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2017 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (81% IN)


Ger

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Despacito is catching up with SOY, but both songs will remain on the charts through the end of the 2017 CY. I'm not sure Despacito will have the legs of SOY though.

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On 7/9/2017 at 10:29 AM, andthenwekiss said:

@Ger-55 do you know where's Sorry Not Sorry as of now? 

18 hours ago, Mr. Duff said:

Can Demi's Sorry Not Sorry get in the top 100?

Yep, I have her at #112, it just needs this week's points to be inside Top 100.

 

On 9/9/2017 at 5:22 PM, NoMythologies said:

@Ger-55 You're a legend for keeping up with this. :worship: Seriously, I've tried before and have never been able to sort out all the points for each song. It's a lot of work. Thanks for doing it sis! It's much appreciated.

Thank you so much for all those words, that means a lot to me, it's no easy and it takes so much time, but I kinda enjoy it. Hope to keep it up to date now. :laugh: 

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1 minute ago, Ger-55 said:

Yep, I have her at #112, it just needs this week's points to be inside Top 100.

 

Great! Thanks so much!

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On 2017-8-13 at 4:33 AM, Ger-55 said:

14 Zedd & Alessia Cara Stay 6,805 (+166)

aaah my talented fave :alexz:can she keep TOP 15 until the end of the year? or even grow?

 

On 2017-8-13 at 4:33 AM, Ger-55 said:

22 Alessia Cara Scars to Your Beautiful 5,858

a solo HIT :clap3: others cant relate :clap3:  

Edited by Mr. Adele
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2 hours ago, Mr. Adele said:

aaah my talented fave :alexz:can she keep TOP 15 until the end of the year? or even grow?

I think she's getting the Top 15, but not higher, "Believer" is coming pretty fast.

 

2 hours ago, Henstridge said:

Are Sign Of The Times and Malibu safe? I really want them to make the year end list, so they could be on mine too :chick3:

I think they could end up on the 90's, but I wanna believe they're gonna hold on. :dancehall:

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3 hours ago, Ger-55 said:

 

Thank you so much for all those words, that means a lot to me, it's no easy and it takes so much time, but I kinda enjoy it. Hope to keep it up to date now. :laugh: 

I hear ya... I slowly chug away at my own list in my down time. It's quite relaxing. But I'm still working on the songs from the beginning of the year. :rip: Figuring out all of Shape of You's points alone took me like hours :dies:  

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Is the list accurate because some songs seem really high despite of not very high peak and normal longevity. It Ain't Me for example

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On 9/10/2017 at 5:07 AM, brianc33616 said:

Despacito is catching up with SOY, but both songs will remain on the charts through the end of the 2017 CY. I'm not sure Despacito will have the legs of SOY though.

Yeah, SOy has the benefit of being an overall hit on pop hot ac etc. Despacito might not get much more play pass this month since it's known as a summer song.

 

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3 hours ago, KKCuteCat said:

Is the list accurate because some songs seem really high despite of not very high peak and normal longevity. It Ain't Me for example

It Ain't Me spent 18 weeks in the top 20, most of which it spent hovering close to the top 10. Plus, it was in the top 30 for most of its run. It didn't peak high but was really consistent for weeks, points-wise.

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Dead at Closer still being #4. I'm guessing Humble will pass it though? A top 5 year end for a song released mid-2016 is still awesome.

 

Also the fact that the first woman on the list is Alessia at #14 :rip:

Edited by bjnono001
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2 hours ago, bjnono001 said:

Also the fact that the first woman on the list is Alessia at #14 :rip:

Halsey at #4 :eli: 

 

7 hours ago, cuneytb said:

What about The Cure and Praying? 

"The Cure" was close, accumulated 1,372 points, but didn't chart anymore. "Praying" is closing on at #117 with 1,294 points.

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29 minutes ago, FanOfPop said:

What about "Sorry Not Sorry"?

deleted from existance

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18 hours ago, NoMythologies said:

It Ain't Me spent 18 weeks in the top 20, most of which it spent hovering close to the top 10. Plus, it was in the top 30 for most of its run. It didn't peak high but was really consistent for weeks, points-wise.

