Lil Mistee Posted October 2 Posted October 2 37 minutes ago, Sannie said: Ultimately we're not going to know the truth until election day, but this article posits that pollsters are doing what they believe they need to in order to not undersample Republicans like they have in the past. If this is true, the implication is that there will be no "shy Trump voter" surprise or margin errors in Trump's favor due to the undersampling issue in the past. Don't give me hope. I'll laugh so hard if this is a landslide Harris win
Blade Posted October 2 Posted October 2 From Cook Political's swing state polls. 5% undecided is in line with way less undecideds compared to 2016 and 2020. There's also been a marked drop in the number of swing state voters who are undecided or are planning to vote third party (from 10% in August to 5% now). Those voters, who are younger and more diverse than the electorate as a whole, are deeply pessimistic about the state of inflation (70% think it's getting worse), and overwhelmingly trust Trump more than Harris on the economy. However, they also deeply dislike Trump's style and behavior. The question isn't just who they will ultimately support this November, but whether these more infrequent voters come out to vote at all. 3 3
Blade Posted October 2 Posted October 2 May 38% 62% −24% August 43% 57% −14% September 46% 54% −8% Change in how voters view the direction of the economy Oh it was BAD when Biden was in 1 1
Blade Posted October 2 Posted October 2 In Arizona and Nevada, those nine percent of voters splitting their tickets between Trump and the Democratic Senate candidates — the largest delta in the swing state results — are mostly non-college women and those who earn less than $40,000. In Nevada, it's mostly white women. @Relampago. you know who to target during canvassing. Get those women on board for Harris/Gallego 4 1
Relampago. Posted October 2 Posted October 2 3 hours ago, on the line said: Thank you for reaffirming what I read. My point is.... What's the point? Is it adding to the conversation? It's not even a viral tweet or by anyone or any account worth following. Just curious what the angle and reasoning behind posting that in this thread? This is one of the most ironic posts I've read in awhile considering: 3 hours ago, on the line said: Good Morning! Logging in to see more of the hate train by the Far Light. Such a great day in America! Very contribution, much account worth following. 2 3
Relampago. Posted October 2 Posted October 2 2 minutes ago, Blade said: In Arizona and Nevada, those nine percent of voters splitting their tickets between Trump and the Democratic Senate candidates — the largest delta in the swing state results — are mostly non-college women and those who earn less than $40,000. In Nevada, it's mostly white women. @Relampago. you know who to target during canvassing. Get those women on board for Harris/Gallego I feel like those are the easiest conversations to have. The sigh of relief I feel when I see a woman answer the door or a woman's name on my list 5 1
Sannie Posted October 2 Posted October 2 Looks like they were waiting for the debate to release him into the wild? 6 2
Relampago. Posted October 2 Posted October 2 32 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said: Don't give me hope. I'll laugh so hard if this is a landslide Harris win Something that's been tugging at the back of my mind is that Harris is showing a lot of strength in the Rust Belt, so it's feeling somewhat good that she has a path to win with just those alone. What's nice is that if she has a decent chance to win those, the most likely scenario for her in that case is to take the rest of the swing states. I used to think that was a pipe dream, but I can see it because her polls in the Sun Belt while not favorable, don't look impossible to overcome by any means. The reverse could happen, but I feel right now that Trump sweeping the swing states and taking the Rust Belt feels less likely to me right now (although, this is the single most likely outcome, Harris just has more higher-percentage chances to win than Trump). 1
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 2 Posted October 2 2 minutes ago, Sannie said: Looks like they were waiting for the debate to release him into the wild? This is what I figured they were doing
Relampago. Posted October 2 Posted October 2 I'm so annoyed that I was mostly right about the outcome of the debate though. Vance slightly winning because he wasn't a total ass and can doubletalk like the snake he is. Walz looking a frantic mess at times, distracting from the amazing things he was saying. Thankfully I was also right in that it doesn't matter at all!
