news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Vermillion]

Article re-post from different poster but deserved revisit regardless.

 

[Communion]

35 minutes ago, Armani? said:

Can we get ads about Trump wanting to do tariffs which would worsen inflation/prices again on working families?

 

That would actually be an effective ad

It'd be wonky messaging to navigate given the Biden administration's heavy utilization and support of tariffs against foreign policy enemies like China. 

[Vermillion]

@Communion The articles keep coming. It's just relentless.

 

[shyboi]

Kamala picked Shapiro? 

[Vermillion]

Did everyone forget Ron's flight to Martha's Vineyard? Or are we pretending that never happened?

 

 

[Rotunda]

3 minutes ago, shyboi said:

Kamala picked Shapiro? 

No

[Vermillion]

8 minutes ago, shyboi said:

Kamala picked Shapiro? 

No.

 

Speculation based on announcement timing and location that Kamala's team has attempted to debunk and now endless articles from left-of-center publications and lefty pundits screaming about the risks of going with him that feels like a blizzard because of the allegations Eric Holder was leaking article quotes to launch him as a trial balloon which has garnered massive backlash.

 

Now centrists and trolling MAGA are trying to take advantage of the chaos with their usual strategy on the topic of Gaza with equating antisemitism and antizionism and a Jewish man (Josh), pretending Doug doesn't exist apparently.

 

The harassment settlement is an even worse liability domestically I'd love to hear their reasoning on dismissing so casually.

 

She can win PA without Josh.

 

Kamala will LOSE Michigan with him.

 

Period, point blank.

[midnightdawn]

The top contenders include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper has taken himself out of the running and declined the campaign's request to be vetted, CNN reported Monday. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear are also still in conversation, but people close to the process believe they are not top contenders.

"Pennsylvania is the tipping point," one strategist close to the campaign told CNN. "Once you acknowledge that, it becomes pretty obvious who [Harris] should pick."

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/30/politics/harris-vice-presidential-selection/index.html

 

So Beshear is unlikely and Shapiro has backing.

Edited July 31 by midnightdawn

[Vermillion]

 

[Vermillion]

1 minute ago, midnightdawn said:

The top contenders include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper has taken himself out of the running and declined the campaign's request to be vetted, CNN reported Monday. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear are also still in conversation, but people close to the process believe they are not top contenders.

"Pennsylvania is the tipping point," one strategist close to the campaign told CNN. "Once you acknowledge that, it becomes pretty obvious who [Harris] should pick."

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/30/politics/harris-vice-presidential-selection/index.html

 

So Beshear is unlikely and Shapiro has backing.

Beshear was singled out as being in strong contention literally yesterday by NBC.

 

Michigan is more crucial than PA even though they both are.

 

The notion that 100K uncommitted voters can just be collectively ignored is idiotic as is this strategist.

 

I've got a ton of problems with Kelly but even he's better at this point, despite no one buying his about-turn on the PRO Act.

[Rotunda]

3 minutes ago, Vermillion said:

Beshear was singled out as being in strong contention literally yesterday by NBC.

 

Michigan is more crucial than PA even though they both are.

 

The notion that 100K uncommitted voters can just be collectively ignored is idiotic as is this strategist.

 

I've got a ton of problems with Kelly but even he's better at this point, despite no one buying his about-turn on the PRO Act.

By what metric is Michigan more crucial than Pennsylvania?

[FameFatale]

Another one?  every day there's a new clip of him saying this. 

 

 

[Vermillion]

1 minute ago, Rotunda said:

By what metric is Michigan more crucial than Pennsylvania?

Anyone arguing that either is insignificant is gaslighting. A strategy without winning both, however barely in the Electoral College, should not exist.

 

We can do the data breakdown, but the argument for Josh winning PA is countered with his position on Israel and the Michigan primary. She has to make a dent in those primary voters - the black vote in Detroit is not enough.

[Rotunda]

Just now, Vermillion said:

Anyone arguing that either is insignificant is gaslighting. A strategy without winning both, however barely in the Electoral College, should not exist.

 

We can do the data breakdown, but the argument for Josh winning PA is countered with his position on Israel and the Michigan primary. She has to make a dent in those primary voters - the black vote in Detroit is not enough.

Can you answer the question I asked?

[ClashAndBurn]

20 minutes ago, Vermillion said:

feels like a blizzard

"I'd like to see how Donald Trump's hair fares in a blizzard" 

 

That's what your comment there just reminded me of  

[Vermillion]

Just now, Rotunda said:

Can you answer the question I asked?

She needs to win both states. 

 

Folks here keep moving the goalposts as to what defines a metric to support their argument.

 

The argument for picking Josh Shapiro to win Pennsylvania is inherently flawed because she will lose Michigan as a result. They are intrinsically linked as it comes down to the Arab-American diaspora.

 

Do you support Josh Shapiro for VP? 

 

Your gaslighting and attempts to corner me on this are counterproductive and transparent.

[Vermillion]

If Kamala picks Josh Shapiro she will win Pennsylvania and lose Michigan, and thus, the election. There is no path without Michigan.

[Rotunda]

8 minutes ago, Vermillion said:

She needs to win both states. 

 

Folks here keep moving the goalposts as to what defines a metric to support their argument.

 

The argument for picking Josh Shapiro to win Pennsylvania is inherently flawed because she will lose Michigan as a result. They are intrinsically linked as it comes down to the Arab-American diaspora.

