November plays out.
Communion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, Armani? said: 56% of Americans wanting massive deportation in the ABC poll. Idiots Because they'll just be reactionary and swing back if it were to happen 1 hour ago, Tovitov said: Some posters are going after Harris for swinging right on Immigration when the country has swung even further right apparently Almost like politicians should be people with coherent ideologies that understand root causes of public sentiment and not skin-suit lizard people who become successful lawyers for the sake of becoming successful and fail upwards to becoming the VP of the US. Almost like we need progressive politicians who can navigate fascists scapegoating undocumented migrants for the very pain felt by the same social safety net said fascists have gutted, not a girlboss cop who just takes on the positions that her advisors put in front of her as popular. Harris' vibe politics means the US not supporting Jewish refugees coming into the US during WWII because such was highly unpopular at the time. Edited October 13 by Communion 1 1
YellowRibbon Posted October 13 Posted October 13 I'm not even looking at the polls right now because I know that come election day, Trump is likely to win (I really hope Kamala wins, but I think she's always been the underdog in this race). TikTok and other social media has made a huge damage to people's brains, it's almost insane how the most nonsensical lies gain traction without anyone questioning anything. We need a full ban on TikTok, Twitch and other media sources where our younger generations are being radicalized by toxic influencers and self-proclaimed alpha males (as if humans were wolves)... What a sh*tty situation 5
anti-bitch Posted October 13 Posted October 13 4 minutes ago, Armani? said: That's why I think bipartisanship is a bad idea right now. The other side is too far gone. 2 4
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