Some song stayed at Top 10 for like 18 weeks and still finish outside Top 10 year end-chart (Avril Lavigne's GF for example and that song even reached #1, eventually ranked at #12 on BB YEC 2007). 18 weeks of top 20 is really good for her but isn't a huge achievement to me.

Edited by KKCuteCat
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The last song that finished in the year end top 10 without reaching the top 10 on Billboard was Paula Cole - I Don't Wanna Wait (Peak #11)

Could James Arthur do the same with "Say You Won’t Let Go"?

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On 9/12/2017 at 8:17 AM, Green said:

The last song that finished in the year end top 10 without reaching the top 10 on Billboard was Paula Cole - I Don't Wanna Wait (Peak #11)

Could James Arthur do the same with "Say You Won’t Let Go"?

Also, in 1973, Kris Kristofferson's "Why Me" peaked at #16 on the weekly Hot 100. However, since the song spent 19 weeks in the Top 40 and 38 weeks on the Hot 100, far more than any other song that year (way before the SoundScan era), Kris finished at #6 on the 1973 Year End Hot 100.

 

And, Carrie Underwood's "Before He Cheats" only spent two weeks in the Top 10, peaking at #8. But she finished at #6 on the 2006 Year End Hot 100.

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On 9/11/2017 at 9:06 AM, slw84 said:

Yeah, SOy has the benefit of being an overall hit on pop hot ac etc. Despacito might not get much more play pass this month since it's known as a summer song.

 

I think Despacito will win SOTY, Digital SOTY, and streaming SOTY at the 2018 BBMAs. But Despacito won't pass SOY in time to reach #1 on the 2017 Year End Hot 100.

 

However, even for the BBMAs, Despacito only has one more chart week left than SOY. So SOY will go superrecurrent just one week before Despacito. That means Despacito must build a large streaming and sales and streaming lead over SOY to surpass Ed before the BBMAs.

 

I think this can happen, but we will have to wait and see what kind of sales and streaming advantage Despacito can gain over SOY in both songs remaining weeks on the chart. Ed has a tremendous airplay lead, and will win Airplay SOTY at the BBMAs and 2017 YE Airplay song of the year too.

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That's What I Like and HUMBLE. :clap3: 

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4 hours ago, brianc33616 said:

I think Despacito will win SOTY, Digital SOTY, and streaming SOTY at the 2018 BBMAs. But Despacito won't pass SOY in time to reach #1 on the 2017 Year End Hot 100.

 

However, even for the BBMAs, Despacito only has one more chart week left than SOY. So SOY will go superrecurrent just one week before Despacito. That means Despacito must build a large streaming and sales and streaming lead over SOY to surpass Ed before the BBMAs.

 

I think this can happen, but we will have to wait and see what kind of sales and streaming advantage Despacito can gain over SOY in both songs remaining weeks on the chart. Ed has a tremendous airplay lead, and will win Airplay SOTY at the BBMAs and 2017 YE Airplay song of the year too.

 

Ed will also get a bigger airplay push because of the year end countdowns.

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On 9/11/2017 at 9:23 AM, NoMythologies said:

It Ain't Me spent 18 weeks in the top 20, most of which it spent hovering close to the top 10. Plus, it was in the top 30 for most of its run. It didn't peak high but was really consistent for weeks, points-wise.

I think Body Like A Back Road has spent 30 weeks in the Top 20. It debuted at #38, jumped to #21, and from there I think it was in the Top 20 after that the entire time. I know when Back Road reentered the Top 10, Gary said it had spent 11 weeks between 11-16 between its separate T 10 runs. I think it'll finish in the Top 10 for 2017, though I don't know if it can climb much above 8-9. I think it can pass Mars, but I'm not sure about the CP/CS collab at #7.

 

Cruise was #9 for 2013, but FGL benefited heavily from the Nelly remix. I'm not sure if Cruise reached 2012's YE H 100. Hunt has a remix out there, but 95%+ of its points come from the original version. It's spent two weeks on the Dance Mix Show Airplay Chart, and its total sales are ever so slightly higher than the original version. But Hunt's point total is almost entirely due to the song's original version.

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1 hour ago, Pacaveli said:

@Ger-55 43rd week is missing! 

Give him time lol.

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