Communion Posted July 31 Posted July 31 12 minutes ago, Vermillion said: This gets back to my original point on how far she's afforded to break from Biden on any issue in return for Biden having agreed to step down in the first place. The notion there's been an overhaul of the election team and by default, advisors, is false. I'm not saying I agree with it at all but the best we can hope for is a campaign Kamala and President Kamala on the issues she's perceived as weakest by independents. Now is that in itself a problem and a sign of political cowardice? Absolutely one could argue that. My devil's advocate theory, which isn't giving her credit, is there's layers as to why she's doing it. There's probably reams of internal polling they considered on what holds onto enough independents without doing too much damage to the base, but I don't have the energy to pull up the stats that agree with or counter that line of thinking. Maybe @Communion has some I think a lot of the current back and forth happening is that there are two groups who were unhappy with Biden: Those upset that his old age and mental collapse made him clearly unfit and saw him tank in polling Those upset that his policies were reactionary, at odds with voters, and saw him marginally losing in polling His withdrawing and Kamala's ascension has eased the minds of the former, but whom are now frustrated at the reality that the problems observed by the latter still must be contended with. I said it before but "how will a Kamala Harris presidency be more progressive than a Joe Biden presidency" is not a hard nor unreasonable question that at one point will have to be answered. And if people know deep down that they want to say it won't be more progressive, they have to reconcile w/ that electoral fallout. 1 1
Tovitov Posted July 31 Posted July 31 6 minutes ago, Bloo said: This would be more compelling if illegal immigration was a top 5 issue for Independents or Democrats. It is not. https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DLqDe/3/# It doesnt have to be. The Trump campaign is running ads calling her a failed border czar. Harris is smart to try and defuse it. 1
Vermillion Posted July 31 Posted July 31 3 minutes ago, Bloo said: I mean... this is why I hated Kamala in 2020. She had no platform and yoyo-ed back and forth between positions by the day. Well aware. Still not as bad as Mitt Romney or Nikki Haley. Low bars, but felt the urge to say that 1
midnightdawn Posted July 31 Posted July 31 I'd be surprised if she's made a definite choice yet. Isn't she yet to meet with them?
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted July 31 ATRL Moderator Posted July 31 8 minutes ago, Harriser said: People need to look at polling on immigration - the left leaning view has completely collapsed. Mainstream Democrats are simply responding to this shift among voters which is why they are now backing this bipartisan legislation as their position. Leftist members might say it's because they're not messaging on immigration any more and that they completely let the Republicans run rampant on the issue for the last 4 years - and I'd agree. But 100 days out from the most important election of the 21st century so far is not the time to try and convince voters to change their minds on a big issue, it's the time to appeal for their votes and this is the right path for that. Leftists aren't really claiming this? And I think this commentary in response to a lot of the comments here is missing the point. My argument is that anti-immigrant rhetoric is popular to people who Kamala will never win. Independent, Democratic-leaning, and Democratic voters are more concerned with other issues. It makes no sense for Democrats to fight battles where they are perceived as weaker when they can choose more solid battlegrounds. Trying to play right-wing immigration policy against Donald Trump is a losing battle, so don't fight it. This was the biggest blunder Biden made during the debate (aside from his physical and cognitive unfitness). He was asked an abortion question and pivoted to talking about an illegal immigrant killing someone. Abortion is the strongest policy issue for Democrats. Talk about that. Talk about education. Talk about climate change. Talking too much about harsh immigration policy is not a fight they should be taking up because they will lose. 4 2
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted July 31 ATRL Moderator Posted July 31 1 minute ago, Tovitov said: It doesnt have to be. The Trump campaign is running ads calling her a failed border czar. Harris is smart to try and defuse it. You can defuse it more intelligently. But, defusing everything thrown out you isn't smart. Take a look at how JD Vance trying to defuse the claim he had sex with a couch is working out for him. 3
Wonderland Posted July 31 Posted July 31 I hope she films multiple different VP crowning like a drag race finale so the true pick isn't leaked early 1 12
Armani? Posted July 31 Posted July 31 Picking a sexual assaulting vice president while running a campaign trying to be prosecutor vs felon....ok 1
Communion Posted July 31 Posted July 31 4 minutes ago, Bloo said: I mean... this is why I hated Kamala in 2020. She had no platform and yoyo-ed back and forth between positions by the day. TW: IF YOU'RE SENSITIVE ABOUT THE STATE OF THE ELECTION & NEED TO MAINTAIN YOUR PEACE OF MIND, PLEASE DON'T READ THE SPOILER TY <3 Spoiler @Bloo The way I got chills and flashbacks seeing a tweet where someone reminded how she stormed out the gate in 2019 (she had Warren fuming, ddd) as the progressive pick and basically she went from super popular to widely disliked the more her campaign strategy and policy morphed into something incoherent and muddled.
