charts discussion HDD: Adele 833k (biggest debut of the year), Taylor 165k

[Elusive Chanteuse]

2 hours ago, itsjem said:

This thread is pure madness, my goodness. As a fan of both Taylor and Adele, people giving reasoning on both sides are being so blind, I think.  Like I said, I'm a huge fan of Adele (I just bought her 30 vinyl and own her other albums as well), but there's no denying that this opening is a little underwhelming for what we expected (and from what her label expected, too). Obviously, it's still a huge opening, that's for sure, and still only a few people - namely Taylor and Drake - can even dream to come close right now. And to be fair, I think Adele would prefer her career to scale down a bit, knowing her. Still, she's humongous, and obviosly 21 and 25 are once in a lifetime things to experience not in an artist's life but in the music industry in general, and the fact that she did that twice is already astounding. You can't keep doing that forever. I don't get why people think Adele needs to be defended over this, geez. Also, I don't get why people skip all the reasonable posts and only quote the crazy posts saying that all Taylor fans are crazy. Looks to me like you like responding to them.

 

On the other hand, it baffles me that people are still trying to diminish Taylor's career after 15 years of continuous success. Only on this site I've seen having a huge fanbase being used against the artist. Being able to fidelize this many people is an achievement. Sure, if you have multiple version of your album available to buy, that helps. But that's still many people deciding to buy physical copies in 2020 and 2021. That's an achievement to me. Also, why diminish Red TV success? You are kidding yourself if you say the success was expected. Fearless TV was successful for a re-recording, but Red TV was on another level. Also, yes, this being a re-recording should work against it; it has 30 tracks, 21 of which were copy cat recordings of the original Red tracks, plus 9 new tracks, 2 of which were already known to the public (Better Man and Babe) and 1 of which is a 10 minute version of a beloved fan favourite. The fact that Taylor has a huge loyal fanbase willing to check that out and buy that should be a merit, not a reason to downplay it.

 

Finally, I don't get why you MUST choose which lady is the most successful or else you can't move on. So much for preaching female empowerment and bla bla bla. They are both miles ahead everyone else in the industry and that should be praise enough.

Reasonable

 

[Aurora]

These are absolutely amazing numbers... for literally anyone besides Adele.  She had a 6 year hype build and timed for the holiday season and isn't crossing 1M, that's a huge decline lol. Guess nobody is immune.

[idkwiam]

9 minutes ago, Marco23 said:

How much has Fearless (TV) sold in second week?

80k IIRC.

 

OT: These numbers are fantastic but I'm pretty sure Adele's team expected way more than this considering the amount of the vinyls they pre ordered.

 

[TurntUp]

Are those the final numbers? Doesn’t she still have today and tomorrow?

[Headlock]

8 hours ago, Gaia said:

I’m not saying some people aren’t hiding behind her, but acting like ANYONE who likes Adele and another artist is a fake stan only using her for her success is  

 

Part of this issue is Taylor fans having a victim complex. So obsessed with the idea that Taylor is #1 that they now think anyone who thinks otherwise is a fake Adele stan hiding behind her who secretly Stan’s some flop

 

Im not a “stan” of Adele because she doesn’t release music enough. But I do love her as an artist and own all of her albums and will continue to look forward to her music as long as she releases it. This toxic mentality Swifties have right now is deranged honestly. 

And looking at this thread so do Daydreamers 

[PopFan1996]

20 minutes ago, idkwiam said:

80k IIRC.

 

OT: These numbers are fantastic but I'm pretty sure Adele's team expected way more than this considering the amount of the vinyls they pre ordered.

 

I believe the vinyls are worldwide and not just for the US. Probably around 250-300k for the US. I believe 30 sold close to that amount of Vinyls considering it is predicted to sell over 600k physical sales alone.

Also Adele's label shipped 1.5M total in physical sales for all this rollout including CDs and vinyls so I think they already lowered their expectation and it will definitely be all sold-out ( or close enough) by the remaining weeks of the year and the first months of next year.

Impressive numbers for 2021 no matter what anyone thinks

[FAN]

33 minutes ago, TurntUp said:

Are those the final numbers? Doesn’t she still have today and tomorrow?