 

Do you support Josh Shapiro for VP? 

 

Your gaslighting and attempts to corner me on this are counterproductive and transparent.

1. You are in this thread every hour, I'm sure you can locate the posts where I've stated clearly that I don't want Shapiro for VP. 
 

2. While I don't want Shapiro for VP, I think if Kamala loses Michigan, it will come down to her broader inability to gain favor with populations who care about Palestine rather than just her VP pick. I think she could overcome a Shapiro pick and still carry the state with a clear and genuine shift in their posture towards Israel, but I am largely skeptical of that. 
 

3. Factually speaking Michigan's electoral votes can be made up by winning (in order of likelihood) Georgia, a combination of NV and AZ, or North Carolina. A loss in Pennsylvania requires her to win at least one of Georgia/North Carolina and at least one more of Arizona/Nevada. 

4. Gaslighting doesn't mean what you think it means. 

 

Edited July 31 by Rotunda

[Vermillion]

1 minute ago, Rotunda said:

Factually speaking Michigan's electoral votes can be made up by winning (in order of likelihood) Georgia, a combination of NV and AZ, or North Carolina. A loss in Pennsylvania requires her to win at least one of Georgia/North Carolina and at least one more of Arizona/Nevada. 

I've baked in to stats that I don't have the energy to pull up that neither Georgia nor North Carolina are happening despite recent numbers by this woman of color - the former given the Republican "reforms" that survived court challenges that Stacey Abrams touched on last night.

 

As for the rest, my apologies and I'll move on.

[Vermillion]

@Communion

 

[Communion]

19 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

By what metric is Michigan more crucial than Pennsylvania?

For reference, if she won PA but lost MI, she'd have to win Georgia too.

 

If she won WI/PA/AZ, she'd still lose.

 

Her paths are:

- PA/WI/MI

- PA/WI/GA 

- PA/MI/AZ

- PA/WI/AZ/NV (Nevada not seeing any meaningful movement making this an unlikely path)

 

PA obviously holds a higher value I terms of EC points but people are clearly communicating that it has the least volatile electorate out of the Rust Belt. Wisconsin has had the smallest gains back for Dems and the Arab American population is dramatically negatively polarized to issues on Israel. 

 

There's nothing one can articulate of how Walz hurts Harris in PA the way that Shapiro hurts Harris in MI. 

[Vermillion]

 

[Vermillion]

2 minutes ago, Communion said:

There's nothing one can articulate of how Walz hurts Harris in PA the way that Shapiro hurts Harris in MI. 

Though I have a sinking feeling they'll try it anyways. I'm tired of waiting.

[Rotunda]

5 minutes ago, Communion said:

For reference, if she won PA but lost MI, she'd have to win Georgia too.

 

If she won WI/PA/AZ, she'd still lose.

 

Her paths are:

- PA/WI/MI

- PA/WI/GA 

- PA/MI/AZ

- PA/WI/AZ/NV (Nevada not seeing any meaningful movement making this an unlikely path)

 

PA obviously holds a higher value I terms of EC points but people are clearly communicating that it has the least volatile electorate out of the Rust Belt. Wisconsin has had the smallest gains back for Dems and the Arab American population is dramatically negatively polarized to issues on Israel. 

 

There's nothing one can articulate of how Walz hurts Harris in PA the way that Shapiro hurts Harris in MI. 

I mean I think this all makes sense and the question is whether they feel more comfortable playing in an environment where PA is less of a risk but they have a lot more ground to make up in Michigan - or go with someone like Walz where there isn't a state-specific boost or drawback.

 

I think the majority of us prefer the Walz approach, but I also don't know how many Michigan uncommitted voters will consider the VP pick the point-of-no-return for them vs. whether it's just an additional level of skepticism she'll need to resolve.

 

Regardless, I don't think there's many in this thread who think Shapiro is the right pick.

Edited July 31 by Rotunda

[Communion]

17 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

Factually speaking Michigan's electoral votes can be made up by winning (in order of likelihood) Georgia, a combination of NV and AZ, or North Carolina.

I know you're just listing them without qualifying them as all do-able but two out of three of these are already not happening. NC is still largely out of reach and it's like Dems have let the new Kamala hype push to the side that something very concerning is happening polling wise in Nevada and was happening even before the debate. 

 

So basically the argument is that losing Michigan isn't too big of a deal if she just wins [a GOP controlled purple state that has largely in 4 years purged countless minorities from the voter rolls and made voting much more difficult].

 

Like I get a knee-jerk to doomerism but radical optimism (ddddd) that ignores the actual reality at play feels like a misguided form of coping for us all than meaningfully interrogating Harris' prospects truthfully. 

 

It just feels like people for their own sanity down want things like a VP pick to speak or demonstrate to voters some ideological declaration on Harris' end but the reality is such is going to be how such is perceived. A Shapiro pick is a purposeful antagonization of young voters, progressive voters, and voters who care about Palestine and would suggest Harris must then live with the consequences of this electoral gamble. 

 

Edit - @Rotunda Yes, I don't think anyone here is actively rooting for Shapiro. I think though her picking him then speaks to the ideological intent of her campaign and basically strips those voting blocs like young people or progressives any reason to materially invent in her winning when openly at odds with them. 

Edited July 31 by Communion