Rotunda Posted July 31 Posted July 31 8 minutes ago, Communion said: ike I get a knee-jerk to doomerism but radical optimism (ddddd) that ignores the actual reality at play feels like a misguided form of coping for us all than meaningfully interrogating Harris' prospects truthfully. I am refusing to doom until after Monday. Then I will join you all in screaming, crying, and throwing up. 2 1
Communion Posted July 31 Posted July 31 Also of note - Shapiro has had no issue giving power to Republicans in order to attain certain goals. See: Picking a Republican to oversee PA's elections. Also him leaving PA would see his Lt. Gov become governor but then a Republican election-denier (Kim Ward) would become the new Lt. Gov in Austin Davis' place. In comparison, Walz leaving Minneosta for DC would seemingly make the state even more progressive. 1 1
Bamboo Posted July 31 Posted July 31 (edited) my fear with the Dems going on a more offensive approach is that they don't really know where to stop and always end up doing these weird elitist punching down attacks. The party that advocates for healthcare for the poor…is making fun of people for being too poor to afford dental care? This is what Hillary did when she was on offense too (i.e. the deplorables) and it did not work. I hope Team Kamala itself does not adopt this messaging because it is a slippery slope. The offensive messaging and "weird" tactic should focus on how Trump, Vance, Republican Party in general has weird beliefs and advocates for things normal people do not care about. It should not attack the voters and the normal people on the ground. Edited July 31 by Bamboo 9 3
ClashAndBurn Posted July 31 Posted July 31 44 minutes ago, Communion said: Yes, I don't think anyone here is actively rooting for Shapiro. I can think of one... 5
TaggedGalaxy Posted July 31 Posted July 31 I don't necessarily believe that picking Shapiro is an automatic loss in MI for her. I think her messaging on Israel and her active role in negotiating a cease fire agreement could negate the stain Shapiro would bring to the ticket for MI voters but ultimately we don't know how it will play out. I wish there were MI specific Arab-American polls to see what that looked like. Is the population that large that if they sat out the election she would automatically lose? Obviously they aren't going to vote for Trump over Harris considering he would make the Israel/Gaza situation exponentially worse 1
Blade Posted July 31 Posted July 31 55 minutes ago, Communion said: For reference, if she won PA but lost MI, she'd have to win Georgia too. If she won WI/PA/AZ, she'd still lose. Her paths are: - PA/WI/MI - PA/WI/GA - PA/MI/AZ - PA/WI/AZ/NV (Nevada not seeing any meaningful movement making this an unlikely path) PA obviously holds a higher value I terms of EC points but people are clearly communicating that it has the least volatile electorate out of the Rust Belt. Wisconsin has had the smallest gains back for Dems and the Arab American population is dramatically negatively polarized to issues on Israel. There's nothing one can articulate of how Walz hurts Harris in PA the way that Shapiro hurts Harris in MI. Also people are acting like progressives are being unreasonable and asking her to shun Shapiro away from the campaign. He's fine being a surrogate in PA. Let him do his thing there. 1
Rotunda Posted July 31 Posted July 31 I don't know how much y'all have been following the National Association of Black Journalist drama but it's a mess 1
Blade Posted July 31 Posted July 31 19 minutes ago, DR0GO said: This VP pick chaos is giving me anxiety. 5 more days of this ugh
Blade Posted July 31 Posted July 31 6 minutes ago, TaggedGalaxy said: I don't necessarily believe that picking Shapiro is an automatic loss in MI for her. I think her messaging on Israel and her active role in negotiating a cease fire agreement could negate the stain Shapiro would bring to the ticket for MI voters but ultimately we don't know how it will play out. I wish there were MI specific Arab-American polls to see what that looked like. Is the population that large that if they sat out the election she would automatically lose? Obviously they aren't going to vote for Trump over Harris considering he would make the Israel/Gaza situation exponentially worse I don't know how accurate this is but apparently Whitmer won MI without the Arab vote turn out being exceptionally high for her. 2
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted July 31 ATRL Moderator Posted July 31 10 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said: I can think of one... He actually wants Walz. 2
Ms. Togekiss Posted July 31 Posted July 31 54 minutes ago, Communion said: I know you're just listing them without qualifying them as all do-able but two out of three of these are already not happening. NC is still largely out of reach and it's like Dems have let the new Kamala hype push to the side that something very concerning is happening polling wise in Nevada and was happening even before the debate. So basically the argument is that losing Michigan isn't too big of a deal if she just wins [a GOP controlled purple state that has largely in 4 years purged countless minorities from the voter rolls and made voting much more difficult]. Like I get a knee-jerk to doomerism but radical optimism (ddddd) that ignores the actual reality at play feels like a misguided form of coping for us all than meaningfully interrogating Harris' prospects truthfully. It just feels like people for their own sanity down want things like a VP pick to speak or demonstrate to voters some ideological declaration on Harris' end but the reality is such is going to be how such is perceived. A Shapiro pick is a purposeful antagonization of young voters, progressive voters, and voters who care about Palestine and would suggest Harris must then live with the consequences of this electoral gamble. Edit - @Rotunda Yes, I don't think anyone here is actively rooting for Shapiro. I think though her picking him then speaks to the ideological intent of her campaign and basically strips those voting blocs like young people or progressives any reason to materially invent in her winning when openly at odds with them. What's happening in Nevada? 1
ATRL Moderator Azulito Posted July 31 ATRL Moderator Posted July 31 Picking Shapiro would ruin all the momentum she has. It just doesn't make sense. I personally prefer Beshear because it'd be nice to have younger people leading the party again but Walz would be a great pick as well. 3 1
ClashAndBurn Posted July 31 Posted July 31 3 minutes ago, Bloo said: He actually wants Walz. I guess it's just every time I've seen him post about any of the Veepstakes picks, it's always been him Shapiro-stanning 1
americanlife Posted July 31 Posted July 31 31 minutes ago, Bamboo said: my fear with the Dems going on a more offensive approach is that they don't really know where to stop and always end up doing these weird elitist punching down attacks. The part that advocates for healthcare for the poor…is making fun of people for being too poor to afford dental care? This is what Hillary did when she was on offense too (i.e. the deplorable) and it did not work. I hope Team Kamala itself does not adopt this messaging because it is a slippery slope. The offensive messaging and "weird" tactic should focus on how Trump, Vance, Republican Party in general has weird beliefs and advocates for things normal people do not care about. It should not attack the voters and the normal people on the ground. Yup yup! Stuff like this could cost Dems the election. The "weird" approach should only go so far and not delve into insults. 1
Armani? Posted July 31 Posted July 31 1 hour ago, Vermillion said: If Kamala picks Josh Shapiro she will win Pennsylvania and lose Michigan, and thus, the election. There is no path without Michigan. They'll probably try to keep his overly pro Israel **** hush hush till the election, but I don't see how now with what just happened killing the illusion of the ceasefire deal.
FameFatale Posted July 31 Posted July 31 5 minutes ago, dabunique said: Can someone explain what's goin down with da NABJ? I'm not 100% but it looks as if they invited both presidential candidates and Trump accepted but VP Harris had issues working around her schedule on the campaign trail to attend and offered to do a zoom but it was apparently declined. Now Trump is heading to Chicago to do a sit down with them and he is posting up and down Truth Social this morning taunting Harris for his own gain. Basically he's saying "Look I showed up and care more about them than you do" type of behavior. Now some of the NABJ are putting out statements saying see what pettiness he fueled up. Rumor is maybe now Harris going to zoom in? Not sure though.
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