Idk why people keep asking this as if predictions are a new thing

[Headlock]

1 hour ago, Virtual_Insanity said:

Is it so hard for you to grasp that I am a fan of Katy AND Adele AND also BTS. 

Aren’t you forgetting Billie? 

[Gaia]

5 hours ago, Badgalbriel said:

This is such a lie 

A quick scroll through tiktok and you will see that people are literally crazy about ATW and Enchanted. People in the US simply love her and that's a fact 

Bhad Bhabie has a viral song on tik tok. I guess that Taylor’s level now  

[Rico Shameless v2]

11 hours ago, Folklore89sm said:

I think something that has come against Adele this era is that people aren't used to her singing about her life on a personal level and have been left a bit alienated by her new album filled with songs that are so specific to her own situation. The magic key to Adele's success was that she wrote simple - but great - songs about love and heartbreak on a very superficial, surface level. There were no specifics in her lyrics, no voice notes or explicit references to her own life. Everyone could listen to an Adele song and digest it easily and apply it to their own lives - only because it was so unspecific and broad. That's what gave her the cross-generation appeal she has.

I saw at least 20+ stories on IG yesterday of people listening to/posting themselves listening to “My Little Love” and stating how they relate despite not having a child. And that’s really the only song you’re describing here, not every song is like that. It’s only critical drawback has been its too-simple lyrics, actually.
 

I don’t think there should be some deep investigation into these numbers. It’s as simple as it’s been 6 years, Easy On Me was a relatively quiet return compared to the Jurassic-feel of Hello’s release and even she has stated not wanting to ever feel that immense power of success again. So the promo has been tame, pre-recorded and spread out. And they heavily leaned into streaming so that definitely had an effect. I seriously thought they would hold back for some period of time. Production delays due to the pandemic probably forced a hand somewhere.

 

Nevertheless, this is a good debut. I expected more but I can see where some issues lie. Hopefully Billboard finds her 17k more for 850k. And all of this arguing is only due to the 3m 25 did.

[Attitude]

She should release some signed digital copies real quick.

[AMIT]

But I was told that the predictions would rise and she would hit those 1M sales? 

 

But now she's basicially confirmed to do less than Lover and Folklore?

 

[Headlock]

47 minutes ago, Gaia said:

Bhad Bhabie has a viral song on tik tok. I guess that Taylor’s level now  

Are you actually trying to admonish virality on TikTok as if that isn't the number one indicator for GP interest now days 

[Cryptique]

MICHAEL BUBLE 

 

he is the KING OF CHRISTMAS at this point 

[blackbeatxx]

57 minutes ago, Rico Shameless v2 said:

I saw at least 20+ stories on IG yesterday of people listening to/posting themselves listening to “My Little Love” and stating how they relate despite not having a child. And that’s really the only song you’re describing here, not every song is like that. It’s only critical drawback has been its too-simple lyrics, actually.
 

I don’t think there should be some deep investigation into these numbers. It’s as simple as it’s been 6 years, Easy On Me was a relatively quiet return compared to the Jurassic-feel of Hello’s release and even she has stated not wanting to ever feel that immense power of success again. So the promo has been tame, pre-recorded and spread out. And they heavily leaned into streaming so that definitely had an effect. I seriously thought they would hold back for some period of time. Production delays due to the pandemic probably forced a hand somewhere.

 

Nevertheless, this is a good debut. I expected more but I can see where some issues lie. Hopefully Billboard finds her 17k more for 850k. And all of this arguing is only due to the 3m 25 did.

Very wise put 

[Eternium]

28 minutes ago, AMIT said:

But I was told that the predictions would rise and she would hit those 1M sales? 

 

But now she's basicially confirmed to do less than Lover and Folklore?

 

Why are we still comparing bundled albums to non-bundled albums? 30 is set to be the biggest debut since bundles were removed and will set the ceiling for predictions. The girls are at Adele’s neck even when she’s literally setting a bar that nobody has touched yet  

 

OT: Hope she uses that profit to actually film a second music video this era.

