charts discussion 2017 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (81% IN)

[DELE2125]

16 hours ago, Ger-55 said:

Haven't completely finished the data (except for Top 20 and some other songs), but I have it at #34, it was a cute hit, definetely. 

It was bigger than "Closer" in my heart 

[potent]

James Arthur top 10 despite never going top 10 on the weekly chart  

Sam Hunt's longevity is also impressive and he should keep gaining points for quite some time... 

[Deemy]

Where's Love On the Brain? Hard to believe that is not at least top 15. 

[GokuRed]

Chainsmokers actually slaying

 

[Mr Boots]

On August 16, 2017 at 7:08 PM, Deemy said:

Where's Love On the Brain? Hard to believe that is not at least top 15. 

#22

[Ivan]

Where is the update of this?

[Ger]

Building Year-End Chart

Week: #41/52 (79%)

 

 

 

Rank	Artist	Song	Total Points
01	Ed Sheeran	Shape of You	16,130 (+264)
02	Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee	Despacito (Remix) (feat. Justin Bieber)	14,032 (+550)
03	Bruno Mars	That’s What I Like	12,607 (+277)
04	The Chainsmokers	Closer (feat. Halsey)	9,094
05	Migos	Bad and Boujee (feat. Lil Uzi Vert)	9,028
06	Kendrick Lamar	HUMBLE.	8,009 (+214)
07	Bruno Mars	24K Magic	7,694
08	The Chainsmokers & Coldplay	Something Just Like This	7,634 (+193)
09	DJ Khaled	I’m the One (feat. Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance The Rapper & Lil Wayne)	7,455 (+224)
10	Sam Hunt	Body Like A Back Road	7,361 (+252)
11	James Arthur	Say You Won’t Let Go	7,201 (+154)
12	Future	Mask Off	7,112 (+155)
13	Post Malone	Congratulations (feat. Quavo)	7,105 (+231)
14	Zedd & Alessia Cara	Stay	6,639 (+177)
15	The Weeknd	Starboy (feat. Daft Punk)	6,475
16	Rae Sremmurd	Black Beatles (feat. Gucci Mane)	6,307
17	ZAYN & Taylor Swift	I Don’t Wanna Live Forever (Fifty Shades Darker)	6,244
18	Imagine Dragons	Believer	6,118 (+324)
19	KYLE	iSpy (feat. Lil Yachty)	6,006
20	Kygo & Selena Gomez	It Ain’t Me	5,995 (+134)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rank	Artist	Song	Total Points
21	Alessia Cara	Scars to Your Beautiful	5,858
22	Lil Uzi Vert	XO TOUR Llif3	5,796 (+188)
23	Julia Michaels	Issues	5,772
24	Childish Gambino	Redbone	5,390 (+217)
25	Khalid	Location	5,220 (+178)
26	Rihanna	Love On the Brain	5,154
27	Maroon 5	Don’t Wanna Know (feat. Kendrick Lamar)	4,979
28	The Weeknd	I Feel It Coming (feat. Daft Punk)	4,904
29	Big Sean	Bounce Back	4,812
30	Drake	Fake Love	4,787
31	Ed Sheeran	Castle On the Hill	4,677 (+116)
32	French Montana	Unforgettable (feat. Swae Lee)	4,654 (+323)
33	Machine Gun Kelly & Camila Cabello	Bad Things	4,497
34	The Chainsmokers	Paris	4,357
35	Ariana Grande	Side to Side (feat. Nicki Minaj)	4,268
36	Clean Bandit	Rockabye (feat. Sean Paula & Anne-Marie)	4,201
37	DJ Snake	Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber)	4,172
38	Shawn Mendes	There’s Nothing Holdin’ Me Back	4,113 (+308)
39	DJ Khaled	Wild Thoughts (feat. Rihanna & Bryson Tiller)	3,980 (+429)
40	Justin Timberlake	CAN’T STOP THE FEELING!	3,926
41	Migos	T-Shirt	3,902
42	Shawn Mendes	Mercy	3,881
43	Kodak Black	Tunnel Vision	3,798
44	Charlie Puth	Attention	3,742 (+324)
45	Brett Young	In Case You Didn’t Know	3,577
46	Ayo & Teo	Rolex	3,506
47	twenty one pilots	Heathens	3,466