Rotunda Posted July 31 Posted July 31 1 minute ago, Armani? said: Picking a sexual assaulting vice president while running a campaign trying to be prosecutor vs felon....ok the accusation isn't that he committed sexual assault 1
Blade Posted July 31 Posted July 31 People are saying she can't possibly announce anyone other than Shapiro at the Philly rally BUT it's way more likely she will announce to the media on Monday. Then hopefully the Harris aide is doing us a favor by cautioning us not to freak out knowing that Philly was always planned to be the first stop. Idk y'all I'm on some major copium right now. Walz and Beshear are RIGHT THERE. 2
Relampago. Posted July 31 Posted July 31 10 minutes ago, Rotunda said: This is kinda giving cope, it's so Shapiro isn't it
Vermillion Posted July 31 Posted July 31 Look, this will piss off some folks here, but I can't underplay how bad of a pick Shapiro is. Shapiro as VP will lose Kamala Michigan, at a minimum, period. She has to make a dent in the 100K primary's uncommitted and the hardliner's the worst possible decision. She can't prosecute the case on sexual abuse with the man who paid $300,000 to settle the lawsuit against his Republican staffer for that exact thing. She can't argue for public school funding with the king of vouchers or unions with a man who's been a massive thorn in their side.
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted July 31 ATRL Moderator Posted July 31 1 minute ago, Communion said: TW: IF YOU'RE SENSITIVE ABOUT THE STATE OF THE ELECTION & NEED TO MAINTAIN YOUR PEACE OF MIND, PLEASE DON'T READ THE SPOILER TY <3 Hide contents @Bloo The way I got chills and flashbacks seeing a tweet where someone reminded how she stormed out the gate in 2019 (she had Warren fuming, ddd) as the progressive pick and basically she went from super popular to widely disliked the more her campaign strategy and policy morphed into something incoherent and muddled. TW: IF YOU'RE SENSITIVE ABOUT THE STATE OF THE ELECTION & NEED TO MAINTAIN YOUR PEACE OF MIND, PLEASE DON'T READ THE SPOILER TY <3 The fact this happened with, not only Kamala Harris, but also Elizabeth Warren is damning though. Two case studies in one primary. As soon as Warren became the front-runner, finally passed Biden in the polls in the RCP average, she began to pivot to the center on healthcare and her polling collapsed immediately. I know there are many who think this is obsessing on the boundaries, but the boundaries decides elections. Biden won by 44,000 votes across three states in 2020. Kamala's surge in the polls is reassuring for those that don't want to see Trump win. But, it is not permanent. It can change with a flicker of political chaos and I think there's a lot of optimistic good will at the moment because Biden was so hated and people are excited to see him off the ticket. But if she stumbles and makes bad choices, then she can join his former position in the polls. 2 1
Rotunda Posted July 31 Posted July 31 Idk if there's even 2 ppl in this thread that want Shapiro picked but y'all gotta chill for a second
Harrier Posted July 31 Posted July 31 10 minutes ago, Bloo said: Leftists aren't really claiming this? And I think this commentary in response to a lot of the comments here is missing the point. My argument is that anti-immigrant rhetoric is popular to people who Kamala will never win. Independent, Democratic-leaning, and Democratic voters are more concerned with other issues. It makes no sense for Democrats to fight battles where they are perceived as weaker when they can choose more solid battlegrounds. Trying to play right-wing immigration policy against Donald Trump is a losing battle, so don't fight it. This was the biggest blunder Biden made during the debate (aside from his physical and cognitive unfitness). He was asked an abortion question and pivoted to talking about an illegal immigrant killing someone. Abortion is the strongest policy issue for Democrats. Talk about that. Talk about education. Talk about climate change. Talking too much about harsh immigration policy is not a fight they should be taking up because they will lose. I agree that other issues are what you focus on and pivot to, but she needs a position here, otherwise it becomes an even bigger vulnerability than it already is. They have found a weakness here for Trump, which is that he killed this legislation, and they're running with it. Swing voters who are somewhat conservative on immigration but pro abortion absolutely exist, especially in places like Arizona and the Midwest. Think white women. Staking a position here in support of this bill is intended to assuage these kinds of voters' concerns while also allowing them to drive home the message on choice or on education or whatever. It's not about winning right wingers. Additionally, let's face it, in this election cycle immigration is low on the list of things that are going to drive down turnout among left voters - that's primarily Gaza at the moment. They can afford to take this position.
Vermillion Posted July 31 Posted July 31 I ****ing KNEW Eric Holder was gonna pull this ****. Way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. What a waste. Way to burn your momentum.
Tovitov Posted July 31 Posted July 31 FWIW, Obama's first rally with Biden was in Chicago. Trump introduced Pence in NYC. Location doesnt mean much. 3
Tovitov Posted July 31 Posted July 31 Just now, Vermillion said: I ****ing KNEW Eric Holder was gonna pull this ****. Way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. What a waste. Way to burn your momentum. The way you need to chill and wait
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