FameFatale Posted October 2 Posted October 2 6 minutes ago, Sannie said: Looks like they were waiting for the debate to release him into the wild? I guess it makes sense because this hasn't been a normal campaign cycle. We went from Biden OUT to Kamala rush picking a VP, the DNC, and debates. I'm sure just like Kamala he had to hit the ground running for rallies but also have time to prepare for debates plus still run a state. 1 1
Sannie Posted October 2 Posted October 2 https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8RpEUuK/ It's wild to me that things like this don't get more coverage because it's proof that Trump is willing to destroy the economy and hurt billions of people just to possibly win the election. 1
GhostBox Posted October 2 Posted October 2 9 minutes ago, Sannie said: Looks like they were waiting for the debate to release him into the wild? This is great 👏🏼 im still surprised we haven't seen any rallies with the Obama's 🤷
Sannie Posted October 2 Posted October 2 Just now, FameFatale said: I guess it makes sense because this hasn't been a normal campaign cycle. We went from Biden OUT to Kamala rush picking a VP, the DNC, and debates. I'm sure just like Kamala he had to hit the ground running for rallies but also have time to prepare for debates plus still run a state. There's the argument to be had that waiting until now is the best way to do it. We all know the short attention spans Americans have so if they do all this rushing last minute in October, that's going to be the last thing on people's mind come November. We've yet to see Kamala shift into high gear, but it's possible that it's coming. On the flipside Trump is becoming more and more unhinged as the day pass and that's going to be on the top of everyone's mind come November. 6
GhostBox Posted October 2 Posted October 2 1 minute ago, Relampago. said: I'm so annoyed that I was mostly right about the outcome of the debate though. Vance slightly winning because he wasn't a total ass and can doubletalk like the snake he is. Walz looking a frantic mess at times, distracting from the amazing things he was saying. Thankfully I was also right in that it doesn't matter at all! The overall consensus seems to be that both got what they wanted from the debate. But watching some news today Vance's refusal to say Trump lost in 2020 is what most are talking about
Blade Posted October 2 Posted October 2 I don't know why the ticket is so good at messaging when it comes to Trump being the one responsible to kill the border bill but can't seem to employ the same tactics of blaming Trump for the economy. Sure it isn't as cut and dry as Trump literally calling senators to tank the bill, but how hard is it to say "your groceries are more expensive because Trump ruined the economy in 2020, which stressed the supply chain, causing the inflation we saw in 2022" 14
Redstreak Posted October 2 Posted October 2 7 minutes ago, Blade said: I don't know why the ticket is so good at messaging when it comes to Trump being the one responsible to kill the border bill but can't seem to employ the same tactics of blaming Trump for the economy. Sure it isn't as cut and dry as Trump literally calling senators to tank the bill, but how hard is it to say "your groceries are more expensive because Trump ruined the economy in 2020, which stressed the supply chain, causing the inflation we saw in 2022" I mean look at the discourse around the Helene relief, a lot of median voters have this idea that problems are fixable in a week. "Why are they blaming trump when they've had all this time" 1
Relampago. Posted October 2 Posted October 2 29 minutes ago, Relampago. said: Something that's been tugging at the back of my mind is that Harris is showing a lot of strength in the Rust Belt, so it's feeling somewhat good that she has a path to win with just those alone. What's nice is that if she has a decent chance to win those, the most likely scenario for her in that case is to take the rest of the swing states. I used to think that was a pipe dream, but I can see it because her polls in the Sun Belt while not favorable, don't look impossible to overcome by any means. The reverse could happen, but I feel right now that Trump sweeping the swing states and taking the Rust Belt feels less likely to me right now (although, this is the single most likely outcome, Harris just has more higher-percentage chances to win than Trump). Took this comment from a Reddit thread (so take with a grain of salt..) but it basically sums up why I think the above is probably true for Harris: Quote After 2016 I will always be nervous before an election, but the cautious hope in me that I almost hate saying out loud is that the polls have overcompensated too much and are getting decently correct numbers in the rust belt where they were able to use 2022 results and a relatively homogenous population and that Harris will win WI, MI, PA by a few points each...but that in the Sun Belt they are doing a "worse" job calibrating correctly to a more multicultural population (hispanics, AA, sharp education/religion polarization) which is causing the polls to be a little overly Trump friendly and that in the end she sweeps all 7 swing states. I could see that being the case. Possibly overestimating Trump support in these areas that might be harder to poll demographically. 2 1
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