48	Halsey	Now or Never	3,400 (+122)
49	Aminé	Caroline	3,252
50	Kendrick Lamar	DNA.	3,245 (+83)
51	Rae Sremmurd	Swang	3,137
52	Drake	Passionfruit	3,115
53	Niall Horan	Slow Hands	3,035 (+251)
54	Travis Scott	goosebumps	3,009
55	Maroon 5	Cold (feat. Future)	2,974
56	Calvin Harris	Slide (feat. Frank Ocean & Migos)	2,792
57	Zay Hilfigerrr & Zayion McCall	Juju On That Beat (TZ Anthem)	2,717
58	D.R.A.M.	Broccoli (feat. Lil Yachty)	2,689
59	Jon Bellion	All Time Low	2,657
60	Katy Perry	Chained to the Rhythm	2,617
61	Luke Combs	Hurricane	2,532
62	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Drowning (feat. Kodak Black)	2,478 (+117)
63	Hailee Steinfeld & Grey	Starving (feat. Zedd)	2,460
64	Jason Derulo	Swalla (feat. Nicki Minaj & Ty Dolla $ign)	2,449
65	Migos	Slippery (feat. Gucci Mane)	2,432
66	Liam Payne	Strip That Down (feat. Quavo)	2,429 (+256)
67	Harry Styles	Sign of the Times	2,365
68	ADELE	Water Under the Bridge	2,338
69	Miley Cyrus	Malibu	2,305
70	Marian Hill	Down	2,292
71	YFN Lucci	Everyday We Lit (feat. PnB Rock)	2,282 (+120)
72	Gucci Mane	Both (feat. Drake)	2,275
73	Playboi Carti	Magnolia	2,227 (+117)
74	Shawn Mendes	Treat You Better	2,205
75	Keith Urban	The Fighter (feat. Carrie Underwood)	2,180
76	XXXTENTACION	Look At Me!	2,144
77	Kendrick Lamar	LOYALTY. (FEAT. RIHANNA.)	2,106 (+144)
78	Jon Pardi	Dirt On My Boots	2,054
79	Niall Horan	This Town	1,988
80	Lady Gaga	Million Reasons	1,986
81	Kendrick Lamar	LOVE. (FEAT. ZACARI.)	1,980 (+76)
82	Thomas Rhett	Craving You (feat. Maren Morris)	1,979
83	J. Cole	Deja Vu	1,888
84	Chris Brown	Party (feat. Usher & Gucci Mane)	1,857
85	Selena Gomez	Bad Liar	1,855
86	Drake	Portland (feat. Quavo & Travis Scott)	1,829
87	Linkin Park	Heavy (feat. Kiiara)	1,816
88	Little Big Town	Better Man	1,763
89	John Legend	Love Me Now	1,735
90	Sia	Cheap Thrills (feat. Sean Paul)	1,721
91	Logic	1-800-273-8255 (feat. Alessia Cara & Khalid)	1,715 (+160)
92	Tee Grizzley	First Day Out	1,706
93	Florida Georgia Line	God, Your Mama, And Me (feat. Backstreet Boys)	1,705
94	Sia	The Greatest (feat. Kendrick Lamar)	1,683
95	Cardi B	Bodak Yellow (Money Moves)	1,679 (+400)
96	Auli’i Cravalho	How Far I’ll Go	1,678
97	Calvin Harris	Feels (feat. Pharrell Williams, Katy Perry & Big Sean)	1,657 (+189)
98	Dylan Scott	My Girl	1,652 (+71)
99	The Weeknd	Party Monster	1,605
100	David Guetta	2U (feat. Justin Bieber)	1,585 (+74)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Info The points are based on accumulated activity during each song's Hot 100 run, translated on the most recent formula (after the adjustment). For more detailed data, feel confident to ask me. 

 

Estimations by component

 

 Most Streamed Songs:

1. Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee - "Despacito (Remix)" 1,170.7M
2. Ed Sheeran - "Shape of You" 1,052M
3. Migos - "Bad and Boujee (feat. Lil Uzi Vert)" 932.8M
4. Bruno Mars - "That's What I Like" 868.0M
5. Kendrick Lamar - "HUMBLE." 780.7M
6. Post Malone - "Congratulations (feat. Quavo)" 773.5M
7. Future - "Mask Off" 760.0M
8. Lil Uzi Vert - "XO TOUR Llif3" 690.8M
9. The Chainsmokers - "Closer (feat. Halsey)" 642.5M
10. DJ Khaled - "I'm the One (feat. Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance The Rapper & Lil Wayne)" 628.6M