[AMIT]

45 minutes ago, Eternium said:

Why are we still comparing bundled albums to non-bundled albums? 30 is set to be the biggest debut since bundles were removed and will set the ceiling for predictions. The girls are at Adele’s neck even when she’s literally setting a bar that nobody has touched yet  

 

OT: Hope she uses that profit to actually film a second music video this era.

Some points were made, but hasn't vinyl consumption grown significantly since the last we've seen of bundles? I'm not claiming that's enough to offset the bundle boost, but seeing that the market is so volatile all around it's tricky to make sound comparisions right now, anyway. 

 

Still, I'm surprised the predictions didn't rise, though. 

[americanlife]

Don't forget that 25 wasn't on streaming until months after release. When 25 came out, you had to buy the album or find a leak online to hear it.

[G.U.Y_Del_Rey]

Uh, I guess the days of 1M+ debuts are over unless they allow merch bundles again or change the formula to give more weight to streaming.

[Brando]

If Taylor released a brand new album instead of Red and didn't move the date, had decent amount of promo, and had CDs and vinyls ready to ship I'm worried that she might have snatched that #1 from 30. This is a scary thought, but seems like it's true 

[Brando]

2 hours ago, AMIT said:

But I was told that the predictions would rise and she would hit those 1M sales? 

 

But now she's basicially confirmed to do less than Lover and Folklore?

 

what did Lover pull? 

[AMIT]

13 minutes ago, Brando said:

what did Lover pull? 

I'm not totally sure, but I think it was very close to 870k. 

[Alex21kw]

12 minutes ago, Brando said:

If Taylor released a brand new album instead of Red and didn't move the date, had decent amount of promo, and had CDs and vinyls ready to ship I'm worried that she might have snatched that #1 from 30. This is a scary thought, but seems like it's true 

Red did 227k in streaming for 30 tracks. Even if a brand new album did the same in SEA (which is possible, but difficult considering a brand new album would have less tracks compared to Red TV), that would mean she needed to do 600k pure sales to reach 30's numbers. That's unlikely considering Red broke the record for vinyl sales and sold more vinyls than Evermore (an original album) did in June.

 

Now, TS10 might pull a million in 2022 if the timing is right, the music is right and the hype is big. Streaming will only become bigger and vinyl sales will also increase by then

[Brando]

Just now, Alex21kw said:

Red did 227k in streaming for 30 tracks. Even if a brand new album did the same in SEA (which is possible, but difficult considering a brand new album would have less tracks compared to Red TV), that would mean she needed to do 600k pure sales to reach 30's numbers. That's unlikely considering Red broke the record for vinyl sales and sold more vinyls than Evermore (an original album) did in June.

 

Now, TS10 might pull a million in 2022 if the timing is right, the music is right and the hype is big. Streaming will only become bigger and vinyl sales will also increase by then

The number of tracks doesn't really matter. You can always play a replay button on a shorter album. And most albums have the number of plays descending based on track order, so majority of people don't go all the way down no matter the length. 

 

Taylor's album would have probably also eaten away Adele's streams seeing how her album and catalogue keep getting more streams than Adele's. The difference to overcome would have been the physicals and she already did that with Folklore and Lover. With a full promo machine and a brand new album I think she could have come on top. It would have been a fun match up for sure and the gurls would have to shut up about comparing completely different scenarios (30 vs a rerecording, vs bundles, vs no physicals available etc etc)

[dylanx]

5 minutes ago, Alex21kw said:

Red did 227k in streaming for 30 tracks. Even if a brand new album did the same in SEA (which is possible, but difficult considering a brand new album would have less tracks compared to Red TV), that would mean she needed to do 600k pure sales to reach 30's numbers. That's unlikely considering Red broke the record for vinyl sales and sold more vinyls than Evermore (an original album) did in June.

 

Now, TS10 might pull a million in 2022 if the timing is right, the music is right and the hype is big. Streaming will only become bigger and vinyl sales will also increase by then

RED was seriously supply constrained in a way 30 was not- I'm sure Taylor can clear out 500k physical stock CD's + Vinyls assuming she can make that many available.

 

Don't think Republic was expecting this kind of response to RED after Fearless did just okay.