 

Most Played Songs on Radio

1. Ed Sheeran - "Shape of You" 4.469B
2. Bruno Mars - "That's What I Like 3.649B
3. Alessia Cara - "Scars to Your Beautiful" 2.808B
4. The Chainsmokers - "Closer (feat. Halsey)" 2.700B
5. The Chainsmokers & Coldplay - "Something Just Like This" 2.465B
6. Maroon 5 - "Don't Wanna Know (feat. Kendrick Lamar)" 2.271B
7. Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee - "Despacito (Remix)" 2.243B
8. Zedd & Alessia Cara - "Stay" 2.221B
9. Bruno Mars - "24K Magic" 2.164B
10. James Arthur - "Say You Won't Let Go" 2.101B

 

Best Selling Songs

1. Ed Sheeran - "Shape of You" 2,396,000
2. Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee - "Despacito (Remix)" 2,239,000
3. Sam Hunt - "Body Like A Back Road" 1,571,000
4. Bruno Mars - "That's What I Like" 1,540,000
5. Bruno Mars - "24K Magic" 1,312,000
6. ZAYN & TAYLOR SWIFT - "I Don't Wanna Live Forever (Fifty Shades Darker)" 1,298,000
7. Imagine Dragons - "Believer" 1,238,000
8. The Chainsmokers & Coldplay - "Something Just Like This" 1,190,000
9. James Arthur - "Say You Won't Let Go" 1,149,000
10. Rae Sremmurd - "Black Beatles (feat. Gucci Mane)" 1,013,000

 

Additional info 2016's Final Predictions

Edited September 6, 2017 by Ger-55

[Green]

Grammys Under The Bridge charting despite of not going top 20  

 

I hope it stays in the top by the year end chart

 

 

Sam Hunt pulling an "I'm Yours"  

Edited September 6, 2017 by Green

[Green]

@Ger-55 Does Sam Hunt has the top 10 on lock? The longevity has been impressive.

[Cap10Planet]

I hope "Humble." overtakes "Bad and Boujee."

[Just a Gay on ATRL]

Is there 0 chance of Desapcito catching up to Shape of You?

[IBeMe]

I'm a little surprised that Million Reasons is going to end up at around #80 on the YE charts...I know some of it's 1M sales are split with 2016 but didn't it sell about 700k in 2017? I guess streaming really is that important now...damn.

[kstreaming]

not alessia snatching two top 25 songs, but the song with logic is coming for top 50 (since it's far from peaking) by the end of the year she's going to have 3 top 50 songs, the only female to have that (apart from maybe taylor) she won this year, all of that without being over exposed

[Blue Rose]

Closer being top5 in 2017  

[Ger]

5 hours ago, Green said:

@Ger-55 Does Sam Hunt has the top 10 on lock? The longevity has been impressive.

There are still 11 weeks to be reported, but I do believe he's going to end up higher than the current #10 spot. It's one of the most impressive smashes of the year, hands down.  

 

4 hours ago, Cap10Planet said:

I hope "Humble." overtakes "Bad and Boujee."

And it looks it's going to happen.

 

4 hours ago, MusicTalker said:

Is there 0 chance of Desapcito catching up to Shape of You?

Yep, SOY's longevity is insane, it's decreasing very slowly, and the gap is significant.

 

3 hours ago, Superpower said:

Closer being top5 in 2017  

Higher than last year.  

 

4 hours ago, IBeMe said:

I'm a little surprised that Million Reasons is going to end up at around #80 on the YE charts...I know some of it's 1M sales are split with 2016 but didn't it sell about 700k in 2017? I guess streaming really is that important now...damn.

Yep, 700k are from this year. Problem was the poor radio support (it could do so much better), and yes, streaming sucked.

[andthenwekiss]

@Ger-55 do you know where's Sorry Not Sorry as of now? 

[UNNAMI]

On 6.09.2017 at 7:04 PM, Green said:

@Ger-55 Does Sam Hunt has the top 10 on lock? The longevity has been impressive.

there's no song that can enter top 10 unless it will have like 1000+ every week

 

taylor swift got 1000 points this week but even if she will have 500+ points next 8 weeks it's still 4000,  - 5000 overall and that will give her top 20

[soramaro]

On 06/09/2017 at 8:07 PM, IBeMe said:

I'm a little surprised that Million Reasons is going to end up at around #80 on the YE charts...I know some of it's 1M sales are split with 2016 but didn't it sell about 700k in 2017? I guess streaming really is that important now...damn.

It only spent 2 weeks in the top 20 and 20 total weeks on the chart

[soramaro]

LOTB at #26  Hopefully it'll remain in the Top 40

Rih will have 3 songs in the top 100 again this year  

[DELE2125]

So, "Water Under The Bridge" without any discount, music video, audio video, or any performance was bigger this year than "Million Reasons"? 

 

"Closer" needs to be pushed out of the top 10 somehow. Ugh annoying song. 

[NoMythologies]

@Ger-55 You're a legend for keeping up with this.  Seriously, I've tried before and have never been able to sort out all the points for each song. It's a lot of work. Thanks for doing it sis! It's much appreciated.

[Feather]

People commenting on female domination: we had a big year where Kesha, Rihanna, Katy, Britney, Gaga all dominated the charts all at once a couple years back. It wasn't that too long ago but again I do hope to see that again. 

 

And wow at Julia Michaels, I didn't even know Issues was that big. Nobody talks about it hear, will definitely give her a listen. 

[Ger]

Building Year-End Chart

Week: #42/52 (81%)

 

 

 

Rank	Artist	Song	Total Points
01	Ed Sheeran	Shape of You	16,389 (+259)
02	Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee	Despacito (Remix) (feat. Justin Bieber)	14,520 (+488)
03	Bruno Mars	That’s What I Like	12,846 (+239)
04	The Chainsmokers	Closer (feat. Halsey)	9,094
05	Migos	Bad and Boujee (feat. Lil Uzi Vert)	9,028
06	Kendrick Lamar	HUMBLE.	8,261 (+252)
07	The Chainsmokers & Coldplay	Something Just Like This	7,814 (+180)
08	Bruno Mars	24K Magic	7,694
09	DJ Khaled	I’m the One (feat. Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance The Rapper & Lil Wayne)	7,646 (+192)
10	Sam Hunt	Body Like A Back Road	7,585 (+225)
11	James Arthur	Say You Won’t Let Go	7,349 (+148)
12	Post Malone	Congratulations (feat. Quavo)	7,308 (+203)
13	Future	Mask Off	7,253 (+141)
14	Zedd & Alessia Cara	Stay	6,805 (+166)
15	The Weeknd	Starboy (feat. Daft Punk)	6,475
16	Imagine Dragons	Believer	6,428 (+310)
17	Rae Sremmurd	Black Beatles (feat. Gucci Mane)	6,307
18	ZAYN & Taylor Swift	I Don’t Wanna Live Forever (Fifty Shades Darker)	6,244
19	Kygo & Selena Gomez	It Ain’t Me	6,122 (+127)
20	Lil Uzi Vert	XO TOUR Llif3	6,031 (+240)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rank	Artist	Song	Total Points
21	KYLE	iSpy (feat. Lil Yachty)	6,006
22	Alessia Cara	Scars to Your Beautiful	5,858
23	Julia Michaels	Issues	5,772
24	Childish Gambino	Redbone	5,580 (+190)
25	Khalid	Location	5,387 (+167)
26	Rihanna	Love On the Brain	5,154
27	Maroon 5	Don’t Wanna Know (feat. Kendrick Lamar)	4,979
28	French Montana	Unforgettable (feat. Swae Lee)	4,964 (+310)
29	The Weeknd	I Feel It Coming (feat. Daft Punk)	4,904
30	Big Sean	Bounce Back	4,812
31	Drake	Fake Love	4,787
32	Ed Sheeran	Castle On the Hill	4,677
33	Machine Gun Kelly & Camila Cabello	Bad Things	4,497
34	Shawn Mendes	There’s Nothing Holdin’ Me Back	4,423 (+309)
35	DJ Khaled	Wild Thoughts (feat. Rihanna & Bryson Tiller)	3,366 (+386)
36	The Chainsmokers	Paris	4,357
37	Ariana Grande	Side to Side (feat. Nicki Minaj)	4,268
38	Clean Bandit	Rockabye (feat. Sean Paula & Anne-Marie)	4,201
39	DJ Snake	Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber)	4,172
40	Charlie Puth	Attention	4,056 (+314)
41	Justin Timberlake	CAN’T STOP THE FEELING!	3,926
42	Migos	T-Shirt	3,902
43	Shawn Mendes	Mercy	3,881
44	Kodak Black	Tunnel Vision	3,798
45	Brett Young	In Case You Didn’t Know	3,577
46	Ayo & Teo	Rolex	3,506
47	twenty one pilots	Heathens	3,466
48	Halsey	Now or Never	3,400
49	Kendrick Lamar	DNA.	3,339 (+94)
50	Niall Horan	Slow Hands	3,286 (+251)
51	Aminé	Caroline	3,252
52	Rae Sremmurd	Swang	3,137
53	Drake	Passionfruit	3,115
54	Travis Scott	goosebumps	3,009
55	Maroon 5	Cold (feat. Future)	2,974
56	Calvin Harris	Slide (feat. Frank Ocean & Migos)	2,792
57	Zay Hilfigerrr & Zayion McCall	Juju On That Beat (TZ Anthem)	2,717
58	D.R.A.M.	Broccoli (feat. Lil Yachty)	2,689
59	Liam Payne	Strip That Down (feat. Quavo)	2,689 (+260)
60	Jon Bellion	All Time Low	2,657
61	Katy Perry	Chained to the Rhythm (feat. Skip Marley)	2,617
62	Luke Combs	Hurricane	2,532
63	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Drowning (feat. Kodak Black)	2,478
64	Hailee Steinfeld & Grey	Starving (feat. Zedd)	2,460
65	Jason Derulo	Swalla (feat. Nicki Minaj & Ty Dolla $ign)	2,449
66	Migos	Slippery (feat. Gucci Mane)	2,432
67	Harry Styles	Sign of the Times	2,365
68	ADELE	Water Under the Bridge	2,338
69	Playboi Carti	Magnolia	2,334 (+107)
70	Miley Cyrus	Malibu	2,305
71	Marian Hill	Down	2,292
72	YFN Lucci	Everyday We Lit (feat. PnB Rock)	2,282
73	Gucci Mane	Both (feat. Drake)	2,275
74	Kendrick Lamar	LOYALTY. (FEAT. RIHANNA.)	2,250 (+144)
75	Shawn Mendes	Treat You Better	2,205
76	Keith Urban	The Fighter (feat. Carrie Underwood)	2,180
77	XXXTENTACION	Look At Me!	2,144
78	Cardi B	Bodak Yellow (Money Moves)	2,086 (+407)
79	Kendrick Lamar	LOVE. (FEAT. ZACARI.)	2,055 (+75)
80	Jon Pardi	Dirt On My Boots	2,054
81	Logic	1-800-273-8255 (feat. Alessia Cara & Khalid)	2,001 (+276)
82	Niall Horan	This Town	1,988
83	Lady Gaga	Million Reasons	1,986
84	Thomas Rhett	Craving You (feat. Maren Morris)	1,979
85	J. Cole	Deja Vu	1,888
86	Chris Brown	Party (feat. Usher & Gucci Mane)	1,857
87	Selena Gomez	Bad Liar	1,855
88	Calvin Harris	Feels (feat. Pharrell Williams, Katy Perry & Big Sean)	1,854 (+197)
89	Drake	Portland (feat. Quavo & Travis Scott)	1,829
90	Linkin Park	Heavy (feat. Kiiara)	1,816
91	Little Big Town	Better Man	1,763
92	John Legend	Love Me Now	1,735
93	Dylan Scott	My Girl	1,723 (+71)
94	21 Savage	Bank Account	1,721 (+258)
95	Sia	Cheap Thrills (feat. Sean Paul)	1,721
96	Tee Grizzley	First Day Out	1,706
97	Florida Georgia Line	God, Your Mama, And Me (feat. Backstreet Boys)	1,705
98	Sia	The Greatest (feat. Kendrick Lamar)	1,683
99	Auli’i Cravalho	How Far I’ll Go	1,678
100	The Weeknd	Party Monster	1,605

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Info The points are based on accumulated activity during each song's Hot 100 run, translated on the most recent formula (after the adjustment). For more detailed data, feel confident to ask me. 

 

Additional info 2016's Final Predictions

[Mr. Duff]

Can Demi's Sorry Not Sorry get in the top 100?

[IVY]

Quote

 

03	Bruno Mars	That’s What I Like	12,846 (+239)
08	Bruno Mars	24K Magic	7,694